A clear pattern is showing -- at least for the two previous recessions -- when looking at the 3-month yield on monthly chart. The long stochastic has given strong indication twice before and is signaling imminent recession again. We'll see how it plays out, but I am more convinced than ever recession is very near and may have already begun.
Expect oil to test broken trendline resistance and fail around $72. Can short from there to convergence of lower trendline support and price structure around $60. Longer term it looks like oil is heading for a trading range.
Spread is currently at 30 basis points, the lowest it has been since 2005 and 1999. Both times a major recession followed. Exact timing for the bottoming of the yield spread and the S&P500 peak can vary. A recession is on the way, but until the yield spread bottoms, it will pay to stay long the market.
IWM is currently stuck in a trading range 133.50 to 138. A close below 133 would likely be followed by a move lower to support at 130 in the short term. A close above the range would indicate another leg up.
The long term view of JPM seems like it is poised for a short. I don't have the guts to put on a big short here, but I'm not buying yet either.
Economic policy expectations seems to favor accelerated interest rate increases which should be a positive for banks.