jonnieking

jonnieking

I could see CRYPTOCAP:USDT.D playing out like this. This November data also coincides with my BTC Cycle Thesis in November. Lotsa other macro factors and indicators at play for a cycle top, but this lines up nicely and where I'll be taking a heavy chunk of profits.

jonnieking

Don't shoot the messenger, but the MAJORITY of your Alts need to NUKE ~25% before Alt Season 🫨 This lines up with prior cycle support before Alt Season blastoff. First step is to reclaim the EMA9, which they have failed to against BTC. The lack of buying Volume supports this thesis for the trend to continue downwards.

jonnieking

I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but the face-melting Alt Season we are all patiently awaiting is not arriving until BTC.D reaches 71% Having said that, there WILL be an outlier of Alts that outperform CRYPTOCAP:BTC , such as CRYPTOCAP:SOL 💯

jonnieking

Could it really be this simple? Maybe we can just throw Global M2 out the window and track TVC:GOLD with a 12-Week Lead. Someone pointed this out to me yesterday when I posted Gold's near 1/1 tracking with Global M2. *Note the deviation in CRYPTOCAP:BTC PA from the ETF hype.

jonnieking

It's amazing how accurate TVC:GOLD follows Global M2 with NO LEAD. Near instant liquidity injection into the asset as the money supply rises 🪙 I do not see the price of Gold falling until Global M2 does.

jonnieking

Pretty crazy how accurate ₿itcoin PA follows my squiggles, eh? 🤓 CRYPTOCAP:BTC has Closed above the 200DMA with a massive 25% rally over the past two weeks. Next target $100k, but expect a retest of the 200DMA ~$88,5

jonnieking

Which is the best to track ₿itcoin price action? Lots of macro gurus have been arguing over the two. For comparison, I have indexes for both metrics on a 12-Week Lead, tracking the 4 largest central banks: The Federal Reserve (including TGA & RRP), People’s Bank of China, European Central Bank and Bank of Japan. Let’s start by defining each. Global M2 Money...

jonnieking

They say Ethereum is the Silver to ₿itcoin being Gold. If that's the case, does that mean that the ceiling for CRYPTOCAP:ETH will forever be stuck at $4,800 just like TVC:SILVER being capped at $48 for the past 45 years? Does anyone really think ETH will be higher than $4,800 in 45 years???😆 A true store of value 💯

jonnieking

Grabbed all downside liquidity. Helium Up 60% on the week. W bottom reversal pattern formed. Broke out of a 16-week downtrend, but got rejected at .236 Fib Closed above the EMA9, which is now support.

jonnieking

Big Bullish Engulfing candle for Solana on the weekly close. Needs to breakthrough EMA9 and claim as support. If not, we could see an inverse head and shoulders reversal pattern formed ~$112 before the next leg up.

jonnieking

Lately I've been seeing a lot of people incorrectly state that the Yield Curve is currently inverted. IT IS NOT. Easily measurable 10Y - 2Y. Google the definition if you need to. I laid out the impact of the yield curve inverting against the S&P 500. In most cases, you can see SP:SPX sells off slightly after inverting. The higher the spread, the healthier...

jonnieking

If CRYPTOCAP:BTC can break back above ~$84k then we could continue to follow my OG setup (yellow) and rip, but since PA dumped slightly below the 50WMA it technically invalidated my inverse h & s idea. A rejection of $84k would dump us back to ~$78k to form the right shoulder (red) and complete the setup. nonetheless, i believe we've seen the bottom 👋

jonnieking

As expected, CRYPTOCAP:BTC retested the 50WMA for the first time since September 2024 (217 days ago). ₿itcoin historically has outsized reactions when this happens.

jonnieking

NASDAQ fell another 4% touching down 26% S&P 500 walking a tight rope falling 21% to play with the idea of a Bear Market, but has rebounded a bit. NASDAQ:QQQ did have a stronger response from buyers than SP:SPX Nonetheless, we would need several WEEKLY closes sub 20% losses to enter a textbook Bear Market.

jonnieking

And just like that, the Death Cross has formed the right shoulder for the Inverse H & S idea I formed on March 14th We may sit a bit more downside to retest the 50WMA at $76k for confirmation If we get a V-shaped recovery tomorrow, this very well could be the bottom for CRYPTOCAP:BTC

jonnieking

NASDAQ HAS OFFICIALLY ENTERED A BEAR MARKET, DOWN ~22% NASDAQ:QQQ 2022 Bear Market bottomed ~37% just below the 200WMA S&P 500 is not quite there yet, down only ~17.5% SP:SPX 2022 Bear Market bottomed ~27% a tick below the 200WMA

jonnieking

The TVC:VIX has only hit above 45 on 5 occasions in the history of CRYPTOCAP:BTC Each time it did, BTC pumped at least 20%

jonnieking

As expected, CRYPTOCAP:BTC is rolling over, hopefully to form that right shoulder for the inverse h & s patter to confirm the next leg up. This dumped is fueled by the impending death cross, which historically marks big reversals, since the cross is already priced in.