About meJust a guy whose specialisation in 17th century French philosophy led him to a job leading a healthtech innovation team. Hopefully, his hobby as an amateur trader will allow him to retire early as a gentleman woodworker/farmer.
• No real change from my original post on BTC.D SHORT.
• Just some minor adjustments to update the chart.
• Furthermore, I’ve put in Elliott waves to further highlight the similarities between this bullrun and the previous.
• Wave C will become more apparent when the 20W SMA crosses over the 21W EMA.
• By the way, as per my original post on BTC.D SHORT, NFTs are booming.
• DXY is an important chart which is often neglected to one’s loss.
• E.g. BTCUSD has been stagnating recently because of DXY temporarily trending upwards the past 2 days.
• Anyway, DXY has been in a downward parallel channel since 1986.
• We have reached the top end of the channel, and are currently in wave C of the correction.
• Monthly RSI is evidently...
On the weekly,
* BTCUSD has bounced off the 20W SMA (bullrun support line), and stayed above it.
* BTCUSD 21W EMA has crossed over the 20W SMA; this shows upwards momentum.
* BTCUSD has crossed the 8W SMA, and stayed above it; this shows strong upwards momentum.
On the monthly,
* RSI is currently at 71.35.
* If 1) BTCUSD monthly RSI trend grows at a constant...
* Very dubious speculation.
* Nonetheless, XEMUSD's behaviour during this BTCUSD bullrun is very similar to the previous.
* XEMUSD's behaviour during the 1st half of this BTCUSD bullrun and its behaviour during this mid-cycle consolidation period--temporal milestones as measured per BTCUSD and NOT XEMUSD--are both very similar to that of the last BTCUSD bullrun.
* Long-term parallel channels on the weekly chart for both price and RSI.
* Cup and handle completing along the trendline from mid-cycle top to top of the mid-cycle consolidation phase.
* 21W EMA crossed above 20W SMA.
* If ENJUSDT holds above $2.18, preferably closing a weekly candle above this level, then this bodes well for ENJUSDT.
* If weekly RSI holds above...
* BTCUSD has been as regular as clockwork on the macro scale.
* Dubious speculation: if BTCUSD monthly RSI were to grow at current rate,
* Would we see BTCUSD 2nd monthly RSI peak in Mar'22?
* Would this, as per previous bull runs, give us a BTCUSD peak in Apr'22?
* (Gut tells me that BTCUSD will peak in end-Mar'22 / early-Apr'22.)
* (Again, gut tells me that the...
I'm more a technical person than a fundamental analyst, but there are times when FA helps.
BTC's mid-cycle consolidation is usually heralded by China FUD which are usually subsequently found to be fake news. It is the same-old FUD again this time. China has outlawed cryptocurrencies and Evergrande is crashing! When it is just the cracking down of monopolies,...
* BTCUSDT has been stuck in the doldrums due to DXY trending upwards.
* DXY will be meeting resistance soon, and may trend downwards ¬11 Oct.
* Previous mid-cycle consolidation periods in the 2013 and 2017 bullruns ended with bounces off the 20W SMA.
* Would we see continued testing of the 20W SMA and a reversal of DXY's current uptrend ¬11 Oct?
* If so, that...
* As expected, DXY has trended up in the short-term.
* However, it will be meeting heavy resistance by ¬11 Oct'21.
* BTCUSDT has an inverse relationship with DXY.
* Thus if DXY trends downwards, that might signal the end of the mid-cycle consolidation for BTCUSDT.
* My original idea on BTC.D (BTC.D short till end-Aug, then long in Sep; see link below) remains unchanged.
* BTC.D has remained beautifully within the original channel.
* This update is just to point out the uncanny similarities in BTC.D's behaviour between this and the 2017 bull run.
* If BTC.D behaves the way it did in 2017, then it will follow the current...
* In previous bull cycles, BTCUSDT has always consolidated between the 1.618X to 4.236X of the previous ATH.
* Sep has historically been a poor month for BTCUSDT.
* BTCUSDT has broken down from the ascending parallel channel it was in.
* BTCUSDT has formed a new descending parallel channel.
* BTCUSDT is dropping despite DXY dropping. The drop in BTCUSDT is due to...
* BTCUSDT has broken down below the ascending parallel channel it was in on the daily chart
* And appears to be forming a descending parallel channel on the 4-hourly
* Can it re-enter the original channel?
* I'll give it a 40% probability that it will, and 60% that it will not (either go sideways or down the new parallel channel).
* However, neither are good odds,...
* As expected, ENJUSDT retraced over the weekend.
* This sets ENJUSDT up for a cup and handle on the weekly timeframe, confluent with the larger inverse H&S that is forming.
* Confluent cup and handle and inverse H&S are forming amongst many smaller cap altcoins.
* Be aware of the larger picture, especially DXY.
* I was toying with this chart and teaching my 9yo daughter the relationship between chart patterns and market psychology yesterday. Unfortunately, I did not publish my idea prior to the pump. Well...
* This pump may be the result of Loopring releasing news relating to Layer-2 NFTs. More news to be released soon.
* Anyway, LRCUSDT has broken out of the ascending...
* DXY has been in a descending parallel channel on the weekly timeframe, and we are currently above the midpoint.
* Will DXY complete the double top pattern (labelled "1" in green)?
* Or is a double bottom (labelled "2" in red) currently forming which will push DXY to the upper end of the parallel channel?
* I tend to favour 1, but shall continue monitoring.
* BTC.D has been in a descending parallel channel since breakout in early-Aug
* Sep has historically been a lull month for BTC, and I expect BTC.D to increase in Sep.
* Alts to continue growing exponentially and relatively so against BTC in 2H-Sep.