Looks like H&S forming on the daily ( as per yellow arrows ) but needs to break current resistance and TL @ 0.72 level (reference graph in comments section). If it does break this resistance then the road is clear for 0.73 again.
Before anyone gets excited - wait for the dust to settle from NZ inflation data from today and wait for US open first. On first...
It is due for a retracement to 0.71653 ~ 0.720 levels but waiting for trend line retest and PA to see direction of this pair.
Keeping a close eye on momentum indicators and PA to determine if it will have the strength to break this TL. So if PA is not proportional to momentum and price stalls at support ~ 0.70375 - then we will have the beginning of a...
A few different outcomes for this with a wedge forming on 1D timeframe. Edging towards the very end for a break out - currently resting on structural support around 1.4573 area and close of bottom of trend line.
Could make a false break and head back towards the upper trend line of the wedge - if so 1.5 area will be key resistance and good place to short if PA...
At Key Support level:
Structural > Red
Trend line > Green
Fib . White
Wait for retest and whether PA closes beyond or gets rejected before picking your direction.
personally going to long but will short if there is clean break
Structural support and fib and DMA on the 4 hr - entering long now - NZ data expected to be epic strong and move down suggests one of two things:
1) Market not convinced housing boom driven growth is great parred with untrustworthy data from China and also pricing in overhyped GDP data for NZ.
2) Setting up for big upwards moves soon - Flip side to above. if...
Start looking for long entries - NZ data to be strong and the Fed not likely to rise rates Sept.
Resting on structural support and fibs
Risk is to the downside - use appropriate SL according your plan and rules.
Currently riding this up - half position off for profit and remainder to ride up to 1.77 with break even SL ( link ).
Planned entry around 1.78 mark with strong support / resistance and also shoulder line of potential head and shoulders.
2 entries planned and to be confirmed pending PA and events .
1) at should line 1.7775 ~ 1.78 with SL above PRZ
Potential long targeting just below 1.77~ area. Market entry with stop below .618 fib.
Don;t expect any bad news that will change recent surge in pound. RBA neutral albeit plain statement. GDP tomorrow see lets see.
Waiting to short this as per linked idea where potential inverted head and shoulder is forming
Upcoming NFP will be sensitive after Yellen's hawkish speech. Expecting a lot of volatility as markets need to interpret what figure will be considered strong enough to may be increase rates in Sept.
Expecting 200+ figure would bring Sept rate hike to ~60 %.
Below 150 maybe see retracements across the board on most USD pairs.
Personally feel that AUD will...
Very early days to map potential moves of NZD - this is my feel.
Likely to see a ranging trending grind up to 0.75 area ( white box ) until further development with news and data.
RBNZ expected to have one more rate cut by year end and Fed outlook for rising rates decreasing - see where the market will take us.
No matter what Wheeler says - I am bullish on the...
Graham Wheeler has been saying the Kiwi is over valued for as long as I can remember - as well as almost every other central bank in the world. There has been three things that has been plaguing Wheeler for some time; interest rate disparity, house prices and commodity status of the Kiwi. All of which to be fair, are largely beyond his control.
NZ's macro data...
The recent metals recovery has largely driven the strength in the AUD in recent weeks. Not expecting any bullish sentiment in the USD for some time yet after 8 years of meek growth and inflation. The FED is reaching its limit to guide the economy and I hope it does not ever reach what the BOJ is going through now.
Futures in metals and resources suggest more...
As per Bloomberg's survey of 25 economists - 20 believe that Glenn Stevens will lower the interest rate today due to low inflation. Text book fundamentals at play.
However, I believe the question should not be whether the RBA will cut rates, but rather will it actually help the Australian economy and lift inflation. There are strong signs that low inflation is...