koun_the_wolf

koun_the_wolf

Where do I start? Since the beginning of this bear market, I have observed every single leg down. And we reached a price level ($17k), where one could argue that this is the bottom. And for a good reason. The pattern for a lower low during summer got invalidated, lots of blood on the streets, so called ''tourists'' gone from the market, oversold metrics etc etc....

koun_the_wolf

So, as expected the head and shoulders pattern is playing out and I still don't understand why only a minority of us have mentioned it prior to the recent blood bath. Being bullish is nice, but never trade against higher time frame patterns. Odds are against you. So, let's see where we are at now. We are currently sitting at the 0.618 fib, which should act as...

koun_the_wolf

For starters, let's clarify one thing: Nobody knows with 100% what's coming next. I see lots of CT ''influencers'' still shouting how bullish they are, and give hopium without any second thoughts. They might be FINALLY right, but I see something else in the charts. A clear head and shoulders pattern that's been playing out for weeks now. The fact that it's so...

koun_the_wolf

Ok, time to really zoom out. The Money Flow Index (MFI) on the daily has been reset, same as with the Chaikin Money Flow. Last time we had such a reset, we continued with the second leg of this overextended bull run. I will remain out of leveraged positions, until we have a clear bottom pattern. Trading on LTF is really tricky atm. Potential mid term targets...

koun_the_wolf Updated 

Long story short: Trendline broken->Bearish. Falling wedge broken->bearish. Fib level broken->Bearish. Currently looking at 1.618 around $44k. Even though we broke this price, we did not close a candle below this level, so still ok-ish. Looking for a structural retest of this Fib level, either we bounce or die. Two things that spin around in my head: Bull...

koun_the_wolf

Two days ago: *everyone* 53k incoming, but it's ok. Didn't happen. Instead we saw a Thanksgiving price surge, which historically is followed by a bloodbath. Check it out yourself. 26.11.2020. History repeats itself. Falling wedge structure still intact, fib levels are clear. Two possible plays: 1) New Covid mutation is serious, and we see economies shutting...