kumarz

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About me exotic derivatives buttonmonkey at an IB with a gambling addiction :-) Also a Bitcoin enthusiast
Joined Canary Wharf, London UK
Markets Allocation
88 % cryptocurrency 12 % forex
Top Mentioned Symbols
BITFINEX:BTCUSD 70% | 12 BITSTAMP:BTCUSD 17% | 3 EURUSD 5% | 1 EURAUD 5% | 1
kumarz kumarz BTCUSD, 120, Short ,
BTCUSD: 07june2015_BTCexpectinonemorelegdownb4uncertainty
68 2 0
BTCUSD, 120 Short
07june2015_BTCexpectinonemorelegdownb4uncertainty

expecting a fifth wave down, but the current cycle has been less sharp than the fall from 310-210, so will be interesting to see what develops after that: doom to 150s might take ages to come if at all it surmises. Holding small qtrly shorts, but generally long til we hit 230ish(at which point I expect the 5th wave to start.

kumarz kumarz BTCUSD, 60,
BTCUSD: 05May2015_BTCshort-mediumtermUncertain2Up
54 3 1
BTCUSD, 60
05May2015_BTCshort-mediumtermUncertain2Up

I reckon the odds in favour of that consolidation I was expecting are diminishing, and given we've stayed above that long-term blue trendline for a fair bit of tme(and not just wicked/spiked above) suggests we're headed to meuhnn, but I ain't too convinced yet. Also note we've had a clear 5-wave impulse since the 5-wave 5th dive from 239 to 214 that rose further ...

kumarz kumarz BTCUSD, D, Short ,
BTCUSD: 23apr2015_BTCmedium2longtermcountsrevisedabit
69 2 1
BTCUSD, D Short
23apr2015_BTCmedium2longtermcountsrevisedabit

Rebuilding shorts as I think we're headed to doom around 200s, not much commentary to add from previous posts, but as u can see this count is invalidated if we push higher past 240s.

kumarz kumarz BTCUSD, D, Short ,
BTCUSD: 13apr2015_BTCmediumtermBlurbz:xpectinasmallcorrectiveriseonly
81 4 1
BTCUSD, D Short
13apr2015_BTCmediumtermBlurbz:xpectinasmallcorrectiveriseonly

ok so I think my longer term count needed updating, luckily it has moved in favour of my trades :) I reckon the fall from 300s is the beginning of wave5 down, of which we have only had wave I and II so far: I think this evening we will have a bit of further capitulation and margin calls to bottom wave III out(210-215 ?) and begin wave IV up (to 230s ?) ... then ...

kumarz kumarz BTCUSD, 60,
BTCUSD: 08apr2015_BTC:not v bullish med-term anymore:expectin 5thwavedwn
83 0 0
BTCUSD, 60
08apr2015_BTC:not v bullish med-term anymore:expectin 5thwavedwn

I feel we didn't manage to make a clear break of the downward trendline on the Daily chart, and have just had wave 3 of a downward move that will probly take us to 235 or lower. Anyway, the crash from 254 to 243 is deffoz a wave 3(and not C of a correction), so we need a bit of consolidation before wave 5. Closed most of my shorts(closing rest as we go) and am in ...

kumarz kumarz BTCUSD, 60, Long ,
BTCUSD: 31mar2015_shortTermLong, stil holding qtrly shorts
180 3 2
BTCUSD, 60 Long
31mar2015_shortTermLong, stil holding qtrly shorts

so whatever dafuq this is developing into (triangle? zigzag? chop? fks given=zero) I think after the 5 waves down we have to consolidate for a week atleast: have left my quarterly shorts open(reduced size tho) but been opening longs since 248(so currently those are losers): expecting a rise to 260 ideally, atleast 255s. I think that red line will hold for atleast ...

kumarz kumarz EURUSD, 60, Long ,
EURUSD: 23mar2015_EURspecLong
71 3 0
EURUSD, 60 Long
23mar2015_EURspecLong

short term long, think this retrace from ATL has a bit more steam to go ... long @ 1.09, SL 1.085, TP 1.1

kumarz kumarz EURAUD, 30, Long ,
EURAUD: 20mar2015:EURAUD_shortTermlong
16 1 0
EURAUD, 30 Long
20mar2015:EURAUD_shortTermlong

I think the overall trend is still down but based on a double bottom signal in GBPAUD by river_54: https://www.tradingview.com/v/yjJxch71/ the pair is not available for me to trade on, so am using EUR instead, expecting the same trendline below to hold as support for now, targeting 1.41s

kumarz kumarz BTCUSD, 240, Short ,
BTCUSD: 19mar2015_BTCshortTermBlurbz
68 6 0
BTCUSD, 240 Short
19mar2015_BTCshortTermBlurbz

so basically I think a ABC correction to 300s is over and we're back in the downtrend(was hoping the downtrend was over but hey ho). and in that picture I reckon we're in wave 4 of 5 ... trying to catch the top on that: not expecting this to top out til settlements fuckery is over tomoz, so accumulating shorts as we go. Not really expecting for this to rise much ...

kumarz kumarz BTCUSD, 15, Long ,
BTCUSD: 4mar2015: long BTC for now
86 6 0
BTCUSD, 15 Long
4mar2015: long BTC for now

ok so that decline from 290s(3mar2015) was a clear 5-wave impulse. So now even if the rise from 5mar2015(260s) to 285 was corrective, we should have another wave up. The trendline(green) hasn't been broken yet, so here's hoping ;-) Per my longer term view https://www.tradingview.com/v/Kj5jz3rv/, I am expecting a breakout/controlled rise as opposed to a resumption ...

kumarz kumarz BTCUSD, D, Long ,
BTCUSD: 2delete
64 0 0
BTCUSD, D Long
2delete

2delete

kumarz kumarz BTCUSD, D, Long ,
BTCUSD: 2delete
44 0 0
BTCUSD, D Long
2delete

2delete

kumarz kumarz BTCUSD, D, Long ,
BTCUSD: Bitcoin: longerterm blurbz now I have a PRO a/c ;-)
111 2 1
BTCUSD, D Long
Bitcoin: longerterm blurbz now I have a PRO a/c ;-)

I think the rise from 13jan2015(150s) is corrective, but also think the fall from nov2013(1160s) is corrective to the longer term trend in BTC. The daily(LHS chart) seems to suggest the rise from 13jan2015(150s) was a ABC correction. Looking at the 1/BTCUSD chart gave me a better perspective on this as I couldn't arrive at this conclusion by simply looking at the ...

kumarz kumarz BTCUSD, 30, Long ,
BTCUSD: 06dec2014_goingspecLong
42 0 0
BTCUSD, 30 Long
06dec2014_goingspecLong

a highly speculative long while we consolidate in like a triangle, that red line seems to have held well, I'm out when that breaks convincingly: good thing that line is rising:) Expecting a rise to near 400 or more as a final spurt ... then megacrash ... then mewnn

kumarz kumarz BTCUSD, 45, Short ,
BTCUSD: Bitcoin:looking for retracement top before final dive
57 10 0
BTCUSD, 45 Short
Bitcoin:looking for retracement top before final dive

so basically I think the current dive will resume(where to? dunno) before a major uptrend. Currently looking to accumulate more shorts, which I'm keen to do while it is retracing(I think) from the dive to 367. I've drawn a few fib retracements, one for the rise from 275(to look for support), I see major supports have been smashed, so this baby is going down for a ...

kumarz kumarz BTCUSD, 45, Short ,
BTCUSD: Bitcoin:looking for top b4 last leg down
222 1 4
BTCUSD, 45 Short
Bitcoin:looking for top b4 last leg down

The move down(pink) from 475 was so violent that it broke all supports: so I think the move back up(blue) from 370 is corrective and can never resume the move up from 275 without a test/break of 275 first. Also, because the decline(green B) from 410 retraced more than 50% of the rise(green A) from 275, the whole move up(green) from 275 looks like a corrective ...

kumarz kumarz BTCUSD, 15,
BTCUSD: descending triangle on 15min chart?
62 4 0
BTCUSD, 15
descending triangle on 15min chart?

looks like a descending triangle, and those tend to continue downwards in the end, unless it breaks ... staying on the sidelines for now ...

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