lavoriamo

lavoriamo

The US 3-month bond yield looks like it's rolling over. In recent history this has sometimes been a signal of an incoming recession.

lavoriamo Updated 

I was wondering if futures can predict market movement. Here's a monthly chart showing two values: * green: the difference between ES futures and SPX, divided by SPX to keep it proportional in a rising market * orange: SPX itself It shows: 1. Futures fluctuate over the 3-month cycle 2. SPX declines after peaks in the difference between ES futures and SPX - see...

lavoriamo

SPX is currently in a downtrend. On the SPX weekly chart, see the similarities between now and March 2022. Then there was 6% move up followed by a huge drop. My guess is that SPX will move up to resistance at 4400 then fall. Not trading advice. Do your own research.

lavoriamo

In May and August I made posts saying "Macro conditions don't foretell a market crash soon." Time has passed and it's all pretty much the same. BUT!! Current world events might change everything. And see my other posts re likely imminent drops in the market. This post is just about macro. Once again, some points here looking back to 2001. (2020 was an irregular...

lavoriamo

Last Friday QQQ broke the upward trend line for 2023 on the daily and weekly charts - see my earlier post. Lower highs and my favourite indicators are pointing south on both the daily and weekly. Note the downward trend on MACD and RSI since June. So it will probably fall further. There's support right now around 354-355 so perhaps a small bounce first? SPX,...

lavoriamo

On the weekly QQQ chart there's a Shark Cypher harmonic pattern - these are pretty accurate. Also today we closed at the trend line from January 2023. All that plus world events which don't seem to be improving sadly. It's time to be careful out there. Not trading advice. Do your own research.

lavoriamo Updated 

It looks like a bull market, but so did June - August last year.

lavoriamo Updated 

Back in May I made a post "Market conditions don't foretell a market crash soon." Here we are almost four months later and not much has changed. Again, some points here looking back to 2001. (2020 was an irregular event). Sorry for all the colors here, but everything is connected. 1. The Fed Rate (FEDFUNDS dark purple) falls before unemployment rises and...

lavoriamo

Some points here looking back to 2001. (2020 was an irregular event): 1. Unemployment Rate (UNRATE green) has to start rising before SPX (yellow) drops. Currently UNRATE is declining. 2. The Unemployment Rate (UNRATE green) seems to follow the Unemployed Persons Rate (USUP dark blue). USUP just fell so presumably we can expect UNRATE to fall too this month. 3....

lavoriamo

Looking at the QQQ chart, 313.26 is the 0.382 fib of the December 2021 high to the October 2021 low. Also 313.27 is 0.736 fib of the August 2021 high to the October 2021 low. So it will be tough for QQQ the break above 313, at least at the first attempt. If it does go higher, we could be in for another rally.

lavoriamo

This follows problems at SVB. There's speculation about bank liquidity and exposure to crypto. More to come?

lavoriamo

Not sure how this data is derived, but is shows that smart money (institutions) has declined in the last year. Dumb money (that's retail... ie us!) has increased, prompting the rallies. It now seems they're both declining

lavoriamo

DJI closed Friday at 0.5 fib of 2022 decline. Looks inevitable it will close lower this week - big bear signal.

lavoriamo Updated 

Looks like SPX due for change in direction. Indicators: * CM_Ult_MacD_MTF * KF with 4-hour timeframe on daily chart Just waiting for Neural Networks to agree. A lot depends on Core CPI next Tuesday

lavoriamo Updated 

Note the rise of US02MY relative to longer-term rates. (Thanks to Diego Colman whose chart on a DailyFX page "inspired" this view.)