lorschd

lorschd Updated 

The chart shows the marginal cost for BTC at 0.05 USD/kWh for the antminer S9, S15 and S19pro respectively. During 2018/2019 the S9 (or miner with similar spec's) served as 'fundamental bottom'. Will the S15 be the new 'fundamental bottom' or is the bottom at more efficient miners? Take care, no investment advice!

lorschd Updated 

Hi Everyone! Another update for the BTC marginal cost perspective. We are once again close to the marginal costs of BTC mining with an Antminer S15 (~10500 USD/BTC). The key question at this point is how long will the Antminer S15 (or miner with similar efficiency) serve as “fundamental bottom”. A quick-and-dirty analysis reveals that the Antminer S9 had...

lorschd Updated 

The marginal cost of the Antminer S15 will increase by ~15% with the next difficulty adjustment tomorrow. So, if the S15 serves another time as “fundamental bottom”, we may have hit or were very close to the bottom this morning. No financial Advice!

lorschd Updated 

The Antminer S15 (blue line) was a good guide during the March crash and during the halving. I have no reason to doubt that it also will guide us in the near term future. No financial advice! Stay save!

lorschd

Happy halving!

lorschd Updated 

If and only if the difficulty remains constant, the green, blue and red arrow indicate the price required to cover the marginal costs of BTC production with the Antminer S9, S15 and S17 respectively. Furthermore the marginal costs for the Antminer 19 Pro are also plotted. The S19 is is expected to be released in May 2020. Prices below those levels would imply...

lorschd Updated 

Looks like we hit the "fundamental bottom". Halving pushes this bottom upwards, but Difficulty may adjust. No guarantee in extraordinary times. No Trading advice!

lorschd Updated 

The chart shows the marginal costs of BTC mining (~ electricity expenses per BTC) at 0.05 USD/kWh with different mining hardware. There is strong evidence that the Antminer S9 has been the dominating mining device in 2017/2018. The bottom of BTC (Dec. 2018 to March 2019) was close to the marginal cost of mining with an Antminer S9 at 5ct/kWh. New miners were...

lorschd

BFX shorts are close to ATH and crossed BFX longs. In the past we have seen good bounces (or bottom building) in these situations (e.g., June or April). Furthermore BTC prices are now in the range of short-term marginal costs of mining. Marginal costs only include electricity expenses for mining and are generally considered as lower price limits (not only in the...

lorschd

The indicator developed by DanielCal showing the margin shorts and longs at Bitfinex. As can be seen, the history of data indicate that we need a “short overweight” or at least equilibrium for a proper bounce. The April bounce attracted more shorts by stumbling sideways. Let’s see.. Caution: the TV time series on shorts and longs at BFX is pretty limited.

lorschd

Chart showing BTC price vs marginal costs of BTC with an Antminer S9 at electricity prices of 10 and 5 ct/kWh respectively.