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markrivest

My prior post noted a decline in US stocks was imminent. Today 01/15/21 the SPX daily MACD had a bearish crossover a few trading days ago the daily Stochastic had a bearish crossover. If the decline continues it may only last until the end of January or early February , this is based on a possible analogy with the SPX January 2010 peak. That minor decline lasted...

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When the VIX diverges off a recent bottom or bottoms it can sometimes signal an impending SPX decline. This happened just before the September drop and its happening again in early January 2021. This signal will be invalid if the VIX declines below its 11/27/20 bottom. Mark

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The year 2020 will be know as the year the bears were crushed. In spite of the fastest bear market in history, the balance of 2020 was brutal for the bears. All of the pain, anguish and loss could have been avoided if they had paid attention to just two factors, a deeply depressed US stock market and aggressive FOMC liquidity. My 03/30/20 post summed it up in...

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It appears an Elliott Wave - Horizontal Triangle may have completed at the 10/30/20 bottom. If so the SPX is now in a post triangle thrust up. The main target for what could be a major peak is in the low 4000 area. This is calculated from the growth rate of the supposed Primary wave "1" - boxed added to the 03/23/20 SPX bottom. Based on seasonal factors the...

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In the last few days the SPX Elliott Wave pattern appears to be a series of one's and two's up which is the prelude to a strong move up. Each of the prior declines bottomed at or very close to Fibonacci support. 15 - minute Stochastic was in the oversold zone after the late 12/23/20 decline. Post Christmas trading for US stocks is usually bullish. Sometimes...

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The current Russell 2000 (RUT) rally from the 10/30/20 bottom is the largest and longest spike since the start of the secular bull market in March 2009. That earlier spike was the kickoff of the secular bull market. The current spike is probably a speculative blow off top. Sharp moves up in small cap stocks is typically a phenomenon of late stage bull markets. ...

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Gold is seasonally bearish into late December. The recent short term rally stopped below two very close Fibonacci coordinates. Two coordinates very close together usually provide powerful resistance/support. Daily Stochastic is near overbought. It's possible a short-term top could already be in place. If no, a rally into the Fibonacci resistance could be a...

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AAPL may have just completed an Elliott Wave - Horizontal Triangle. In this formation usually the widest part of the triangle can forecast the termination point of the next wave which in this case is wave "5". The widest part of the triangle is wave "a" added to the wave "e" bottom targets 148. Daily Stochastic today 11/27/20 had a bullish crossover which...

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There are four dimensions of market analysis; Price, Time, Sentiment, and Momentum. A review of posts on Trading View will reveal that most analysis is concerned only with the price dimension - pattern recognition or support/resistance. Some posters focus on momentum such Stochastic or RSI indicators. Only a few members of Trading View discuss the time...

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From 2018 until mid 2020 the Russell 2000 index of small cap stocks (RUT) underperformed the SPX. After the September 2020 peak, RUT was stronger and made a new 2020 rally high in October, while the SPX lagged. We're seeing the same phenomenon again as RUT is making a new November rally high while the SPX lags. Follow the leader, like in October this is probably...

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My 10/27/20 posted noted the SPX could make a bottom on 10/28/20. A bottom was made on 10/30/20. The SPX is now poised to - what I call "hit the dominos". There are three areas where there are probably stop buy orders. The triggering of the first one above the declining trendline is close enough to move the SPX to the next buy cluster above the 10/12/20 top....

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USDJPY may have completed its multi month decline at 104.00 in the area of a triple bottom. Daily Stochastic has a bullish crossover in oversold territory. The clear support level represents a good risk/reward ratio set up because a stop could be placed just below 104.00. Additionally the position could be reversed to short if 104.00 is broken. Minimum upside...

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My prior post noted market profile value support in the low SPX 3400 area. That zone was broken, opening the door for a move down to the next market profile value support at SPX 3358. This level is just above chart support and .618 retrace of the rally from 9/24/20. The Elliott Wave structure for the SPX has cleared up and it appears an Elliott Wave - Double...

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My prior post noted SPX 500 could find support at the .618 retrace of the last rally. The bottom on 10/19/20 was 2419.98, the 618 target was 3421.09 almost a direct hit! Its possible the SPX500 high on 10/19/20 was the termination point of an Elliott Wave - Inverse Horizontal Triangle. An important bottom could be in place, however a market profile volume value...

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Most of the time the S&P 500 index (SPX) provides the clearest Elliott Wave patterns for US stock. For the most recent activity (SPX500) has the clearest intraday patterns. SPX500 is similar to an S&P 500 continuous futures contract showing activity in the overnight session. The decline from the most recent top was a five-wave pattern followed by a three-wave...

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AAPL's recent September decline of 25% has had some analyst's speculating that it could be in the beginning of a developing larger bear move. Perhaps this could happen, however the gap up move on 10/12/20 could be the start of a rally to new highs. Note the prior gap up. Other FAANG stocks also had big up moves on 10/12/20. It takes a lot of money to trigger...

markrivest Updated 

Please see my 8/30/20 post "Peace is at Hand". That announcement came twelve days before the 1972 US Presidential Election. My guess is that 10/22/20 twelve days before the 2020 Presidential election could be the optimal time to make an announcement about a Coronavirus vaccine. My belief that there could be an announcement comes from President Trump's many...

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Our thoughts and prayers go out to US President Donald Trump and First Lady Melania Trump for a rapid recovery of the Coronavirus. This is an update to my 9/26/20 Pfizer post. Since then the daily MACD has had a bullish crossover and the Histogram has gone above the zero line. Ever since President Trump announce "Operation Warp Speed" to develop a Coronavirus...