For only the second time in 2019 I'm issuing a Yellow Alert for US stocks. The last Yellow alert was in early May near the start of the May to June decline. Yellow alert means caution. Hold off on new long positions. This is not a recommendation to sell or short. The long term Elliott wave count for the SPX bull market since 2009 does not appear complete -...
My 8/26/19 post noted the SPX could reach a corrective bottom around the 2800 area. This is still possible and possibly even more downside action. On 9/5/19 the SPX had an obvious breakout above a clear resistance area, the start of a move to new all-time highs? Perhaps, but remember there are four market dimensions; Price, Sentiment, Time, and Momentum. The...
This is a follow up to my 8/8/19 GLD post. There was expected resistance in the zone around 50% retrace of the last Gold bear market. Gold and the ETF - GLD marginally exceeded the target with significant bearish divergences. Since the peak, daily MACD and Stochastics have had line bear crosses. Daily RSI has a bearish divergence. If the Elliott wave count...
This post is a follow up to my prior SPX post regarding a possible bottom at 2800. The Elliott wave structure from the SPX bottom made on 8/23/19 appears corrective, implying a resumption of the sharp 8/23/19 decline. The SPX high on 8/26/19 was just below two short term Fib resistance points. If the decline does resume on 8/27/19 the SPX could reach the next...
8/27/19 could be turn around Tuesday for the SPX, on that day the decline that began on 7/26/19 will equal in time the May to June drop. Price equality is near SPX 2800. The declines Elliott pattern appears to be a Combination wave with the first wave "w" - boxed as an Expanding Flat. The third wave subsequent to "x" wave, appears to be a nearly complete...
In a recent SPX post I noted it could be forming an Elliott wave Ending Diagonal Triangle. This almost always has a converging wedge shape, the SPX still has a wedge - barely. However the DJI is in a near perfect parallel trend channel, It is very doubtful the DJI is in a EDT and therefore doubtful the SPX is in an EDT. The DJIA now has a very bullish series of...
Gold and the Gold ETF - GLD both have weekly RSI readings that are the most over bought since the all - time high. GLD is close to a 50% retrace of the bear market from the all -time high at 143.04 The wave (B) of a probable "A-B-C" rally appears to be an Elliott wave - Horizontal Triangle. After conclusion of an H Triangle there's usually a post triangle...
SPX could be forming an Elliott wave - Ending Diagonal Triangle from the December 2018 bottom. Fib support 2940 to 2944. Wave (4) could be complete on 8/1/19 if not, high probability today 8/2/19. Mark
In early 2018 I forecasted that the SPX had major Fibonacci resistance at 3047.30. Fibonacci support/resistance levels are not equal in importance. The further away in time from the original coordinates the more powerful the supposed support/resistance. The 3047.30 target is derived from coordinates over ten years ago, potentially very powerful. With any...
Recently I posted that the Dow Transports (DJT) could be in a post Elliott wave Horizontal Triangle thrust up. On 7/19/19 the SPX went down .62% the DJT went UP .63%. If this is the early part of a larger decline chances are that the DJT would be down at least as much as the SPX. What the DJT did on 7/19/19 ties in with the theory that a DJT is in a thrust up...
The SPX from the bottom made at 2728 appears to have completed a series of Elliott wave One's and Two's up. The second wave "i - boxed", counts best as a Leading Diagonal Triangle. Note the Oversold conditions on the hourly RSI, MACD, and Stochastics. If the wave count is correct the SPX is in the early phase of a third of a third up, this is usually the...
The Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJT) looks like it has completed a multi- month Elliott Wave Horizontal Triangle, if so it could now be in the early phase of a post triangle thrust up. A thrust is usually measured by the widest length of the triangle which in this case is wave (A) = 2986.80 points. This is added to the termination point of the triangle -...
The S&P 500 E-Mini futures have a very clear Elliott wave pattern of five waves up followed by an Expanding Flat correction which terminated just below a .618 retrace of the prior rally. If the important support level holds there is a very high probability of US stocks rallying on 7/10/19. On 7/9/19 AMZN and FB hit their upside buy targets- please see my prior...
There are four market dimensions; Price, Time, Momentum and Sentiment. Within each dimension there are many sub indicators. On 7/3/19 a powerful momentum signal was registered for US stocks - all three main US stock indices; SPX , DJI, and Nasdaq Composite recorded all-time highs. What's very interesting about the DJI high is that it was made without strong...
A main point of the Market Profile method is that markets will move away from or to value. A good example of this concept happened with the SPX in early June 2019 when the SPX blasted off of a significant value area in the 2693 to 2725 area. Please see my SPX posts in May 2019 illustrating the value area. The same phenomena has happened in June with two value...
Multiple indicators show a probable bottom for US interest rates. Mark
Since early 2018 my SPX Forecast for a major resistance zone has been SPX 3047. Evidence is mounting that 3047 could be exceeded. The latest example of bullish evidence came this week when the SPX made a new all-time highs. The NYSE new 52 week highs reached the highest level since the last significant bottom made in late 2018. Several days before this the NYSE...
Boeing BA is the largest single DJI component. Today's BA move above a short term top and declining trend line signals that BA and DJI could soon be headed to ne all-time highs. Mark