Following on from my last chart, we are approaching the previously identified target zone for this correction to terminate. The box is defined between prices 43.35 - 43.75.
I believe the market will have one last push into this target zone before a sharp reversal develops and the bears take us down towards the $38 mark.
I will look to enter short in the target...
At the risk of sounding like a broken record player, another bounce is on the cards. I say bounce because it's due to be "corrective", which means there will still be a new low to follow.
Currently we can see that the divergence on the MACD is even greater than when we were looking for the red wave iv, a MACD "buy" signal could provide a great entry for the short...
Following the last chart I posted, we have seen what now appears to be a completed pattern in the decline, slightly exceeding the target level I gave for where I expected the intermediary lows to form.
Regardless, it now appears to me that the market is getting ready for a 300 pip (or so) corrective rally. This will be a counter-trend rally which may provide us...
Just a quick update following on from my last "big picture" chart posted about 2 weeks back. Oil appears to be following the script. Short term I can see an intermediary low forming around 41.07 with a potential for a 300 pip rally towards 43 before the sell off continues towards 38.
Following on from my last chart, it appears that corrective wedge/triangle has now completed and we are seeing an impulsive selloff.
My initial target was towards $42 a barrel, however given how strong the bears have been in the development of the "waves" we saw in the triangle, I suspect we could now go as low as $38
It currently appears that the market is forming a triangle sideways correction.
The key is that waves (d) and (e) of this triangle patterns do not make any new lower lows or higher highs as set by the preceding waves (b) and (c).
I will be looking to trade this when we see a bounce towards wave (e), with stops places above the wave (c) peak.
At this stage it...
The recent rallies in oil have made me reluctant to enter the market in either direction... largely due to the fact that they appear to be happening on falling momentum.
Note that with every higher intermediary high, the momentum (as measured by the MACD indicator) isn't able to make new highs. This has lead me to review another possible scenario for the big...
Building on a previous post I illustrated 2 possible scenarios for the oil markets. (linked)
Having initially thought we were in the 2nd, it appears I was wrong as this current rally now has an impulsive feel to it.
As you can see there appears to be a leading diagonal patter in play. It will be key to see the market react off the upper bound of this diagonal...
Following on from my last post on this market, I suspect that this is a false breakout which will catch a few bulls out. In short I believe we will see a reversal down to around $34.00 before the REAL rally starts. Time will tell but this is a rough illustration of my expectations currently.
This chart is linked to a smaller time frame analysis I have just posted a few minutes ago. In that analysis I am working under the assumption that we are in Scenario 1 (as illustrated here).
My conclusions are that a buy should be take and stops quickly brought to break even once in good profit. Why?
Case 1 - Don't enter long and we are in scenario 1... miss a...
After the declines in oil there is a completed pattern of correction in play... which suggests a buy would be the way to go. However I'm not 100% confident that the bull rally is ready to continue just yet.
Having said this, it would still be wise to look to enter long in case the market is about to gain some legs. So I have illustrated how this entry would look...
Oil is firmly in it's corrective phase following the rally we've seen since 11th Feb. This sell set up is a short term trade with a view to reverse the position for a longer term bull run higher.
To understand the context of this analysis (60 minute chart) please have a look at my previous Oil charts (daily charts) which have been linked below.
Buy it up for the correction as illustrated on the chart.
Once that's done... sell it with stops above 42.00.
There is no profit target for the sell trade, but if this set up plays out I will update with future analysis.
Short term bearish (1-2 weeks)
Long term bullish (6 months+)
Please read all the commentary on the chart.
Also please refer to my previous posts and "big picture" view of daily charts to understand the context of this aggressive sell possibility.
Short term - Bearish (1-2 weeks)
Medium term - Bullish (6 months+)
Alternative aggressive buy -
Buy Oil with a stop below 41.11 and a target of at least 41.85.