The JPY Index turned bullish overnight and this morning based on Heikin-Ashi 14-hour candles going from red to green. I like using 14-hour candles because one can detect bias shifts two times each day, once at 7:00am EDT, and once at 5:00pm EDT.
The US Dollar turned bearish earlier today, with the price falling below 50% of yesterday's trading range. However, as the New York market close approached, the price pushed back into the green. So if the daily Heikin-Ashi candle closes up at 5:00pm ET, I will continue to hold my long USD positions.
The Monthly and Weekly trends for AUDUSD are still clearly bearish. All Han Ne lines and Chiko Span are aligned in source order priority. Kumo, Senko Span B, Senko Span A, Kijun, and Tenkan Sen angles all point down. As long as the Daily or 4hr chart shows the same thing, one is safe to look down to the midterm time frames, the 1hr or 30m charts, to confirm...
2/18/20 - 9:32am ET (UTC-5)
Still Bearish - Look to sell unless we see Sanyaku Kouten prove momentum reversal to upside on the 1hr chart.
Current Market Condition: Daily and 1hr Downtrend. Buyers still not able to push higher highs. Sold breakdown at 1.08267. Moved stop to breakeven this morning. Holding trade short with open profit for a 5:1 Risk/Reward...
EUR/CHF Trade Watch Analysis
02/17/2020 - 3:51 PM ET (UTC-5)
Daily Chart Shows Downtrend
Invalid Sanyaku Kouten
Tenkan-Kijun crossover, step 1, and Chiko Span crossover of price, step 2, happened on the same candle. This means the reversal signal by itself is weak, and so not a valid trade signal on its own. Would need to see a pullback of price and then a...
EUR/JPY Trade Watch Update
02/17/2020 - 3:21 PM ET (UTC-5)
Reversal Scenario - If market buyers are going to overtake sellers, need to see a confirmed Sanyaku Kouten reversal. If so, will place a buy on price close above the Kumo.
Trend Continuation Scenario - Based on the Daily Chart, EUR/JPY is still in a solid downtrend. Waiting to see if price retraces...
2/17/20 - 2:44 pm ET (UTC-5)
Still Bearish - Looking to Sell Unless We See Sanyaku Kouten prove momentum reversal to upside on the 1hr chart.
Current Market Condition: Ranging, but buyers have not been able to push higher high. Waiting for price to touch and resist the downtrend top line or price to break the recent low to sell. Will make sure to confirm sell...
2/17/20 - 9:29am
Still Bearish - Looking to Sell
Ranging, but buyers have not been able to push higher high. Waiting for price to touch and resist the downtrend top line. Make sure to confirm sell entry with Tenkan Sen pointing down.
Clear Elliot Wave 5 + 200% Fib Extension + 3000 price level converge exactly on New Year's Day. Could signal the start of a long-term bear market that may last until the price hits 1850. 1850 is the 50% fib when measured from the low on 3/2/2009 to the 3000 level on 1/1/19.