merkd1904

merkd1904

Almost. Today we may have seen the bottom start to fall out in key support levels of the names and the index that got us to the highs in general. Meaning we could be in store for the C leg after all. But this comes with a caveat. The the past 2-3 weeks have been uncharacteristic for the market basically over the course of the past year or two. We've seen a...

merkd1904

So this will be a one off post from my daily posts i do.. elsewhere. We all know that one belligerent, bombtastic, annoying person right? Either the drunk, the partisan, or just plain abrasive? That's the market right now. Today we saw SPX and SPY gain starting from futures open last night, to today ending with a gain of 1.54% or over 50 points. On no news, no...

merkd1904

You don't have to be bearish to be frustrated with this market. In this low volume, seemingly automated market it's incredibly hard to do any decent trading, specifically on the indexes unless you literally just long on monday and close on Friday. Which is 100% counter intuitive to actively trading in general. It shouldn't be easy. And it sure as hell shouldn't...

merkd1904

Since this marks "the fastest bear to bull market in history" i'm going to be posting my full commentary. Full Retace. SPX and SPY new All Time Highs. New bull market. Every major news service with the "hits record" push notification and headline. All the fun stuff. SPX bulls out there popping champagne. But we still have historically low volume, and mixed...

merkd1904

Econ data is getting better with jobless claims printing less than a million in the first time in 21 weeks (that's insane when you actually think about it). Stimulus talks are non existent. We're less than 1% away from ATH's on SPY/SPX. And we're starting to show mixed signals in the indexes. Some bearish, some bullish. But what is becoming obvious is we're...

merkd1904

Invalid. That's what the market just said to the bears and their pesky reversal candles. And on most of the indexes that's true. Last night we had Asia get the bull party started once they all the sudden saw US indexes on sale and bid us up, and then the Europeans jumped on that train as well. And sure enough. We had a full retrace and then some in SPY, DJI,...

merkd1904

If you were wondering how to say "Reversal" in Swahili now you know. But that's not exactly what the market did today, at least in the major stock indexes. But it's definitely pending verification. It's more correctly a pivot. And today we saw one in the entire broader market. What a day huh? Metals traders woke up to the Claymore Roomba as they went go take...

merkd1904

That's what the market's saying. Literally with the cup of coffee in their hand and a smile on their face. And shit, if the market says everything is fine who are we to tell it it's wrong? Look at how close we are to the gap on SPX weekly, and for that matter the top here on SPX. They're so close they can taste it. And if you were to just look at daily and...

merkd1904

Why wouldn't you? Fed's got your back. The growth stocks that got us here in the first place are actually relatively justified in their valuations. What a week right? As someone who does this more than a hobby this was one of the most intense weeks i've had in a while trading the markets. We had a GDP print, the largest tech CEO's all on capitol hill getting...

merkd1904

Where the Mayor is Jpow, the population is the entire broader market, and the home team The Washington Whipsaw's 5 best players are the 5 guys in a room. It's like one of those horror movies where everyone is in on it and you get a "really bad feeling about this." Because you catch a whipsaw to the dome in the first 10 mins. I think of weeks like these as...

merkd1904

Otherwise known as an h pattern. And as it hasn't fully played out we don't know if it'll play out at all but usually these are continuation patterns when price falls into support of some form, bounces, and then falls back into the lows either knifing through, or stopping for a double bottom. Just like the lower case h, or "even a dead cat bounces if it falls...

merkd1904

Because the whipsaws are coming. The trick is not taking one, or multiple to the face. The amount of macro, earnings, and news we have this weekend is pretty extraordinary. Starting tomorrow we have: Consumer Confidence numbers Wednesday we have: FOMC meeting and press conference where JPOW will again try and not step on his dick Tech CEO's visit to Capitol...

merkd1904

You'd think we'd see more action with a gap down like that and fireworks poppin off in the tech space right? Nope. But, when you take a 30k foot look at the market there's some signals that are starting to show that may have matched the relative change in attitude or sentiment today. The most telling to me was the lack of the face ripping bullish bounce...

merkd1904

But is it a trend change? Not quite. Today we saw some of the most meaningful selling, and volume, we've seen in weeks with tech leading the way. We had a pretty brutal news day starting with the miss on jobless claims which surprised me honestly with how bad these economists have been getting it wrong. But the name of the game is still tech. And now we're...

merkd1904

Please hold. That's what the market was telling us today. Essentially that everyone's sitting on their hands and holding their breath as the top heavy portion and almost half of NDX report earnings today into next week. So what's happening on this chart? Whole lotta nothin. That's what. Like watching paint dry. We did print this descending triangle that...

merkd1904

And who knows how long this can go for. They did it again. The cup game. It's like throwing a darts at a dart board to see which market sector they're going to go after on any given day. So it looks like they did weaponize QQQ/AMZN yesterday to get us over the line. And they held it. Even last night in the futures market /RTY was up a larger percentage over...

merkd1904

Technically? No. Should you? No. Do you have to? Yes. Alright - we finally did it! Hooray! Right? Right guys? I'm not so sure. So instead of us gapping over this god forsaken resistance with a threepeat we actually managed to trade up OUT of our resistance that has kept us canned into the sub $320ish level. And surprisingly we did it during the cash session....

merkd1904

And it looks like the bulls need to find the key, bribe the doorman, or find another way through. We just spent an essentially an entire week consolidating and trying to get past what has turned out to be a brick wall of resistance. And not because of selling per se, but because of lack of conviction in my opinion. Not because of selling because we haven't been...