merkd1904

merkd1904

Too far too fast. I wasn't expecting nearly the amount of aggression we saw from the sellers Sunday night into Monday, but i am also taking that as more to come. And i am calling the past few days a technical reversal. Personally with the retest of at least one of my trend lines yesterday i thought we were going to get a continuance into the $320 area...

merkd1904

And that's a BIG maybe. I'm not sold on it. But as i've said in my past few posts we have poor market structure and gaps all the way down to the $293 area. This market has been resilient as **** and apparently it takes the possibility of a pandemic/end of the world to get any real selling. And there was real selling, particularly on Friday. Especially if the...

merkd1904

So this morning we saw higher than (for the past couple weeks) normal sell pressure on the bigger names. Meaning there were actual sellers out there this morning on names like AAPl, AMZN, and the broader market in general. It looked to be a switch out of risky assets to more defensives like healthcare and for some reason retail. Fast forward a couple...

merkd1904

What a night last night huh? The dow went like 600/700 points round trip in less than 24 hours. But honestly this volatility points to it being a little toppy and the charts seem to be pointing that way too. BUT, with the amount of liquidity plowing into the markets i'm not betting on big money, or any money for that matter giving anyone their dream entry....

merkd1904

Before another move higher. I think this chop is big money and whomever else re-positioning a lot of money for the beginning of the year. After yesterday's impressive kick save of the markets and without the breach of the $320 level on Spy i think we're consolidating before a move somewhere, and i'm leaning towards the northern direction. This sideways chop...

merkd1904

ES opened .5% down 20 mins ago. I completely understand that we have another half a day until markets open but i wanted to point out that with ES's open it is essentially finishing out the H&S pattern. If it breaks below the bottom trend line that would be an objective short signal. If SPY gaps down below $320 at open that's a personal foul on the bulls....

merkd1904

My target would be around $312. You have a confluence of factors including it being prior resistance and now support, a prior breakout area, general area of price of the 50 period MA, and the bottom of the Bollinger Band. But understand everyone else can see this as well, so expect the bounce to start happening before then.

merkd1904

Technically IWM is at a critical juncture. It pivoted, flagged for a few days and tried to continue. It did show relative strength yesterday but on the daily it did not close back above the trendline from the ascending wedge it broke out of a week or two ago. On the daily for RTY it bounced off a separate top of trend line and also closed inside the ascending...

merkd1904

I'm not expecting this to play out but it'd be a confirmation of a topping pattern if it does. The market has shown resilience to say the least but this is also without any type of retaliation from the Iranians yet. I'm completely delta neutral as of right now.

merkd1904 Updated 

How bout those algos this morning huh? Aggressive. Obviously this is going to resolve one of two ways. Bear case - We retested the long term trend line today barring any face rip move higher. With the $320 target hit (albeit for literally 1 minute) and floating around this price level we should head down to retest the gap if we do head lower. If for some...

merkd1904

If we do end up knifing through the past week or two of trading (which is more than possible) expect a test of the .236 fib around the $380 level with what i think will be major support around $360-$350.

merkd1904

So after the last few trading sessions melting upwards in thin volume it doesn't take much to reverse and plow through that thin volume. But, today's selling was light, and also thin volume. If you were just going off the charts it does show that we had a daily reversal and then pivot confirmation from Friday. Today's daily ended just below the long term...

merkd1904

Break was on higher than average daily volume. If retest is successful and we don't fall back into the channel resistance should turn into support. Monday will tell. Flat for the weekend. Next target $169.

merkd1904 Updated 

In my last post i was stating i was expecting to see a break of the trendline starting from the lows of 2009 and 2016 that we broke in Q4 of last year. Today we had a break of that trendline with what seems like conviction. Looking for a confirmation and then a retest at some point. I don't want to count my chickens too early here but it looks like the start of...

merkd1904

Smells like parabola to me. Need to get a daily confirmation tomorrow.

merkd1904

Self descriptive and printing on ES, RTY/IWM, NQ/QQQ, and YM/DIA also. We're also hitting the trend line from the lows of '09 - Fed '16 that we broke in Q4 of last year and haven't been able to recapture. I'm cautiously 60-40 long and wouldn't be surprised and am expecting a break of the trend line/recapture and for it to become basically parabolic before some...

merkd1904

Nice little bear flag or pennant printing on the hourly up to the daily. Volume is DED dead, people are fading gap ups in the morning, and the news flow is slowly starting to roll over, or algos are running out of cash. But, crazier shit has happened. Technically i would expect this to break down in the southern direction to the major multi year "megaphone" top...

merkd1904

The indicator on the bottom is called the cash in/cash out indicator and it's averaged over 100 periods. It indicates net selling since the first Jpow rate cut at the end of July. There has been net selling to the tune of a running sum of -124,924,564,001.and some change the past 100 trading days on SPY. But, we're now up another 8% from the lows of 10/08.. That's...