Saw this opportunity, figured I'd share it in case it helps anyone. Don't fool yourself into using indicators you don't really need. If you happen to understand the indicator you're using completely, worked out, and back tested a certain system that works for you, - great. Otherwise, refrain from cluttering your charts if you don't need it.
It's all in the...
The Aussie is declining from a point of resistance that is too good to be true: 200ma collision, major resistance at around 0.97 and 50% Fib. retracement.
Getting a boost from the rising USD today, it seems like a possibility that the bearish Australian Dollar trend may continue onwards. I'm going to keep an arbitrary and obvious target of 0.900 on here
The idea is based on a few premises:
1. There's a bearish hammer/pin (shown in pink box),
2. Potential Head and Shoulders pattern completion,
3. Target could be set around $14000 as it is round figure + 50% Fibonacci retracement is around there.
You may also have $14500 as a target area as the 61.8% retracement also matches up.
In addition, despite the Fed's...
If the recent past serves as any indication, then we could see a move up today, given that the Feds unveil their tapering plans and begin the "deceleration" process. I expanded on this idea further in a detailed post which went up earlier today, enjoy: www.traderesque.com
With the elusive "fear index", the VIX had quite a week last period. Thanks to uncertainties revolving around Syria, with releases from Central Banks and upcoming US unemployment data, expect the USD to move.
I wrote up a detailed perspective for your viewing pleasure, just copy/paste into browser:
I welcome any comments/opinions.
Both long and short scenarios presented. But speaking with some fundamental information, I'd prefer to see this pair go higher with Abe back in power and looking to further increase the monetary base. Only way this can break below is if there is overbearing USD bearishness + the additional risk of lower summer volumes/volatility (i.e. it is normally tougher to...
Based on daily/weekly charts, I'm looking for a resumption of the uptrend as soon as we breakout of this range (as can be seen by inside bars on the weekly chart).
First target is 1.46 (based on 2:1), rest can be trailed (optional).
I'm looking to fade this rally based on the above information. I'm going to let this trade run its course, and trail 50% of my position to the moving averages, if primary target is hit. The next support is highlighted in the smaller area between 1.285 and 1.29. This is where I will watch for any reversals.
Of course, if it doesn't work out. I get stopped out and...
Despite this pair currently trading in a range (as shown by weekly inside bars), there is overall bullish momentum - and I'm looking to take advantage of it. Of course, it would be safer to wait for a breakout+retracement too, but I'm willing to take a small risk to play this leg up to the higher end of the range.
Thought I'd point out what I'm seeing as demand and supply areas on the EURUSD. A simple observation of higher highs and lower lows on the 4 hour chart can give us some insight into what bias you should hold.
If you're a short term trader, you can either fade the demand zone into the 200ma (if price action shows more bearishness), or keep buying at the...
Last week I posted a chart on this pair (I'll link it in the comments below) about a trade I took on this pair. Unfortunately, it was prematurely stopped out as the pair did not give me solid sign of follow through, and the USD Index showed sudden strength.
Now that the USD is off to a weaker start this week, I can say with more confidence that we have a higher...
This trade could last a few days, if not all this week. Price action indicates a retracement. It's either a short term retracing bullish trade, or a bullish wave that will go back to resistance at the upper range. Hope my annotations are explanatory enough.
Here's an example of a long EURUSD trade that I've been in since yesterday. I realize the bias showing a currently profitable trade, but nobody likes to see a system that does not show results that they talk about. Note, I do have losing trades like anyone, but the average R:R and swift-loss-cutting money management helps me keep things sane. I am a part-time...
Since we have yet to break out of our very big range (see Monthly chart and draw lines of resistance/support), I figured it would be a good idea to take a short position into recent strong bullish momentum.
Sure, it sounds counter-intuitive, but then again, take a small position since it is counter-intuitive and against the smaller uptrend. R:R as displayed, is...
We know the Aussie has been building a very wide pennant on the weekly chart, looking like a bullish chart. On a closer look, it seems that we may break to the upside, especially as the USD may continue lower. If we see a breakout, our first target can be previous resistance at 1.06.
However, if we do not breakout yet, we can see price reacting to current...
Would like to see the channel complete, (as seen better on weekly chart). Ideally, my long target would be for 200ma or 0.99 (or 0.97 to be more conservative). Failure to go higher this week will result in me looking for bearish price action.
Anything above 0.95 and I shall be looking for longs.
Playing USD weakness, I am going short on this. The red line indicates my SL; green line indicates TP. If you are in this trade or are interested in this, I would also look to the 200ma as a target on daily frame.
Trade at your own risk if you take this.