michaelarias

PRO
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About me -I believe you need to see the big picture before you analyse smaller time frames. -I don't believe in luck. -You only get out what you put in!
Joined Australia
Markets Allocation
48 % forex 2 % cryptocurrency 2 % commodities 48 % other
Top Mentioned Symbols
AUDUSD 13% | 8 SPX 12% | 7 USOIL 8% | 5 GBPUSD 6% | 4
michaelarias michaelarias PRO AUS200, 60, Short ,
AUS200: ASX Sell
20 0 2
AUS200, 60 Short
ASX Sell

ASX Sell

michaelarias michaelarias PRO USDOLLAR, 240, Long ,
USDOLLAR: USDOLLAR - Long - Wave count revision.
69 0 6
USDOLLAR, 240 Long
USDOLLAR - Long - Wave count revision.

After what looked to be a completed 5 wave down on my previous analysis I counted wave c as wave 1 - Rookie mistake. It looks like overthrow of an extended wave 5 of an ending diagonal Wave C of a zig zag either complete or almost complete, looking for a sharp move up to around the start of wave C initially to confirm this. On the AUDUSD pair you can see the ...

michaelarias michaelarias PRO USDCHF, 240, Long ,
USDCHF: USDCHF - Long Idea - Waves lining up for a 3rd wave
42 0 5
USDCHF, 240 Long
USDCHF - Long Idea - Waves lining up for a 3rd wave

After a series of 1-2's on the daily time frame this pair looks like its ready to move higher. If support holds this should theoretically kick off a wave 3.

michaelarias michaelarias PRO AUDUSD, 240, Short ,
AUDUSD: AUDUSD - Short - Preferred Elliott Wave Count
144 1 8
AUDUSD, 240 Short
AUDUSD - Short - Preferred Elliott Wave Count

This is my preferred Elliott Wave interpretation of AUDUSD. I think we are close to finishing this correction. Stop above .78500 See related ideas.

michaelarias michaelarias PRO USDOLLAR, 15, Long ,
USDOLLAR: USDOLLAR BULLS - Take Charge: if you believe
65 0 5
USDOLLAR, 15 Long
USDOLLAR BULLS - Take Charge: if you believe

What appears to be the end of a zig zag correction followed by a 5 wave advance (Wave 1) followed by a 3 wave correction (Wave 2) is enough evidence for a long position with low risk.

michaelarias michaelarias PRO SPX500, 60, Short ,
SPX500: SPX500 - Time to short?
65 0 4
SPX500, 60 Short
SPX500 - Time to short?

Wave 2 appears to have produced a flat correction which is not usual for Wave 2 but acceptable. If your bearish then placing a stop above 2447.1 is advised. I do expect a zig zig correction to ensue from here if it is a Wave 2. See my related idea for potential targets.

michaelarias michaelarias PRO GBPUSD, D, Short ,
GBPUSD: Short - GBPUSD - Long term triangle complete...Whats next?
79 0 10
GBPUSD, D Short
Short - GBPUSD - Long term triangle complete...Whats next?

This is open for interpretation but I have my sneaking suspicions that we haven't seen the big drop yet. I seriously think that if you look back through the many charts available on the pound back when it was at around $4.60 USD for 1 pound you might see that the wave 4 of the supposed 5 wave decline was a triangle and its probably going to spew out a nice long ...

michaelarias michaelarias PRO AUDUSD, D, Short ,
AUDUSD: SHORT - AUDUSD - Flat\Triangle correction complete.
60 1 10
AUDUSD, D Short
SHORT - AUDUSD - Flat\Triangle correction complete.

This correction is done. WXY combination flat/triangle pattern is complete so expect the down trend to resume. Mike.

michaelarias michaelarias PRO SPX500, D,
SPX500: SPX500 - Wave 2 Correction should start here.
102 0 10
SPX500, D
SPX500 - Wave 2 Correction should start here.

I don't pay attention to news or world events this is purely my interpretation of Elliott Wave. They say its subjective, I say if you are not seeing the correct wave structure then you are wrong no matter what. I could be wrong BUT I don't question myself anymore. The move up from the US Elections appears to be the start of the last major bull market that will ...

michaelarias michaelarias PRO USOIL, W,
USOIL: USOIL
118 0 4
USOIL, W
USOIL

This is not a flat. If you look at the structure of Oil since 1860 you will see what I mean. One thing leads to another and it can fool you quite easily. The further back you can get the data the better off you will be with Elliott Wave.

michaelarias michaelarias PRO ESP35, W, Short ,
ESP35: ESP35 - Short - Long Term Trade - Killer Wave C
58 0 7
ESP35, W Short
ESP35 - Short - Long Term Trade - Killer Wave C

At present it is not looking good for this index. I predict it will fall tremendously to the 4000-3000 area. This dark cloud cover has been confirmed. Stop: 11239

michaelarias michaelarias PRO AAL, W, Short ,
AAL: American Hairline Cracks Showing - Crashing Landing Ahead
25 0 5
AAL, W Short
American Hairline Cracks Showing - Crashing Landing Ahead

This is a classic example of what danger lies ahead for all markets. It has already begun.

michaelarias michaelarias PRO DXY, W, Short ,
DXY: US Dollar Short - A case for shorting.
46 0 8
DXY, W Short
US Dollar Short - A case for shorting.

No matter how I look at it I can see the need for a US Dollar pullback from current levels. Yes I am bullish USD long term but this needs to happen first.

michaelarias michaelarias PRO SPX500, D, Short ,
SPX500: SPX500 - Short - Minor Wave 1 is done.
170 4 6
SPX500, D Short
SPX500 - Short - Minor Wave 1 is done.

Looking for a sharp correction to unfold in this over extended market.

michaelarias michaelarias PRO ITI1!, D, Long ,
ITI1!: IRON ORE Price Bounce - Long Idea - Support Rejection? Let's See
45 0 5
ITI1!, D Long
IRON ORE Price Bounce - Long Idea - Support Rejection? Let's See

I believe Iron Ore bottomed late 2015. Since then we have had impulsive move up followed by a correction. If prices reject support in a change of polarity then prices should continue higher.

michaelarias michaelarias PRO USDCAD, 60, Short ,
USDCAD: USDCAD - Short - Correction
105 3 4
USDCAD, 60 Short
USDCAD - Short - Correction

5 waves up complete. Looking for a 3 wave set back.

michaelarias michaelarias PRO AUDUSD, D,
AUDUSD: AUDUSD - Wave C Zig Zag Unfolding
54 0 6
AUDUSD, D
AUDUSD - Wave C Zig Zag Unfolding

I am looking for higher in a 3rd Wave of a C Wave. I would put a stop under the last low around .746 if you are going long.

michaelarias michaelarias PRO AUDNZD, 240, Long ,
AUDNZD: AUDNZD - Wave 3 of 3 of ? - You guessed it.
67 0 7
AUDNZD, 240 Long
AUDNZD - Wave 3 of 3 of ? - You guessed it.

Lets not forget my previous related chart. Its on the move now.

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