mikebod

mikebod Updated 

US Oil has broken through an 13 month uptrend with force. Possible negative impacts on Energy stocks, XLE, and Loonie once trend is confirmed.

mikebod

May be decisive break or failure today after Fed speak.

mikebod

Based on my previous, long-term chart, I would expect a retracement of the steep drop over the last two months to at least the 33% Fib retracement (~1.2900). However, given the political turmaoil that has driven this drop, I am placing a close MANUAL stop to a close below 1.2300.

mikebod

After breaking clean through a 2 year, multi-week TL (yellow line) with no resistance, USD/CAD is now approaching a multi-year (green)TL stretching back to September, 2012. This, I believe, should provide some resistance, and an opportune place to cover anyone who shorted the pair in the last few weeks.

mikebod

This should result in a bounce back up to at least the Fib 50% mark of the recent drop (~1.136). Long term, given the negative impact of dropping global oil prices on the Canadian Economy, I expect at least some consolidation over the next few weeks.