Composite Index is still moving sideways but it has potential to continue upward direction.
ID10Y or Bond also is breaking out the down trendline which mean the yield is continuing upward direction too.
Composite is Bullish, ID10Y is Bearish.
I separate Big Caps stocks of JCI into 3 categories : Big Bank (BBCA, BBRI, BMRI and BBNI), Others (ASII and TLKM) and Consumer (INDF, ICBP and UNVR).
During 2022, the graphs is showing that Consumer stocks behave as Defensive Stocks that holds JCI during the bad time while Big Bank and Others lead JCI.
Recent rally of JCI shows that Big Bank and Others (once...
Here are the relation between Indonesia Interest Rate (BI Rate then continue as BI 7D Reverse Repo Rate) and Inflation (YoY) also Indonesia Bond Yield and Inflation.
I put Indonesia Rate as comparison.
I monitor the big caps stocks that very much become the core of Composite.
The stocks are : BBCA, BBRI, BMRI, BBNI, ASII, TLKM, INDF, ICBP and TLKM.
I excluded GOTO because it has no enough previous movement.
I didn't include HMSP and GGRM because of their low Free Market Weighted.
Banking Stock near its Support while ASII+TLKM is has room to fall before...
Most of these Construction Sectors are still Sideways. However, there is one stocks that has the best signs of ending its Sideways and that stock is ADHI. Another promising stocks is PTPP then WSKT. WIKA is the least favourite.
ADHI has broken up its Resistance at IDR790. Though it is now below that level, ADHI still maintain Up Trendline from end of May 2022. I...
If the US Treasury Spread Yield between 10 Year and 2 Year turns negative, SPX will fall AFTER the spread move to positive territory.
The spread is about to turn negative since the 10 year yield is about to break Resistance (from highest since Oct'18. The yield ended its Downtrend since middle of 2021. It's about to confirm Uptrend by breaking out Resistance at...
I predict EEMA or MSCI Emerging Markets Asia and AAXJ or MSCI Asia ex Japan are Bottoming.
There are Bullish Divergence between the ETFs and RSI 14.
This means that stock market in Asia is ending the Downtrend and starting to Uptrend.
Using WMA 60 period, we can see that the Moving Average is in rising trend. This indicates that VIX is on the rise.
Since VIX means Risk, higher VIX means higher Risk that translate "Bearish" in market.
The charts above are Ratio Charts among CPO Stocks such as : AALI, LSIP, SSMS, DSNG and TAPG.
If the chart is rising, it means that the stock is Outperform compare to other CPO Stocks.
If the chart is falling, it means that the stock is Underperform compare to other CPO Stocks.
Trend Analysis and Peak Analysis can be applied here.
The difference between US Inflation (YoY) and Fed Fund Rate reaches all time high, higher since 1955.
I conclude, The Fed is really fall behind the curve (vs Inflation).
The Fed must take a huge step. No wonder market worry.
I compared the COMPOSITE and yield spread between the US10Y and ID10Y and discovered that whenever the spread reaches its peak, the Composite bottoms and then begins to move uptrend.
Meanwhile, every time the spread reaches bottom, the Composite is peaking then start to move Downtrend.
Currently, I think the spread is bottoming and that will lead to the...
I compare the charts of YS Treasury Yield Spread between 10 years and 2 years and SPX.
In the chart, it shows that everytime the spread comes out from negative area, the SPX falls (crash).
This is the reason why Economist say that Yield Spread is the predictor of Recession that leads to Market Crash
I want to show how inflation occurs in several countries that should be affected by the high commodity prices and the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
For comparison, I include Indonesia and the US.
Russia and Ukraine experience very high inflation, which is natural since they are both in conflict and many countries give Russia sanctions.
However, I noted that US...
Here is shown the return of many IDX Indexes since 2022.
My favorite is IDX80.
Other IDX Indexes that should be in the spotlight are IDX30, IDXG30, IDXV30, and IDXQ30.
Interesting to see that IDXG30 and IDXV30 are outperformed IDXQ30. This shows that Investors prefer Growth Stocks (and Value Stocks) over Quality Stocks.
During conditions that are good for...