The spread between Indonesia Bond 10Yr with US Treasury 10Yr reached the highest level since the end of 2016. The spread is now at 5.8% wherein the beginning of 2018, the spread is only at 3.6% and 5.4% at the beginning of 2019.
The latest increase of the spread (since Jul'19) is caused by the falling of UST 10Yr at high speed (from 2.1% to 1.5% in just a...
ID10Y ends Pullback by falling from near-Resistance at 7.45%.
This is one of the characteristics of Pullback.
A pullback is also a confirmation that Downtrend is imminent.
I predict ID10Y will continue its Downtrend until it reaches 6.5%.
Yield SUN10Yr berpotensi melanjutkan Tren Turun menuju 6.5% setelah Breakdown Support di 7.45%.
Kenaikan Yield di bulan awal April 2019 dari 7.45% menuju 8.2% terlihat sebagai Tech. Rebound yaitu kenaikan ditengah Downtrend (Tren Turun).
Oleh karena itu, dengan Breakdown Support di 7.45% yang terjadi dipertengahan Jun'19 lalu, Yield mengonfirmasi Tren Turun dari...
Meskipun 77% emiten - emiten di NYSE mengatakan laporan keuangan 1H19 tidak sebagus estimasi para analis, namun S&P500 Breakout All Time High dan mengindikasikan melanjutkan Uptrend setidaknya dengan potensi kenaikan sebesar 11%.
Penurunan yang akan datang patut dipertimbangkan sebagai Technical Correction namun bila S&P500 turun di bawah Higher Low terakhir...
I predict Rupiah (USDIDR) might keep depreciating to more than Rp14,300/USD.
If Rupiah Breakout Resistance (Rp14,300/USD), then the possibility of Rupiah strengthening to Rp13,600/USD or any level below Rp14,000/USD is vanished. Rupiah will be on the verge to keep weakening to its lowest level at Rp15,300/USD.
Rupiah must move below Rp14,000/USD...
S&P500 could end Downtrend that has begun since Oct'18 by Breakout Down Trendline at 2,680. After Breakout, S&P500 might begin Uptrend to reach 3,000.
In short term, S&P500 may fall as Tech. Correction 2,600. Should S&P500 stay above 2,600, i'm pretty sure there is a high probability S&P500 would rise and Breakout 2,680 and start Uptrend to 3,000.
USDIDR could move to Rp14,900/USD after finishing consolidating around Rp14,300 - Rp14,400 for almost a month.
By moving above Rp14,000, USDIDR is continuing "Uptrend" to at least Rp14,900 (above highest level at Jokowi's administration at Rp14,800). The depreciation this time might as well bring Rupiah to touch Rp15,000/USD.
USDIDR could and might touch Rp14,800, highest level during President Joko Widodo administration.
There is a possibility Rupiah go beyond Rp14,800 and reach Rp15,000 but i predict it won't happen since Rp14,800 should be a strong psychology Resistance.
However, Rupiah should move within a range of Rp14,300 - Rp14,600 for the rest of 2018.
ANTM is about to finish Bullish Continuation that should lead ANTM to Rp1,100.
ANTM need to Breakout Rp920 to validate the pattern.
Another fall to Rp840 - Rp850 is still acceptable and within the pattern formation.
Be careful when ANTM falls down to below Rp800.
ADRO has a change to reverse Downtrend to Uptrend by Breaking out Rp2,000 that might happen soon (this Jul'18).
When ADRO broke out Rp2,000, ADRO has a change to begin Uptrend to Rp2,300.
Still need be carefull not to jump on the possible false Breakout since ADRO is in Downtrend.
Watchout any Breakdown below Rp1,750.
RALS is most likely continuing Uptrend to Rp1,700 by Breaking out Resistance at Rp1,500 anytime soon this Jul'18.
Uptrend is proven by RALS maintaining position above Rp1,300 (RALS did Invalid Breakdown, which emphasize the Uptrend).
Still need to be carefull when RALS Breakdown below Rp1,300.
TLKM has been forming Bullish Reversal since mid Mar'18.
The form is most likely to be Inverse Head and Shoulders and its price objective is Rp4,600.
TLKM need to have a valid Breakout at Rp3,900 and currently, is in the process to do so.
EXCL has been forming Head and Shoulders (H&S) since early Feb'18 as Bullish Reversal pattern to reverse Downtrend to Uptrend.
Soon EXCL will rise above Rp2,800 which means a Breakout Resistance that validate H&S.
The stated H&S gives EXCL a target to Rp3,900.