I monitor these charts as I expect the lower Risk (base on lower VIX) means that Investor is getting more bullish despite Covid-19 is still far away from being controlled.
Although there is a little spike, I am sure VIX will not move above 40 - 50 and will stay in high range during normal period.
This normal VIX will ensure it become a tailwind for S&P500 to...
Big Banks show underperformance during JKSE crash. As expected, being Market Proxy, only BBCA (as one of Big Banks) relatively has similar performance with JKSE.
As Cyclical Stocks and during PSBB (Semi-Lockdown), understandably ASII underperform JKSE. No one is buying a car this time.
Staples Consumer Stocks such as UNVR and Cigarettes perform well during Semi...
I believe sector Industrial Area, Property, Food (Poultry) and certain Industry will record good return once JKSE start to rise.
I still believe Investment will come soon after this Pandemic over whether Omnibus Law will be signed or not. So I think Industrial Area Stocks (BEST, DMAS and SSIA) are my choice.
Consumption is proven to be resilient and that is why...
USDIDR has fallen since early April 2020 from Rp17,000/USD to Rp15,150/USD.
In my opinion, this move is to end a weakening trend of Rupiah that started in early 2020. To do that, Rupiah must continue to move below Rp14,700/USD.
If somehow Rupiah stays within Rp15,000/USD range, there is a possibility that a weakening trend of Rupiah will still happen anytime...
JKSE (Composite) moved in a small downtrend since April 2020 but this I think this move was part of Bullish Continuation that should continue a Rally from the end of March 2020 (from ~3,900 to ~4,900).
However, I still yet to see Bullish Reversal Pattern that can reverse Downtrend of JKSE that started in early 2020. In that case, the potential upward move to...
Big Bank tends to be Bullish because of Indonesia's economic structure.
So when Big Bank was kept rising, it didn't show the problem that already boiled (in 2019).
I watch Other Big Caps to better gauge Composite's movement which consists of more Index Sectoral that just Banking Sector.
Other Big Caps already showed Downtrend since early 2019 where Bank just...
Consumer Goods Stocks (Food, Staples and even Cigarettes) is expectedly Outperform Composite at a bad time.
Cyclical Stocks (ASII and surprisingly TLKM - during this WFH trend) Underperform Composite from the beginning.
Finance Stocks as a backbone of Composite move closely with Composite but in the early days before Market Crash, Finance Stocks was Outperform Composite.
Rupiah is the weakest currency in South East Asia.
Even though Indonesia relatively has lower Debt to GDP Ratio amongst SEA countries, Indonesia's reliance on import and lack of export variance might be the risk aspect.
However, Indonesia's economy that mostly based on Consumption might be healed relatively quick compared to other SEA Countries that rely on...
I try to predict Composite bottoming by looking at the 7 biggest market cap stocks.
In the chart, There are two categories of those 7 which are : Underperforming (BBRI, BMRI, and ASII) and Outperforming (BBCA, TLKM, UNVR, and HMSP).
Looking at the total Weight of Outperforming stocks (26.5%) and comparing to the Underperforming stocks (12.7%), we can say that...
These are the charts that I'm monitoring in order to see the Inverted Yield Curve.
The Blue Line is a spread between ID10Y and ID05Y that indicate Benchmark and Short Term Yield.
The Red Line is a spread between ID20Y that represents Long Term Yield and ID10Y as Benchmark.
ID10Y tend to rise to 9 :
But US10Y tend to fall below zero level following other developed countries Bond Yield :
I believe the spread between ID10Y and US10Y will be larger and might breach the highest spread since 2015 at this current spread of 7.5%.
I don't believe the...
The current advance of JKSE might be a Technical Rebound or a temporary rise during Downtrend.
Since Downtrend is still intact, the future drop might be deeper than this advance.
I predict JKSE will fall below its lowest point (at 3,911) and could reach 3,750.
However, I believe this is one last drop before JKSE starts to form the Bottom or Bullish Reversal...
I believe when oil reaches a low level, the end is near because other players will not accept losing.
What does the action they take so they don't lose? Flip the table.
Lower oil also coincides with the bottoming of stock markets :
Gold also starts to rise so it seems that the Investor has found their risk appetite...
Oil (Brent and WTI) has been continuously lower since OPEC and Russia disagreed with each other at the same time as the first outbreak of Corona in Wuhan, China.
The dispute continues, Arab Saudi pumps more oil and pushes oil price to reach lower at $20 - $30 per barrel.
I think this is a holding breath contest. A country that can withstand lower oil (without...
After falling -40% since the beginning of 2020, SPX - DJI - DJT and RUT start to rise.
The story behind why they are rising might be because Investor see the reason why the market is crash at the first place is almost over.
I am not expecting to see those four indexes are rising continuously. At least there will one more fall before we can expect they rise.
SPX and RUT (as a better US Stock Market Indicators - to me) seem are meeting their Bottom which I think those indexes are about to form a Bottom Patter.
US10Y may go lower but maybe will not reach below zero.
Strengthening DXY is more likely to fall since The Fed releases unlimited QE that should end US Dollar scarcity.
Overall, I believe Bear Market is on its...