With the new data came from USDTRY parity going as far back as 1990's, I could plot the graph of entire Istanbul Stock Exchange Index from it's beginning point. And as I looked at it, it looks pretty bullish to me over the long term. What are your thoghts about this idea? Let me know in the comments section below.
4000 was a major support level, the other key suppoort levels for the next 12 months are 3500 and 2600, I don't think we would go lower than COVID crash but manage your risk accordingly,
Looks fine to me, might try to long some below this line. tbh it's a shitty business with race to the bottom competition but it might bounce from here, if not, grow fast or die young :)
Above 40 is crisis type situation, I don't think it will surpass that mark but keep an eye on treasury yields and credit spreads, they are the canary in the coal mine
I think commodities are in a supercycle and it can last more than 10 years because of the inflationary period we are now living in. I think oil WILL NOT stay in these levels. $88 and $93 levels are I'm currently looking at but if those levels can't hold we could see violent moves to $40-$50 range. On a sidenote this chart is inflation adjusted oil prices so elliot...
As you can see, since 1997, Turkish Lira has lost 99% of it's value against U.S dollar. Same story in Argentina too. In the past, Argentina catch up and outperformed turkish lira in depreciation against dollar. I guess lira is taking that throne back. Who knows let's see.
I compared the past move of the USD/TRY between 12 June 2017- To 18 February 2019 to recent move. Make your own conclusions from that but I think that will be the macro top before the interest rate hike cycle. If it breaches those levels, then I will be worrying about the stability of the Turkey's financial system.
I know that 10 mark is a huge mental resistance for the average turkish people. If I was longing this I would be very cautious about it. But nonetheless, the direction is generally up with some interest rate hiking cycles down the road.
Stagflation scenarios are making headlines on the major news outlets. Many of us don't exist in the 80's so it will be a shock to those of whom who waiting for a positively correlated gold and bond moves. This is not a short term idea and it could still enter the downtrend canal again but I want to mention this idea because many people fade away gold & silver to...
I think we are seeing a semi-wyckoff distribution from BTC just like in Feb-May. If this doesn't work out, we are gonna see a downtrend in BTC into the September. And I think that it will work out as a wyckoff accumulation (inverse of wyckoff distribution) and we will broke the previous ATH. But let's see.
Bond market didn't seem to react to incoming tapering as much as risk-on assets. Which is strange, this trade idea needs a little bit time to see which way it will break. My bet is that it will break this channel and move upwards because of the tapering but let's see.
We're in a downtrend canal in 10-year bond yields. As you may know, bond prices and it's yields are inverse correlated. So this is not exactly a short scenario but I guess you could short synthetic US10Y etc. I'm expecting this trend to last at least to the end of summer.
I think we're seeing the same double bottom pattern in March in this setup. As you may know, there is a multi-year cup and handle pattern in the XAU/USD and I think it will continue to trend upwards to above $2,200.
