mtb1980

mtb1980

10yr KC Wheat outlook: Potential course of the KC Wheat market for the next 10 years. Overall the Wheat chart takes a more gradual incline up over the past 50 years but when the market gets spooked, prices can rally in a violant way. After this market tops, I feel the World’s supply and demand fundamentals of all Ag Commodities could support a more gradual...

mtb1980

KC Wheat – 3mo Continuous: Comparing our current Bull market with the previous major bull markets of the past 50 years. Currently the 24 mo ROC high was set in March at 225% with a price of 12.99. If KC Wheat is to match the 06-08 ROC of 275%, then that would project a price of $15.00 **Disclosure** Do not take this as trading advice. The potential is there...

mtb1980

Corn – 3mo Continuous: Comparing our current Bull market with the previous 4 major bull markets of the past 50 years. Previous price action on charts are often used for support and resistance. I like to look at rate of change during certain periods. Currently the 24 mo ROC is at 140% and compares to the 95-96 and the 11-12 rally’s. The previous all time high...

mtb1980

Beans – 3mo Continuous: Comparing our current Bull market with the previous major bull markets of the past 50 years. Currently the 24 mo ROC is at 92%. If beans move to the upper trendline in the $20.00 area it would be a 130% ROC and would “pale in comparison” to the 06-08 and 71-73 bull markets. A 200% ROC on the charts would look very ugly to some and...

mtb1980 Updated 

The high to low cycle in the dollar is looking to complete the primary target at the 88% retracement price at 102.25. **High to low cycle: Pivot high to Low retracement and have price action surpass the 24% retracement and downtrend line. Move up to fill the 38% target and hold uptrend without making a new low. Further upside targets Resistance above at...

mtb1980

E-mini S&P 500 (futures) – Daily: Pitchfork trend is maintaining momentum lower and price action has tested the median line support. If price action moves below then look for support/risk against the lower level line. Should ES catch a bounce look for resistance against the upper level line.

mtb1980

E-mini S&P 500 (futures) – Daily: Momentum Indicators (Stochastic, MACD, RSI) Trying to maintain upward momentum, but mostly neutral. Ichimoku (at a glance) Indicator(s) Blue Tenkan and Red Kijun support at 4435. Cloud support just above at 4456. Yellow Lagging indicator coming up against a previous strong uptrend move. Will that catch current price action for...

mtb1980

E-mini S&P 500 (futures) – Weekly: Momentum Indicators (Stochastic, MACD, RSI) Trying to maintain upward momentum, but mostly neutral. Ichimoku (at a glance) Indicator(s) Blue Tenkan line and Cloud support at 4366 held last week and so far this week. Yellow Lagging (26wk) indicator is attracted to previous price action and has been retracing previous prices the...

mtb1980

When carry out stocks are plentiful and the market structure is more definable, spreads seem easy to manage. In the current domestic and world market structure of strong demand and less supply, it seems that trying to add value to hedges with capturing carry may be more of a risk play. It is wise to manage the risks we know and the risks we can. Carry...

mtb1980

When carry out stocks are plentiful and the market structure is more definable, spreads seem easy to manage. In the current domestic and world market structure of strong demand and less supply, it seems that trying to add value to hedges with capturing carry may be more of a risk play. It is wise to manage the risks we know and the risks we can. Carry...

mtb1980

Using the low to high retracements, KC Wheat is currently finding consolidation of support in the 10.20 area. Below 10.00, lower targets remain at 9.56 and 8.62. Volume based risk down at 8.07. If we can confirm the recent low at 9.93 I will draw upside retracement targets. For now resistance above at 10.75 to 10.95.

mtb1980

New Crop beans quickly moved up to fill the primary (162% retracement) target at 14.14 and continued further to 15.55. The Close below the blue Tenkan line will have Nov22 beans searching for price action down to the red Kijun line at 13.74. Volume by price is running low below 14.00 and that should concern the bulls as further risk would be in the 13.10...

mtb1980

Friday’s break into the cloud has the look for the short-term outlook to have a change in trend. From bullish to 1. Sideways or 2. Bearish….The blue tenkan line is about to cross under the red kijun line. The lagging indicator (gray line) is attempting to pass through and below previous price action. **notice the volatile activity during the time that the gray...

mtb1980

The 17.59 high left behind the week of Feb 22 had price action accelerate into the bull trap area (113%-127% retracements) and quickly fell back to close lower for the week. We had since moved up, but beans failed to find bullish energy to make a new high. The weekly close below the blue Tenkan line has the bulls on alert. Support below at 15.48 and then...

mtb1980

Using the last week of February for high to low retracement targets, 6.42 becomes the Primary target on this next leg higher. Support is the last swing high at 6.03. Volume of support just under 5.50 There are some fairly bullish charts out there, but the big question is how do ag and energy markets react should the equity and financial markets move lower… A...

mtb1980

The fundamentals for new crop corn remain supportive to continuing this bullish market. Technically, to continue bullish enthusiasm, Dec22 Corn needs to hold weekly closes above the 6.31 low posted last week. This market’s upside still remains unmeasurable, but we can try…. Primary target above at 7.11. Should something spark a runaway move higher look at 7.60...

mtb1980

Price action mostly in a consolidation or sideways channel between 6.93 and 7.47. Most volume by price in the 7.20-7.30 area. Accumulation ahead of a breakout above, or distribution ahead of a break down below??? Support below at 6.65 with risk identified in the 5.85 to 6.15 area. Using the current high to low retracements, the next primary target above is the...

mtb1980

Price stalled out in the bull trap area between 7.66 and 8.00 after placing the 7.82 high. Bull Trap- Mark a new high and clear out any stop orders above previous highs but fail above in the 113%-127% retracement area. Open interest has been trending lower since last year’s breakout into this bull market. Funds are near record long already but with the...