This might sound a bit crazy given the latest spout of good earnings we have had, minus AAPL and AMZN earnings!
You will see most of my analysis sees a bit outrageous and contrary to the prevailing market trends.
However, I have been expecting markets to fall for quite a while now, and it appears to me that we can expect the start of a medium term fall,...
I've been expecting this for a while now, since brent hit $75 for the first time in teh recent weeks. but it seems to resilient and doesnt seem to fall back to support around $70.
But i think im clocked it... brent has almost reached $73 as calculated. I think we will see a pull up to around $75 again as teh selling pressure has already weakened.
I think its fair to agree that in the long term, with interest rates expected to rise, and monetary policy tightening, that bond yields willl rise inevitably. but the question really is when.
Whilst i cant judge when that will be... i can try and get some good timings (for short positions on bonds - since bond prices are inverse to yield).
I'm no liking the technical divergences I am seeing on my charts on Gold.
Although i was expecting Gold to reach 1850 at least after its recent big fall... the technical divergences suggest there is likely to be some downward movements from 1800 BEFORE any further actual upward movement.
I am aiming for near 1775. after which i should be Long again.
Markets are strong and the outlook currently is very bullish. So anyone who thinks that markts will drop significantly in the mid to long term would be laughed at right?
But i just cant help but notice that markets are way too high at the moment. everything seems pretty over valued - although market analysts will say the valuations are just about at the right...
USD has spiked up a lot since we had teh fed meeting and teh core CPI data. I'm not sure its ready to head off yet... i think we will see a pull back close to 90 after this little push up happening today.
Target = 90 (near abouts)
Oil, Gasoline etc quite over bought, we need a correction.
Lets take this down to 2.175 and re assess. i imagine there will be a pause there before any further falls.
Dont expect downward movement to last long though, oil is very strong generally... so its quite risky shorting, but i can let this opportunity go with a tight stop loss.
I hate to be on the short side of anythign related to oil at the moment, but gasoline has shown some weakness so im going to take a punt on this.
The wedge on gasoline should come to a breakout shortly,. giving a SHORT target to 2.13 at least.
Coppers trading range is narrowing quite a bit.
initially i got my timiing wrong on this (see other analysis), but now seems to be teh right time for a reversal breakout upwards.
expect copper to head up to $4.40. will need to reassess there to decide which way next.
overall long term expecting copper down.
Gold selling is overdone on a reaction to feds meeting last week.
Bond yields have already dipped back to a new low.
Gold hasnt quite reacted yet.
Im going to ignore teh small fluctionation on teh way... and LONG GOLD to 1850.
1850 is a very crtical level technically, i will reassess there to understand when to do the BIG SHORT.
Buy Gold to 1850 for now.
It looks like we got a small window to LONG Copper.
Price should break out of this falling wedge pattern and retrace to 61% FIB level.
lets seee. Im going Long on this, since Copper is fundamentally strong.
Gold has been hammered the last 2 days. falling almost $100 in 2 days only.one of the sharpest falls for Gold in a very long time.
far oversold with the fed meeting yesterday, market seems to have over reacted.
Price has stretched too far from its hourly EMA 200, price would usually pull back.
Expect gold to move upward somehwere near 1850.
key levels to...
Bond yields should be dipping temporarily today after FOMC meeting and FED rate decisions. This is also evident on teh technical charts.
Yield price has to do a retest of the recent low (or nearby) before heading off continuing the reversal.
Lets see if it works out.
The recent record highs in copper seems to be quite over done.
Chart has formed a backward wedge of some sort, which typically reverses down.
Expect copper to slowly move south over the coming month to the 61% FIb level.
Brent came down exactly as expected yesterday with EIA results not giving much reason for further increase.
Formed a wedge during teh fall, expect price to retrace to around 72.3 today. nice quick opportunity there.