novvoll12

novvoll12

SPY 190.52 neutral – Bounced off the 181.00, 15-month range support area SPY sold off sharply since the beginning of the year, reaching a new YTD low at 181.02 (January 20, 2016) near the 181.92/182.40 15-month range support area (October 15, 2014/August 24, 2015 reaction lows) before bouncing. Near term, the 191.70 resistance (38.2% of the 208.48/181.02 fall)...

novvoll12

AUDUSD@ 0.6906 - daily bearish – Posts new lows below last September low AUDUSD broke down through the 3-month consolidation rising trendline (from September 4, 2015 low) to post new lows below .6907 (September 4, 2015 low). The indicators remain oversold, warning of potential consolidation. While the .7049 resistance area (January 13, 2016 range high) caps...

novvoll12

Crude Oil WTI @ 28.93 - bearish – Posts new lows towards 2003 low at 25.00 Crude Oil WTI (CL) broke down below 33.20 (January 2009 monthly low) to post new lows below 30.00. There is scope for further downside towards 25.04 (April 2003 low) next. Historically, Oil traded down to 10.49 in December 1998 while staying below the 26.74/27.15 range highs (January...

novvoll12

BABA 83.71 neutral – Forms a 2-month triangle range BABA has formed a narrowing 2-month triangle under the 86.42 area (November 2, 2015 high), shy of 50% of the 120.00/57.20 entire fall (November 2014 peak/September 2015 low). What is key to bulls is to clear the 86.42 resistance to confirm a bullish triangle breakout and charge ahead towards the 95.06 lower...

novvoll12

SPY 205.68 neutral – Consolidates within a 14-month 17%/31 point range SPY has formed a 14-month long 17%/31 point range between 181.92 (October 13, 2014 weekly low) and 213.78 (May 18, 2015 record high). Currently it is about 4% away from the range ceiling at 213.78. The market has to clear the 211.66 resistance area (November 2, 2015 weekly high) to retest the...

novvoll12

SPY 200.02 bearish – An 8-week range top breakdown points lower SPY reversed sharply lower at 208.48 (December 17, 2015 post-FOMC rate hike Thursday high) to confirm a breakdown below the 8-week range support (201.65/202.18) area (as shown on the daily chart), pointing lower. Further losses open the 196.33/195.03 gap (October 5/2, 2015). Below there would risk...

novvoll12

USDCHF@ 0.9908 - daily neutral – Expects range-bound near term USDCHF pulled back 61.8% of the October/November 0.9475/1.0328 rise to reach 0.9786 (December 14, 2015 low) before consolidating. Near term the pair is expected to prolong the range-bound action under the 1.0076 resistance area (near the 20 day moving average). Below 0.9786 lies the key support...

novvoll12

GBPCHF@ 1.4761 bearish – Breaks below 9-month rising wedge support; eyes lower GBPCHF reversed sharply lower off 1.5572 (November 16, 2015 YTD high, near the 61.8% retracement of the 1.8114/1.1463 June 2009/August 2011 fall) to breach 9-month rising wedge support (as shown on the weekly chart). The weakening indicators suggest scope remains for further downside...

novvoll12

EURUSD @ 1.0834 bearish – Resistance cluster is capping the bounce EURUSD stalled at 1.1060 (December 15, 2015 range high, near the 200 day moving average), shy of the 1.1123 retracement level (61.8% of the 1.1494/1.0517 fall) and the 18-month down trendline from May 5, 2014 peak). While the area caps, bears gained the upperhand, pulling back 50% of the...

novvoll12

EURUSD @ 1.0976 bullish – Potential for higher towards resistance cluster EURUSD extended the strong rebound off the 1.0517 weekly, reversal low (November 30, 2015) to reach 1.1043 (December 7, 2015 weekly high), retracing over 50% of the 1.1494/1.0517 fall. The daily indicators remain positive, suggesting there is scope for further gains towards the next...

novvoll12

EURUSD @ 1.0976 bullish – Potential for higher towards resistance cluster EURUSD extended the strong rebound off the 1.0517 weekly, reversal low (November 30, 2015) to reach 1.1043 (December 7, 2015 weekly high), retracing over 50% of the 1.1494/1.0517 fall. The daily indicators remain positive, suggesting there is scope for further gains towards the next...

novvoll12

SPY 201.88 bearish – Completes an 8-week range top SPY reversed sharply lower during the week to test the 201.65 8-week low (October 19, 2015), forming a trading range between 211.66 (November 2, 2015 high) and 201.65. A sustained break below the 201.65 area next week would offer scope for further downside towards the 196.33/195.03 gap area (September 28...

novvoll12

BABA 79.74 bearish – The 86.42 area near key retracement caps BABA was capped in the 86.42 area (November 2, 2015 high) near 76.4% of the 95.06/57.20 fall. Last week’s downside reversal signals further weakness towards the 75.64 range support (November 9, 2015 low). Below lies the 71.49 retracement level (50% of 57.20/86.42 rise) where bulls may find a foothold....

novvoll12

YHOO 34.35 – neutral – Probes 12-month falling channel resistance YHOO extended the upleg from the 27.20 YTD low (September 28, 2015) to 36.39 (November 30, 2015 weekly high), testing 12-month falling channel resistance (December 29, 2014 weekly high). A decisive breakout is needed to suggest a key low at 27.20 is in place and accelerate gains towards 37.71...

novvoll12

EURUSD 1.0663 – neutral – Stages a 4-week falling wedge breakout to prolong consolidation EURUSD reversed sharply higher off the 1.0520 low (December 3, 2015) near the 1.0519 higher low (April 13, 2015) to break out of a 4-week falling wedge (as shown on the daily chart), signaling scope for further upside towards the 1.0830 resistance area (November 12, 2015...

novvoll12

SMH 56.46 – bullish – Rises within a 3.5-month rising channel SMH rallied strongly to retrace 76.4% of the 60.13/43.53 (June/August 2015) fall. Further strength opens 58.41 (June 22, 2015 weekly high) then the 60.13 record high (June 2015 peak). The 52.43 higher low area (November 9, 2015 weekly low) should provide support for dips. Only below there would...

novvoll12

USDJPY 123.15 – Neutral – Narrowing range remains intact USDJPY has been tracing a narrowing price range over the last 4 weeks under the 123.76 high (November 18, 2015). The 122.22/121.50 (November 16 low/October 27 high, 2015) near the 200 day moving average should provide support for dips. An upside break through 123.76 is needed to extend the current rally...

novvoll12

USDCAD bullish – Strengthens within a 7-week rising wedge USDCAD strengthens within a 7-week rising wedge (as shown on the daily chart) to offer scope for a return towards the 1.3436 high (November 23, 2015) near the 1.3456 YTD peak (September 29, 2015). A decisive break above the latter would confirm a bullish continuation pattern for the pair and suggest...