nuggetrouble

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The problem with having a strong support zone, is that when that support zone is lost. Stops are run and the sell off is accentuated. Eventhough, there is certainly a bullish case to be made for risk assets. Why take the risk? It may best to look at other non-related sectors to hid out in. Look at the strength in XLP...... XLY/XLP (Discretionary/Staples) ...

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Bitcoin has held up comparatively well against its pre-covid levels. Prior to COVID, BTC was at ~10K. After a huge market sell off BTC stands slouched at 20K, up 100% still! This leads to the question of should you buy or not? I don't believe the current economic landscape provides the evidence needed to support a crypto bull market inception but, I certainly...

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Risk assets such as, Bitcoin/Crypto, Tesla, QQQ, GDX, TIPS, EEM, etc.. all profit when real interest rates decline . Persistently high Inflation expectations will slow the rise in Real Rates potentially bringing price stability to risk assets. A bullish rally could be brewing when are you buying?? Real Interest Rates: Nominal Rates - Inflation Rate...

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SPY is down over 20% and the VIX is at ~27!! Extremely low in relation to current market conditions. Based on the Fed’s recent economic projection , unemployment is set to rise 0.6% in 2023!!! In turn a drop of PCE inflation from 5.4% to 2.8% is projected. Implicating a US recession and a possible global recession. Pivoting Powell is donning the Volker mask and...

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Here we have the Yield Curve: Treasuries are shown from lowest duration (US03MY) to highest duration (US30Y). Normally, the lowest duration treasuries yield the least (least) and the highest duration treasuries yield the most (riskiest). However, now the 3-Year Treasury yields more than the 5 year, 10 year and 30 year. The Fed has decided on a hard landing and...

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BTC is at a great buy zone if you are bullish. But, the problem is that it is a free fall below that level. 12500 seems like the obvious price target if BTC were to fall. Possible support at 20000. Real Interest Rates have been the forward looking indicator for all risk-on assets especially BTC. As Real Interest Rates rise, it becomes A LOT less attractive for...

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Things will get ugly if SPY goes below 400. Watch for the Dollar to break upwards from the rectangle pattern that started in 2015. Be careful.....liquidity events don't adhere to TA...

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Inflation is mainly an Energy issue but, conditions are so stimulative/inflationary.That inflation has broadened out. Inflation for the past weeks/months has only been about food/energy but, the fed thinks that Core Inflation also needs to be controlled. The Housing market and the Labor market signify a "roaring" economy.... A big labor force with good wages WILL...

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Gold follows real interest rates,,,,,it's the simplest correlation in the books..... The Orange Line is Gold-Inverse. The Chart shows: US10Y (10YearYield US Treasury) - T10YIE (Ten Year Inflation expectation) = Real Rate If you are bullish on Gold real rates need to retreat. If you are bearish on Gold real rates need to soar. X.x nuggetrouble........

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Real Rates have served as a forward looking indicator for Tech and Commodities..... This post at its core is a reminder that: As inflation expectations fall: real rates move higher. A high inflation expectation leads real rates to move lower allowing markets to rise. Read that again. A high inflation expectation leads real rates to move lower allowing markets to...

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Distribution or Accumulation? - Is WallStreet Manufacturing an Exit or Hoarding for the Long Term? Exciting, impulsive market moves are followed by frustrating, distributive markets. Boring markets are then followed by exciting markets!! This is how charts move. Impulsive and corrective moves represent buyer sentiment. Corrections in the opposite direction of...

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Yes, I believe so. The collapse of the Russian economy will hit Europe and Asia a lot harder than the United States. It's hard for the ECB's hawkishness to be taken seriously when Europe can't even get their hands on natural gas, oil or corn. The US is coming off the backs of very accommodative stimulus and Americans consumers are ready to spend. American...

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Mosaic is the largest U.S. producer of potash and phosphate fertilizer. I remain bullish but, short term downside can be looming ahead. Fundamentally, it is poised to profit. The world's population is developing rapidly. As, third world countries transition to a "modern" way of living so will their consumption habits. Expect them to eat a lot better food and a...

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Real Interest Rates move inversely of Gold. Gold's next move will be dependent on a continually decreasing Real Interest Rate. From 2000 to 2011, Gold increased from $260 to $1900. In 2000, Real Rates were roughly at 5%. In 2011, Real Rates were at -1.7%. A significant drop in Real Rates contributed to Gold's price appreciation. From 2015 to 2020, Real Rates...

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Investors preference between XLP and QQQ is important to pay attention to as it shows the trade-off of "risk off equities" (XLP) versus "Risk on equities" (QQQ). The last time XLP was at these levels relative to Tech was in 1999! The chart above shows XLP/QQQ. As you can see, XLP outperforms heavily during larger degree market corrections. Since December 2021...

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TA: QQQ is at a key support level right now. Bears can break Tech's upward channel; this will see QQQ go down to 274. However, Bulls are at a key 50% retracement area and still resides in a bullish channel. Fundamental: The last time the Fed began raising rates and reducing the balance sheet, equity markets continued moving up after, some initial fear. The fed...

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$MO - Altria - 6.96% $PM - Philip Morris - 4.48% $BTI - British American Tobacco - 7.92% ($MO+$PMI)/SPY - U.S Tobacco Stocks vs. SPY - When investors grow wary of markets they find comfort in Tobacco Stocks. With general markets facing increasing headwinds, investors may prefer this consumer staple. Even though, these companies are tobacco companies; their...

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:Bearish TA vs. Bullish Yields Signal: Bearish TA: Nasty looking Head and Shoulders however, we are at an area where there have been a lot of buyers. Bears right now are looking for down to 30K. Bulls want to hold support here and test the 60K resistance area. Failure to break that will send BTC to 30K. Bullish Yields Signal: BTC has followed US10Y since...