nuggetrouble

nuggetrouble

"One ratio to bring them all and in the darkness bind them" The ratio of Lumber to Gold is arguably one of the most important ratios in the market. Of the 20 or so ratios I keep tabs. This ratio contains a plethora of useful information. It dictates many funds investment decisions, functions as an input in Algos and is a great indicator of the markets...

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Quick update. Markets have been oscillating in limbo lately. Trading yields the best results in markets that are trending especially if you intend on using leverage. Bulls are trying to make a move to previous highs. They were able to hold the 50% retracement from the September lows to the February highs. Also, QQQ has been in a channel since June and has...

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Business Cycles are usually categorized into 3 distinct phases: Early Cycle (Recovery/Expansion), Middle/Late Cycle (Peak) and Recession (Contraction). Predicting recessions and expansions is difficult due to the irregularities present in the business cycle. Background on Business/Debt Cycles: In general, the business cycle is governed by Keynes' idea of...

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NDX has fallen below the 50 Day Moving Average. The lack of support zones, plethora of gaps, high valuations and heavy selling volume can cause Nasdaq to see a longer correction of -10% to 25%. Nasdaq can fall back down to the September highs or the September lows. If the Nasdaq ETF falls by this much, individual stocks will fall by a lot more. Especially those,...

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IVW / IVE _ A Growth vs. Value Analysis Top Holdings: IVW - iShares S&P 500 Growth ETF : Apple (11%), Microsoft (10%), Amazon (8%), Google (6%), Facebook (3%), Tesla (3%), Nvidia (3%), PayPal (2%), Netflix (2%), Adobe (1%), IVE - iShares S&P 500 Value ETF : BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INC CLASS B (3%), JPMORGAN CHASE & CO (3%), WALT DISNEY (2%), JOHNSON & JOHNSON...

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Is this the time to buy Silver? Can the silver market really be short squeezed? Will Silver be able to break out of this double top formation? - "There's a time and place for everything, but not now." Looking at the long term trend in Silver. Silver is at an eight year high. I don't know how a short squeeze can be sustained at these levels. Silver's value...

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There are two Inverted Triangle Formations denoted by the yellow letters and the light blue letters. They are both bearish patterns currently. The Light Blue letters signal that there will be a bullish flip at E. The yellow letters signal that we will break the downward sloping pink line. There are a couple rising wedges that have formed since the bull market...

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Fundamental Analysis: Demand for Cash/US dollars. Short-term moves in the US dollar are driven by changes in US systemic liquidity flows. When looking at the US exchange rate, the factor which determines its movement are long term yields. Long Term yields are effected by changes in systemic liquidity. Changes in systemic liquidity can be observed by looking at...

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This month is an incredibly crucial week for TLT and can be a telling signal about the overall market. Fundamental Analysis: TLT is approaching the highs it made in August 2019. If TLT is considered a proxy for "risk-off" behavior. Do you think our economic landscape is as, "risk-off" as it was in August 2019? Short Duration Treasury Bills are approaching...

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It is not reasonable to say the Economy is looking good when One Year US Treasury Yields are at new lows.The bond market does not lie. It is a lot closer to the the real economy where as the stock market is riddled with speculation and frequently becomes detached from fundamentals. What does it mean that US 1 Year Treasury Bill yields are at record lows? This...

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US30Y rates forms rising wedges throughout its history before falling. Short Term rates always dictate the Long Term rates

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The Purchasing Managers Index is a diffusion index summarizing economic activity in the manufacturing sector in the US. The index is based on a survey of manufacturing supply executives conducted by the Institute of Supply Management. Participants are asked to gauge activity in a number of categories like new orders, inventories, and production and these...

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I'm being patient in this market. Stocks are up while the Dollar is up. Very rarely do you get a divergence from the inverse relationship between DXY and S&P. Meaning sometimes when the dollar goes up s&p can go up as well. But, one thing that is for certain is: Foreign governments that require US dollar reserves will end up paying relatively more to obtain those...

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Call me crazy but, I don't give a <3. The miners don't lie. Bearish Head and Shoulders formation. That is top if I ever seen one. 26 is the minimum lower target. 20 is the target I would like to see. At 12- 16 I will take out a loan to invest in GDX. The economy is not in good shape as demonstrated by GDX acting weird and very bearish. It is well known GDX is a...

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DOLLAR is rallying, this is bad for commodities and stocks but, good for bonds. EURO is falling, this is good for the dollar as, it is the most heavily weighted currency in the DXY basket. FXI has hit an area of very high resistance. The Chinese stock market is heavily correlated with SPY. Bears have been humiliated the last couple of months; I am excited to...

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Banks are the best indicator of the financial health of the market. Analysis: TLT/XLF is flashing warning signs if banks fail to make new highs. Banks are being incredibly stingy with their money lending and low interest rates are not helping their profitability. Banks are sitting on Mr.Powells printed money. I am not seeing a lot of strength in the banking...

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Fundamental Analysis: Uniti provides network operators and telecommunication companies with the physical infrastructure/capital to support internet and mobile traffic. Uniti Leasing owns, acquires, constructs and leases shared communications real estate assets including fiber, coax cable, and copper networks to communication service providers. They pretty much own...

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I have closed my positions over the last couple of weeks for 100%+ returns on both these names. I have been in FCX since $5 and X since $9. If you go back far enough in my ideas you can see that I posted about this way back when. If you look at these for the last 10 years they are in a major downtrend. I think they are both putting in reversal patterns and will...