nuggetrouble

nuggetrouble

Oil is a turbulent market because its price is heavily determined by future economic growth, the landscape of the worlds' Oil cartels, airline and car travel, investor sentiment (speculators in future market) and the pace of distribution and refinement. The new Omnicron virus has threatened the recovery in financial markets as, current valuations are based on the...

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The fed will no longer support the economy to the extent it has been since Emergency Covid measures were put in place, March of 2020. Their first step will be to decrease the PACE of asset purchases in an effort to eliminate them. Starting this month the fed will purchase $15 billion LESS of assets from the $120 billion it has been purchasing every month. One...

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Economies everywhere seemingly forsee rate hikes occurring soon and short term yielded treasuries are shooting up at rapid speeds to its pre covid levels. For perspective, longer term bonds like the US10Y have been at its pre covid levels while shorter duration notes and bills are moving up to this level quickly; flattening the curve. The lower duration yields...

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A monumental achievement for Tesla: It has finally reached a Market Cap of 1 Trillion dollars!! Tesla is the fifth company ever to reach such a valuation but, it defied the odds to be the only company on that list to still issue speculative grade bonds also known as Junk bonds. The last update came in March 2021, when "Moody's Investors Service upgraded the...

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1. How did they deal with Apple's new privacy policy (users can now opt out of targeted ads). 2. Are consumers spending less on advertised products? Advertisers will pay less for advertisements? E-commerce spending is down after last years surge. 3. Are supply chain issues affecting companies to the point they don't have anything to advertise? 4. Facebook has...

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Amazon's sales/revenue is set to decrease this quarter and their Amazon Web Services growth is falling. I would not buy Amazon ahead of earnings. IBM reported that their cloud services department did not grow as much as expected. Amazon should feel these same effects. Inflationary pressures most likely took a toll on the consumer and production/operation costs in...

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Long term: The Dollar has been range bound since 2015 in a rectangular formation. The Dollar is at a critical spot right now and is looking for bullish/bearish price action. There is a line of support/resistance at 94.7. DXY is approaching this line as resistance. If it gets above this line this is bearish for equities, btc, gold, commodities. If it goes below...

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Zillow has suspended its iBuying program, Zillow Offers, cited building backlogs and labor/supply shortages as the reason. I believe Zillow's actions supports the idea of a weakening housing market. Weakness in the housing market is attributed to dampening economic conditions. Zillow's iBuying program started in April 2018 and represented the newest frontier...

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Worldwide opposition to vaccine mandates, booster shots every "x" months, negative test required upon arrival for travel. The unvaccinated have antibodies! One of the only stocks that benefits from calamity like this is QUIDEL. In short Quidel does everything related to covid testing including testing for antigens. At the start of the pandemic Quidel rose due to...

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Total Crypto Market Cap is now $2.4 trillion!!! Bitcoin commands around $1 trillion of this total. Impressive for a sector that seemingly started at zero. During this journey from zero to a couple trillion, no actual wealth was created. It just changed hands (transferred) to the person willing to pay the highest price. Take for example, Shiba Inu. This week,...

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BTC and TESLA as Risk Assets (Leading Indicator) Bitcoin and Tesla represents the extreme risk tolerance investors have. They are "speculative" and "volatile". Tesla and BTC have become a proxy of risk-off investor sentiment. Tesla and BTC represent the "perfect" future. Investors imagine a world with - a decentralized, digital currency revolutionizing finance...

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Commodity vs. Dollar (Bearish Narrative) The US dollar is 2021 has been blazing its own trail, trending positively even though inflationary pressures should be eating away at its value. It doesn't make much sense for commodities and dollars to go up at the same time. When they move together; they usually move downward together. As the dollar gains value, more...

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Nasdaq is holding onto its channel and looks prime for a bounce soon to the top of the channel. SPY on the other hand has broken its channel but conditions still remain oversold. SPY can go down a little from here but, it will look to retest the broken trend line. The Chart of SPY from 2020 is quite scary. There are so many GAPS. Gaps occur when there is such...

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XLP - Consumer Staples are up 40% from their covid low, SPY is up over 90% since April 2020. A bottom in XLP/SPY has always signaled a larger degree market correction. Investors rush into XLP as a flight to safety. The ratio XLP/SPY looks like its chugging down still and have followed in the weakness of defensive stocks these past weeks. WAKE ME UP WHEN XLP...

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IWM - 2000 small-cap domestic stocks SPY - 500 of the largest cap U.S. stocks Why do these two charts look so different? Money Flows. SPY is a Broad-Based Index. Money flows into SPY through 401Ks, pensions, investments, etc. There is a lot of "passive" income. This is akin to the bond market. The government buys over a trillion in bonds each year. Keeping...

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TLT/HYG - RiskOff vs. RiskOn: Tells you how risky investors/lenders are... The Chart presented maps the performance of TLT (risk off) vs. HYG (risk on). It is evident that there is currently a risk off move occurring in the markets. When TLT outperforms HYG, this is bearish for equites. On the chart, I inputted vertical lines on the periods where TLT outperforms...

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Semiconductors have been rangebound since rates increased in January. Tech and in particular semis lead the market due to it being capital intensive. Rates have started to lower but semis cannot breakout. Long consolidation patterns usually end with an impulsive move to the top or the bottom. The way semis move will dictate broader markets.

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1. Gold Historically, Gold and Silver crashes weeks before market crashes. This is because of a big rise in the dollar. Silver is heading to 25 and Gold to 1675. Snapshot of 2008: Snapshot of 2000: 2. DXY and Inverted SPY DXY looks bullish and heading to 95 then 100? On Jan 7th...