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Markets Allocation
38 % forex 24 % commodities 21 % stocks 18 % other
Top Mentioned Symbols
EURUSD 8% | 3 EURGBP 8% | 3 SPX 8% | 3 USDJPY 8% | 3
oops oops DOWU, D, Short ,
DOWU: DOW Utils - won't save the bacon
110 0 0
DOWU, D Short
DOW Utils - won't save the bacon

As I expect a good correction now in S&P, usually one could switch into Utilities. My sense though is - given the great run up until here - this won't be saving the bacon. A clear negative divergence plus this classic 3-day candle stick formation is enough to switch

oops oops SPY, D, Short ,
SPY: SPX - time to hedge portfolio
270 0 0
SPY, D Short
SPX - time to hedge portfolio

yet another warning sign, now action massive negative divergence accompanied by rising bearish wedge and now this reversal candle in my opinion we could retrace the big upmove since Nov, it won't be smooth and in rollercoaster waves. add shorts on the trendline break

oops oops USDJPY, D, Long ,
USDJPY: USDJPY missile
484 1 0
USDJPY, D Long
USDJPY missile

Fundamentals vs Technicals... here too FA was clearly written on every wall with BoJ in the printing room. TA is for timing of the execution... and I was waiting for my typical set up , which is tracking divergences. I was hoping for more correction, possibly 89-91 area , so I completely missed this missile shooting up while on holidays. in fact , I got even ...

oops oops EURJPY, D, Long ,
EURJPY: EURJPY missile
415 1 0
EURJPY, D Long
EURJPY missile

Fundamentals vs Technicals... FA was clearly written on every wall with BoJ in the printing room. TA is for timing of the execution... and I was waiting for my typical set up , which is tracking divergences. I was hoping for more correction, possibly 116 , so I completely missed this missile shooting up while on holidays. And here I won't chase longs, waiting for ...

oops oops GOLD, D, Long ,
GOLD: Randgold Resources - shiny again ?
366 0 0
GOLD, D Long
Randgold Resources - shiny again ?

low volatility (narrow Bollinger Band) hints for a consolidation but also a set up for future increasing volatility. We have had a good sell-off in Gold and of course this stock, but maybe found a bottom , which was accompanied with positive divergence, crossover of the MACD trigger line not out of the woods, but good enough for me for a long play. and ...

oops oops USDJPY, D, Short ,
USDJPY: USDJPY - bearish engulfing
827 5 2
USDJPY, D Short
USDJPY - bearish engulfing

that's a nasty candle we are witnessing. Under every other "normal" circumstances this whole picture would be regarded as SELL: a) great 5-waves rally b) losing momentum, negative divergence on the RSI c) 12% away from 200d SMA, so even only slightly revert to mean could be adoptable d) after negative divergence on the MACD, the trigger line has been crossed to ...

oops oops SPY, W, Short ,
SPY: SPY : BONDS - temporary swap ?
475 0 0
SPY, W Short
SPY : BONDS - temporary swap ?

yeah, great rally since the Mar2009 floor superb rally since summer 2011 correction (European Club Med crisis) healthy run since April 2012 splendid performance since mini correction Nov 2012 YES, the DOW30 produced an all-time-high and the media is shouting "the big rotation starting now from Bonds into Stocks" because historically stocks are "undervalued" ...

oops oops KC1!, W, Short ,
KC1!: COFFEE - getting cold
459 2 1
KC1!, W Short
COFFEE - getting cold

I am aware of the falling wedge accompanied with positive divergence and was long recently (and got stopped out) There is obviously more negative momentum in the very near time, hence shorts are probably the better options with stops running above the trendline. This wedge may not be completed, and targets are 120 handle. Eventually there will be a strong ...

oops oops SPX, D, Short ,
SPX: S&P short / VIX long - Hangover part 3
409 0 0
SPX, D Short
S&P short / VIX long - Hangover part 3

I traded this pair several times, here is another chance. Although we clearly have negative divergence and S&P is within this rising wedge, the only thing I dislike a little is the quite far away RSI trendline. But S&P looks toppish and VIX is again cheap. It is a rather short term counter trade

oops oops EURGBP, D, Short ,
EURGBP: EURGBP - sell uptics
166 0 0
EURGBP, D Short
EURGBP - sell uptics

we might be in a very short term consolidation since a few days, but the overall picture has clearly turned negative after the negative divergence followed by a distinctive break Even if this will be only a correction it has certainly got some legs targeting 0.84, possible 0.83 handle

oops oops EURUSD, D,
EURUSD: EURUSD - foot on the break
226 0 1
EURUSD, D
EURUSD - foot on the break

downside momentum slowing down with very light positive divergences temporary support here at 200d MA, time to take aggressive shorts off the book

oops oops DOWT, W, Short ,
DOWT: DOW Transport - buy the dip - WHAT DIP ?
314 0 2
DOWT, W Short
DOW Transport - buy the dip - WHAT DIP ?

"super bull market !" every day Bloomberg TV, CNBC, and god knows who is barking "ANOTHER ALL TIME HIGH" in this or that Index ... "Stocks are still cheap historically given the current average P/E" "compared to 10y Treasury yields , S&P div yld is more interesting" WELL, I was told to buy the dip then... WHAT DIP ???? Ok, RSI is only at 79.6%, STILL GOT LEGS TO ...

oops oops DJ1!, D, Short ,
DJ1!: DOW - and the "musical chairs" game
162 0 0
DJ1!, D Short
DOW - and the "musical chairs" game

what does it take ? what will be the "surprise" data or news ? what kind of mini black swan ? In "musical chairs" you have to be quick to get the chair, and the quickest to get the last one. I have to say I totally missed this spike, wondering if we had a possible broadening top then... obviously I was wrong. But we have all ingredients for a correction : - ...

oops oops EURGBP, D, Short ,
EURGBP: EURGBP short for correcion
574 3 5
EURGBP, D Short
EURGBP short for correcion

hiya, I noticed this rising wedge, which could lead to a correction soon. The doji candle yesterday was already not convincing itself and it didn't even make a new high in this recent bull run. Today (at least for now) the market created a big red candle, engulfing the bullish one 2 days ago. not great for bulls either. It just doesn't look right. The lower ...

oops oops AAPL, W, Long ,
AAPL: APPLE Panic ?
612 2 3
AAPL, W Long
APPLE Panic ?

bollox everyone who missed one of the greatest stock rallies in a decade called "sell, too high" all the way up... Contrarian will be always contrarian, no worries. Fundamentally one of the finest companies Silicon Valley has ever produced, but competition is charging and unfortunately the late visionary Steve Jobs is truly missed. Can Tim Cook produce something ...

oops oops ND1!, W, Short ,
ND1!: Nasdaq - lame duck ?
201 3 1
ND1!, W Short
Nasdaq - lame duck ?

I have noticed people are getting ready to pop their champagne when the DOW will hit all-time-highs soon, just shy away a few points (while forming a possible BROADENING TOP)... But studying the Nasdaq it appears to be forming a different pattern, a potential Head & Shoulder and this could be the right shoulder. I am aware H&S are very often pre-assumed and ...

oops oops KC1!, D, Long ,
KC1!: COFFEE - how would you like it ?
253 0 0
KC1!, D Long
COFFEE - how would you like it ?

...white please, no sugar ! As usual, early call, but I can't wait anymore. Humongous positive divergence accompanied with this falling wedge and - at least for the time being - seems to build a plateau. The last low did not penetrate the earlier one... and maybe .. just maybe... this could be it. Would be nice to have confirmation on trendline break and later ...

oops oops GBPUSD, D, Long ,
GBPUSD: GBPUSD - nobody loves me ?
628 3 2
GBPUSD, D Long
GBPUSD - nobody loves me ?

I know this looks like catching a falling knife But when someone has to try it, so I will try. There is no reversal pattern, no positive divergence and no support. It is just my hunch, Cable has fallen hard so far, almost in a straight steep line and has broken the previous 3-4 times supports. And most likely this will act as resistance, but with RSI really ...

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