We still have to see how it breaks. I quickly posted this while it was developing. Cup is finished, and handle is formed and I've begun to take positions. TP 3626.5
Keep in mind M2k (RUT) is also following a similar pattern but not as defined (obviously just following PSX), it ALSO is sitting on top a megaphone Could be fireworks
Since break it has been ranging, keeping an eye on this for long term short. While it could keep rallying, I just don't see it holding with pressure from a stabliing dollar. That said, not ready for active short yet
SPX had two big gaps, both filled over a manter two days (election day and day after) bouyed by an outlook that sees GOP holding Senate as an expected case. You know what happens after gaps get filled (both of which were in the wick by EOD). TP is 3200 - 3250 range for initial leg
DXY had a wedge going before the breakout two weeks ago, so if it doesn't break back in (93.47) also initial fib 0 , it will become a very strong support and go for another breakout, retest of 94.6 first, then 95.73 being the longer target.
Let's start with the bigger picture
In the weekly time frame, last week's low may have created local support at ~1478 that bulls can fall back to without losing their lunch, but if it goes, i'd be looking at a slip into the 1430's with a dip below that opening up the flood gates into the sub 1300s. If we do slip down, but...
It is going to be a long week for being a short 4-session week, that's all I'm very sure of.
The news could go either way:
Pending Home Sales (After Monday open)
Dallas Mfg Index (After Monday open)
Redbook/Chicago PMI (Before Tuesday open)
Not really news, but pensions rebalancing after a major equities rally could be essentially a large volume...
There is so much happening in over the last couple weeks that is shifting the overall trend to bearish with the RUT it's hard not to be short on it.
Just to get a couple of things out of the way:
It is damn near silly to think the RUT exists in a vacuum -- it is heavily led by the greater market trends and most especially the SPX. It almost never takes an...
Sorry, it's late and I'm tired but wanted to get this out, if for nothing else than to buildup some ideas and interesting things i've seen.
This is really an update of my idea a couple of days ago on the gap down being a flag than has simply been gap filled over than past week.
I'm seeing open gap down, lower than 3115, maybe (news/pump/asia dependent) we could...
The channel the RUT/RTY has been in for almost a week has failed to the downside.
It has falling down before for momentary spikes but now appears to be getting fairly solid resistance from the channel bottom. It should be an interesting night after a day of volume only-on-sell for the most part.
That said, keep your stops close cause we all know how it gets...
I see a good deal of posts on here, with legitimate observations predicting a bounce back up and break out up to ATHs. I don't agree, and I believe that these traders are missing out on a couple, very critical factors.
For the Week ending 6/19: ~3100 was max-pain for SPX option holders; notice how the futures kept jumping over ~3120 keeping it above SMAs and...
I suspect that the RUT futures will open to a pretty decent bullish trend up into the +1.5 - +1.75% range for the day (1400-1420ish) but then hit resistance and step down to maybe only a slight gain into the later night.
RUT futures tend to be VERY wicky in the open, so it may take a few tries to get a good position. More conservative entries could be in 1395...
The sentiment has fundamentally shifted. Bulls had a great run not having a care in the world and disregarding all possible negative outcomes, but the risk is sinking in now, and the price action shows just how fragile this Bull market really is.
IMHO, this does not mean flood gates opened, circuit breakers, etc. but we will start to have more pronounced bad days...