Head and shoulders is forming, and silver has completely broken down from trend. It looks like it will be all downhill from here. We'll have the classic up/downs with the occasional gap down.
Naysayers will be saying, but what about money printing, trade war problems, etc.. that's what I thought as well.
This market is not rational and chart has been damaged.. it...
I believe stock markets will push to ALL time highs, and squash gold in the process.
Ever since the REPO operations started the yield curves started to steepen.
The bond market was sending a strong signal something is wrong, and somehow they were able to reverse the trend. So far, I see a massive push to raise the yields, and it keeps working.
Naturally as bond...
Gold will continue to follow trend, as the "consolidation" has ended. I don't believe this was a consolidation at all, but simply a jump too far off from trend. We are now right back on the typical Gold trend of sustainable growth. My guess is that we will again jump off the trend, and will have to drop back down.
IF gold drops below trend, don't expect that to...
If we look at the Gold rally that started August 2018, we can see that the majority has been slightly below and above the trend line. This is a good indication that the rally is strong and will likely continue following the trend.
The economy is weakening each quarter. Trump's tariffs have done damage that lags behind and will only be materialized in numbers during the months to come. The FED's rate hikes have also done damage that is irreversible, and will begin to show soon.
The next FED meeting Dec 11 has a great chance of not cutting, which will further deteriorate the economy and...
If Friday's numbers come in weaker than expected, and I believe they have a big chance to disappoint, I expect to see Gold trading in the 1520-1530 range.
Currently 1510 is holding pretty well, and consolidation has been ongoing for some time. It is possible we may have seen the last of the 1500's
We could see a real breakout on Wed if the GDP disappoints in the morning.
The following 25bps cut, with about 90%+ chance, could go either way for gold. Stocks may rally on it, or it could be an indicator that a recession is coming and cause some gold buying.
Look for a breakout of this triangle to invalidate this pattern. Time range is end of Nov to mid Dec.
If the range keeps converging within the triangle a breakout to the upside or downside should be followed. A break on the downside could be big.
If the movement holds within the triangle, I expect a break to the downside at the end of Nov/Dec.
A break to the upside is also possible, although based on recent movements there is strong resistance to the upside.
Look for a break out of the triangle before the new year, that would invalidate this idea.