peterdcharlebois

peterdcharlebois Updated 

Hard to pick a direction on the Index right now. But some technical levels are presenting themselves.

peterdcharlebois Updated 

Well we now have a channel established. So I think the resistance will be the top of the channel. Still looking for a break below 4488. Major reversals don't always start with a bang. Sometimes it's just a few lower lows for a while and then all hell breaks loose. We will see.

peterdcharlebois Updated 

I've stopped trying to label the moves as the waves are unfolding in a somewhat choppy manner. However I still see the move as bearish as support doesn't come into play until the zone I've noted below. I still see 4488 as the ultimate longer term bearish point.

peterdcharlebois

I'm using 8 hour candles to trade and to stay in a trade. Staying in a trade is one of the most important lessons I have learned over the years. I love 8 hour candles as they represent the three major market sessions. It means I check on the chart just 3 times a day at precise times.

peterdcharlebois

With the unclear pattern in the SPX500 I'm going to lean back into my favourites, Currencies. I like the Ausie-Dollar at this level. I'll be looking for a renewed move up on the 8 hour candle chart I created. The only thing I don't like with this opportunity is the USD usually strengthens when the equities tank.

peterdcharlebois

Well it looks like the first move down was not quite complete and I have revised my count slightly. I still hold the same view. More downside without a retrace above 4700. If this move is going to continue and accelerate even more, then currencies will start to really get going as well. So I will likely change my focus and shift to there.

peterdcharlebois

This current pattern really fits the look of an impulsive pattern. And as it is to the downside I'm expecting a lot more to come without much retracement above 4700. I'm not entirely comfortable disclosing my potions of being Long or Short. So I won't. I think every trader has to make their own decisions based on many factors and their own analysis. Because every...

peterdcharlebois Updated 

At first when the index turned back upward I thought it would be a fast affair to the previous top. When it started to grind, I then thought it would still make the old top but would develop as a diagonal. It seems it's doing both now. The internal wave structure still looks like a series of 3 waves. So I'm expecting the result to be that it finishes it's form...

peterdcharlebois Updated 

The problem with Elliott Wave Theory like any other is it can be subjective. so no analysis should be taken on just one factor. So I wait for confirmation of a top by way of breaking a line in the sand at 4488. BUT: My sense here is that the move up is a true impulsive move that truncated. This means it ended short of a new top even though it was the final...

peterdcharlebois Updated 

Wave 4 is running a little long time-wise, but the shape is classic wave 4 in Elliott wave theory. It should thrust upward to the old highs from here. The question is will this be just a marginal new top and drop OR are we still going to see yet another meteoric rise to new highs. At this point I still view 4488 as the line between Bull and Bear.

peterdcharlebois Updated 

A push higher seems to be starting wave 5. If this is the case I think it will terminate around the old high. The pre-market hours on Sunday may be interesting as will Monday and Tuesday. I'm expecting a lot of action around the old high. A place to go short possibly if the reverse is dramatic. So far text-book EW. Let's see how this plays out now.

peterdcharlebois Updated 

The move appears to still be to the upside as I expected but not quite as rapid as anticipated. I'm thinking wave 4 ended at 4663.

peterdcharlebois Updated 

Well it's a slow grind but still seems to be upward. It could be an ending diagonal is forming. Only time will tell for sure.

peterdcharlebois

I've written most of the tutorial on the chart. Some will just call this a different form of a triangle. But I find this to be my favourite pattern of all and when they are clear, there is no doubt on the reversal They happen most often at the top of wave 3, because they form as a battle between Bulls and Bears. (or vise versa). I remember when I spotted my first...

peterdcharlebois

Oil has been recovering quite fast. A little too fast for my liking. But I would be looking for an entry to sell if a new hard turn such as an engulfing daily candle or long-wick reversal would emerge and provide a stop point. But as you can see I've labelled the chart with two counts and one calls for a new top before a larger drop. However, the upward tend-line...

peterdcharlebois

So far this is still working out as a textbook 5 wave up pattern with 4 forming now. Maybe wave 4 is complete. I'm waiting for a blow-off top to go short.

peterdcharlebois Updated 

Crude ha been recovering but is still trading outside its long term trend channel. So I wait and look for a clear sign of a new downward move in order to short. This can be done with CFD's if you broker has them or ETF's or options.

peterdcharlebois

This incredible thrust upward is not unusual for a final wave 5. Hence the name "Terminal Thrust". I'm thinking the current move will end with a double top around the old high. From there, a drop down below 4488, to me, would signal a new direction into a bear market. The next week or so will be very telling. And it should happen this fast as everything has been...