play_with_the_whales

play_with_the_whales

“History doesn't repeat itself, but It often rhymes.” (Mark Twain) IF this is the top, BTC perfectly hit the 0.618 fibonacci level again and if this is not immediately triggering a déjà-vu you probably simply weren't around back then ;) As mentioned in my previous update already I still think that Blackrock and co. will drive the price down to allow their...

play_with_the_whales

The closer we get to a spot bitcoin ETF approval (~2nd to 10th of January 2024) the more I think it will play out as a crypto typical "sell the news" event. I kind of think it's priced in already and the latest rally was 90% driven by this narrative. Please don't get me wrong, I'm sure BTC-ETFs will have a positive impact on price for all the obvious reasons, but...

play_with_the_whales Updated 

Let's make this really simple: Based on the weekly range the range low is at 25.937$ and #btc currently is trading below. Bulls need a daily close above that line in the sand otherwise it would increasingly look like a bearish retest pointing south. Weekly supports at 24.316$, 21.830$ and 19.291$. Monthly support at 23.300$. There's strong confluence around...

play_with_the_whales

Might as well be nothing, just indicators needing to adjust after the recent drop (17th of August). But I'm getting a little nervous 'cause it's taking longer than I expected initially so I thought I'll quickly share it here. IF BTC really resolves to the upside (see my bearish bias in the last update ) targets would be 27k and mid range at 28.139$.

play_with_the_whales Updated 

I'm expecting some kind of crash event before the 4th halving (currently expected for the 22nd of April 2024), similar to what we have seen back in 2020 with the 'covid crash' 9th of March. The market is weak, good news don't have a lasting effect and I expect BTC to leave the current trading range (~6 months) downwards sooner than later. I still think the...

play_with_the_whales

As mentioned in my previous idea this bounce looks weak to me, besides pa itself especially the super low Volume Oscillator on the 4h worries me. I'm adding to my shorts selling into every minor uptrend up to the mid of the range around 9500 that I don't expect we'll visit again before the dump. Please see the ascending triangle, a bullish formation that...

play_with_the_whales Updated 

After the failed break out of the range and a last bull attempt the bears are back in control and test the middle of the range on declining volume. I expect the range lows to be tested soon because I think the 9300 resistance is washed out and will not hold much longer after many touches in the last weeks. The arrows are roughly symbolizing my game plan. What...

play_with_the_whales Updated 

I'm observing this pattern for days already and think it will break down over the weekend. Target 9050 with wicks down to 8950 max.

play_with_the_whales Updated 

A lot of confluence close to a clear invalidation level is what you want to look for, so here we go: Longterm trendline at around 7800$ Sweet spot between 0.65 & 0.618 fib levels of recent move up. Monthly resistance at 7726$ 900$ Futures gap above Invalidation for me will be a daily close back below 7680$ / or 7500$ as last resort. P.S.: Keep in mind...

play_with_the_whales Updated 

Short stops were run, now the corn will retrace back to 8000$ and from there further south. Over all the whole dynamic is very bearish to me, no follow through, no real volume, 8000$ still is to expensive for most right now. Seems like everybody is chilling down at 7200$ and the last Futures gap...

play_with_the_whales

I think we might have topped out for the shortterm. Just wanted to share with you briefly this descending triangle I see forming on the LTF. Watch out, a descending triangle mostly forms as a continuation pattern in a downtrend. BTC is currently obviously in an uptrend so be prepared for breaks in both direction, but imo some shortterm downside is to be expected.

play_with_the_whales Updated 

Again? I think so. It won´t hurt to stack some offers down there to catch the wick, if it comes. Good luck!

play_with_the_whales

Ridiculously similar pa on almost the same level on the 1 hourly.

play_with_the_whales Updated 

I´m not shorting this against the overall trend, but if we don´t see the bulls coming out of the woods in the next 4h, I think we have some downside ahead of us. 7600 is the first relevant resistance where I want to see a good bounce, otherwise we might go south some more. --> I have my buys laddered in this area and am currently flat.

play_with_the_whales Updated 

While I still think it´s the most likely scenario that this pump is entirely fake, planned and executed by the big guys spending all their fucked USDT to buy up #btc, to exit the market with a monster drop on retail investors, this is what the chart tells me right now. I don't know if we will break upwards or test it multiple times and be rejected in the end,...

play_with_the_whales Updated 

Despite the latest bullish moves and news (short/ long ratio, short squeeze, USDT, bullwhale activity...) there´s a heavy resistance area in the making I want you to be aware of: 1. The long standing major resistance line (red) 2. A resistance area (7320-7720) with a lot of volume 3. Golden Pocket, twice shorted before (golden Pocket is the area between fib 0.65...