poppop6

poppop6

If we look at value vs growth you can see some striking similarities to the tech bubble back in 2000 . It may be different this time because of stimulus, but what if it isn't?

poppop6

Compare the two time periods from 1998-2002 I dare you to tell me this vix regime does not look nearly identical to the one then. If it follows pattern, we may see one last explosive move up in price and a spike down in vix to 18 or so and that's the top. Will be interesting to watch this play out

poppop6

Buy or is it Bye Bye?

poppop6

That's where I buy

poppop6

This is how I see this playing out.

poppop6

Odds are that the 20 year channel holds and you suffer the mother of all pullbacks at some point soon.

poppop6

The yield curve is steepening and moving above the danger level. As you can see back in late 1999's we had a hiccup in the spread which caused a sell off, but it corrected itself and market continued on. We had a similar hiccup this past year which caused a correction in the market and then it continued. This time it has continued despite the spread continuing...

poppop6

a similar 10X move takes us to 140 today. Possible, but I believe regulators step-in way before that happens. We will see.

poppop6

I think as long as this stays above support at 33.25 level we can see 42 then 47

poppop6

Massive deleveraging from record gross exposure by big money will likely continue. The robin hood small trader have changed the risk management paradigm. They will continue to de-risk as they figure out how to risk manage their positions in this new world.

poppop6

I think not.

poppop6

The answer is neither right now. longer term, I'll rake small caps from here if I had to make a choice.

poppop6

Why would you buy stocks here? Insane. Good luck with that.

poppop6

If so, this could be another quiver in the bearish camp

poppop6

bullish sentiment at extremes for stocks and pessimism at extreme bearish for bonds. Time to be contrarian again.

poppop6

That's the key. LT buying is insane at this level for stocks globally. Maybe ST you get a little more, but why risk it?

poppop6

This may drop if market drops but should drop less and rally more than spy if it does. If market goes higher this will eventually have to follow.

poppop6

If you compare this to the tech bubble the same thing is playing out. Money is flowing into iwm and specifically iwd. This does not mean that iwm or iwd will go up, just that it may drop less.