$DOW After a spike top reversal in May 2006 the Dow ended up retesting a prior major support/resistance zone.
If the market continues to weaken are we looking at retest of the 25000 - 24500 prior support/resistance level... Currently ~8% lower
UPDATE - Well almost 2 months later and the fractal off the 2009 low, extremely compressed from 1 month to 2 days, reached new highs with very similar indicator patterns.
Watching for the MACD to turn up and rsi to stay well elevated to confirm it's still following along the analog.
The 1.618 fib extension target is just above 4075 and eyeballing the timeframe I...
$SPX fractal similarities of our current rebound from March lows using a 2 day period and
the reversal off the 2009 low using a 1 month period. Looks like we are currently near the Sept. 2011 point...
Donchain Channels, 40ma, RSI, MACD
Fun Sunday morning puzzle... ;)
Some interesting data points to watch on the S&P500 ...
Weekly close with a 40 moving average
Since 2012 price has found support (and resistance) along the weekly 40 ma.
Monthly close with a 30 moving average
Up until the crash in March, the monthly 30 ma is where price settled for end of month closes greater than 15% corrections.
If yesterdays selling...
$SPX March 29 - Since the speed of the 2020 market decline below 30% was the quickest on record, I compared its 1 day time period next to the 1962 decline using 4 day time period... in effect speeding it up to a similar cadence.
Pulling back to the $SPX 3 month chart timeframe and I keep getting drawn to the 1962 crash, so I compared these multi year bull runs and subsequent quick selloffs.
At this higher timeframe... the two things that stand out to me are the very similar 86-87% gains over their respective multi year runs and and how 1962 under cut the '1960 low then reverses.
$SPX Monthly look at the decade long runs from their origins. 1974 - 1987 and 2009 - 2020.
And a fairly similar look of the how far the market had run up and fell in relation to the 50, 100 & 200 moving averages.
If the $SPX decade long long term monthly channel switching to one less steep... then it's possible lower trendline is around 8% lower in the general area of 2650.
Take Note - EVERY significant bottom made since 2009 has occurred with an RSI reading below 50% on the MONTHLY CLOSE.
Even though the current correction is larger than the previous two comparisons, it's currently just beneath the usual minimum 61.8%, which is similar to the others.
Weekly timeframe comparison of S&P 500
Fibonacci retracement levels from the previous 2 long term range breakouts in 2012 and 2016
40ma for reference
Trying to find a positive after this weeks...
NASDAQ:MSFT End of day close at daily uptrend support.
Intraday bounce off the broken upper trend line on the weekly.
Funny how sometimes these big moves gravitate to key trend lines. ;)
Watching to see how it reacts...
Top holding by weight percentage as of 02/03/2020
11.72% TESLA INC
Pulling away from a 2 year sideway range
Average Directional Index (ADX) bullish cross (weekly)
First target $64.70
Salesforce has twice before made strong 100% moves, after breaking of 2+ years of sideways range consolidations. These moves coincided with the $SPX breaking out higher in 2012 and late 2016.
Watching for a CRM monthly close above $165.35 and hold above that level for possible start of third run up. Another equal 100% move target would be just above $330.
Back on June 1st, I posted a chart noting the similarities of the two most recent periods of long and deep sideways price ranges and the behavior of the Williams %R indicator on a two week period.
The chart above is a look at where this comparison is presently...
In 2012 and 2016, price broke out to new highs then pulled back making what looked to be failed...
Similarities of current long term sideways range to the past two multi year sideways ranges (2012 & 2016) that eventually breakout with moves higher.
Watching to see if the 2 week Williams %R indicator reaches -50 and then price action shows signs of reversing...
Not a forecast.
Remain flexible and open to all possibilities...
While conducting my trend strength analysis of the $SPX on the weekly timeframe, I found myself going down the rabbit hole, as usual, of comparing larger (multi-weekly, monthly, multi-monthly) longer term timeframes. Though they do provide a broad perspective of large market dynamics in motion, their benefits are minimal, if any, to my swing trading. Thus I mostly...
In 2007 the price bounced around the monthly BB bottom. Looks like it could be doing the same, setting up for a spring bounce now that the all market participates are sure the place is going up in flames.
If the $SPX relentless steady march downward continues, let's put some possible targets. The long term channel that held in 2011 and 2016 points to a measured...