Listening to the news and twitter you know by now it's the end of the bull run, we're heading down, abandon ship! or is it... As noted in earlier post on Dec 8th, it took 4 weeks and 2 lower lows before the market abruptly turn course and charged higher. Price has finally reached the long term uptrend channel bottom.
At the start of 2016, over the course of 4 uncomfortable weeks, the market triggered what could be considered a maximum pressure Bull capitulation moment . Price made 2 lower lows below the Oct 2014 low from 15 months earlier . This likely caused many long term bulls to throw in the towel. Then promptly reversed triggering a major bear trap where price rose more...
Buckle up. With October in the books can the $QQQ scream higher into the end of year? Who would now expect higher highs... dare we say 200! ... stay nimble
Looks like $SPX tested the secondary line. Another 4% below that is the primary channel bottom just above 2500.
I noticed after last weeks air drop selloff, we could be seeing a similar sharp down/up price selloff to rebound, that the QQQs experienced in 2014. So upon closer inspection, the levels are quite similar, when looking at Fibs placed at the previous base range bottom to the pre peak selloff. Now the question... Is there a equal strength price vacuum above that...
29.12 Entry A high break of the flag has a measured move to 33 level. Needs an end of day close > 29.44.
Some positive price movement this morning has PayPal attempting to continue trending higher. Still long from early August.
UPDATE from earlier post . To date, this market analog has generally followed a similar path to that of the 1987 post crash wall of worry movement. If the market is going to carve out a wide range up trend channel then we could be at a medium term swing high and from here start an overall move downward to the lower channel line. Which would be around 2750-2700,...
146.27 Entry on 8/09 @ 3:53 2R target would be around the 50 daily moving ave.
Entry $49.33 on 8/8 at 11:15 Not convinced price has fully corrected, but it's a decent 2R trade setup. I can see price going beneath $48.50 low. Triggering a bear trap or price pushes lower.
Entered @ 52.41 on 8/3 at 11:25. Price has stalled... probably should have taken the 2R profit. If it fails from here will most likely retest my entry level.
104.93 Entry on 7/30 @ 12:43 Plan is to take 1/2 off just above 3R profit and see if the price can push higher into the end of summer.
Entered $129.12 on 8/6 @ 9:30 Decided to exit early $128.21 on 8/7 @3:57 because I didn't like how price couldn't retake the $130 level and seems to be forming a descending triangle... a close below $126 could start a mass run for the exit.
$84.7 Entry on 8/3 @ 11:53 add to position $85.78 8/6 3:43 Expect some sellers to appear above 89. Long term range breakout has a target of around a hundy.
Creeping higher along the upper channel line
A similar fibonacci measured move would foreshadow the QQQs will finish 2018 above 200 and it would mesh with the QQQ 2014 vs 2018 comparison I posted a few weeks ago. Long QQQ
If price continues to follow the 2014 move higher from here, based on the larger bull move comparison I posted last week, I wanted to put some price levels and approximate number of days to reach the Fibanocci levels I'm looking at. Long TQQQ This is not investment advice. Trading can be hazardous to your wealth.