Clear head and shoulder pattern forming on SPY. With the semiconductor earnings on the cards this month, that could be the catalyst that fuels us to the next bear market.
Target 1: 244 by May 1
Target 2: 263 by May 10
Target 3: 218 by May 30
Timelines may vary but I'm assuming we will retrace every significant highs and lows.
Nice clean rejections from kumo cloud resistance lines twice now on the daily chart. We may be headed lower here if the Tenken-San line (Blue line) curves back down.
Oil dump may be the catalyst for market movement this week?
Price action still undecided as long as price movement between 0.5 and 0.618 fib levels (278.56 and 292.93). Need a clean breaker either...
Ichimoku cloud resistance being tested on the daily. Also a big gap up near 278-282 area which may get filled Monday.
0.618 fib retracement level @ 292 also being tested possibly next week.
All in all still unclear on trend but we will be clear very soon. Bullish if clean break on ichimoku cloud resistance lines and 0.618 fib.
Still holding 5/15 puts and...
Doji on April 14, making top of crown (trend reversal). If tomorrow is not hugely green, we may have reached the top of bull trap and follow the crown curve to 264 and eventually to 246.
Keep in mind there is always the Fed and trump tweets to work against TA but all signs point to reversal.
Testing ichimoku cloud resistance April 15,16 as well. Tested 0.5 fib...
Looks like we have one of 3 possibilities that can occur:
1. Ascending channel - Look at lines 1 and 2 - Make a perfect ascending channel - the bull case - We tried to break below 275 multiple times today and weren't able to - not enough volume. We ended just below 0.5 fib after crossing it multiple times in the day. Hypothesis: The much-needed push and volume to...
Depending on when we open tomorrow, will decide trading range for daily calls/puts. If we open green, trading range - 285 to 293. If we break 293, close out all short positions and roll over into long calls. If open red, look for the 0.5 fib test and trade around it. Lower trading range - 271 to 279.
Assuming tomorrow opens <278 - we go down and test 265. Assuming we open green tomorrow (>278), we test 68% (292) this week. Short term trend undecided. If we beat 292 and break the cloud, we go up. Long term bearish. Weekly calls if we open green tomorrow otherwise weekly puts.