I've looked at the longterm charts of AMD to make the case that it's showing similar price action as previous bull markets and I would like to assume this bull market will end the same way. There is little to no upside for this stock which is a good reflection of how the semiconductors or tech will perform in the coming months.
Both these stocks are beneficiaries of the "stay at home" trend. As a result, they've gone parabolic, and appear to be in the distribution phase. Risk to reward for taking a short seems to be quite lucrative !
You can watch this in conjunction with my Lowe's trade posted below. Essentially they're a play on the same industry and overall market crash in dec; (they're price is strongly correlated to the general market). Choose whichever one works better for your risk management.
Like always, thanks for the constructive feedback
- I am seeing a 2 month long distribution phase in Lowe's, after which the stock has rolled over.
- I am predicting a very sharp move down in the month of December with the first target being the 130 demand zone and the 2nd target being the 100 demand zone.
- the 100 level is also showing support as the key trend line from the start of this bull market comes in at...
"Be fearful when others are greedy" - Warren Buffet.
More applicable now than ever !
I've looked at the put/ call ratio as well as VIX which reflect extreme greed and a broken market. This type of euphoria that "stocks can never go down" is only a belief of dumb money and a strong indication of a top.
In this video I've gone into more detail for the EURO stox, GDAX, UK and NIFTY. They're all showing potential signs of a turn around which indicates a turn around coming in the American markets as well.
In this part I have looked at the nasdaq, S&P 500, UK, EURO & GermanDAX.
nasdaq is showing distribution signs after a parabolic move to all time highs. This is a clear sign of a sharp reversal in the coming weeks.
S&P is seeming like a false breakout and/ or short squeeze on a very conveniently timed vaccine news.
Euro, UK & GDAX are at very critical supply...
1. I've used independent forms of analysis to show a ~14% downside to the ~240 level
2. I want to EMPHASIZE that this move will most likely be news based; i.e. "no one could've seen it coming" but the charts speak for themselves
Key concepts I talked about in this video are outlined below. I wish I could cover more concepts and go into more detail but had a 20min time limit for the video. Maybe I could make a part 2.
- false breakouts
- global indices showing topping patterns and breaking down
- FED balance sheet peaked in june 2020
- parabolic mania in tech stocks
- PUT/ CALL ratio...
I think the all time highs for these 2 stocks are behind us and they should only head lower from here. Ive observed a repeating pattern for both these stocks which tell me a trend change is forthcoming
In this video I've shown 3 independent forms of technical analysis that make a strong case that the top is already in for these 3 stocks ! In general, I'm bearish the overall market so wouldn't be surprised to see these correct significantly.
Let me know what you guys think ! Always open to comments and critiques.
Short idea is summarized as follows
1. stock has gone parabolic and these typically have aggressive corrections
2. robintrack shows sentiment is extremely optimistic so would like to make a contrarian bet
3. assuming a SZ 84-88 so taking a $4 risk and executing the trade via November PUTS. 80 strike
Here's a short video for any new traders who want to learn the basics of elliot wave analysis. I made this for a friend but thought I'd just post it on a public platform so it could help others as well.
Pardon the quality! I've never made a video before so shall continue to improve in the future :)
1. As can be seen VIX has once again formed a bullish wedge which is ready to breakout in the very near future
2. Another way to look at this is by combining the 2 wedges which is forming a triangle ( see attached line chart). This is also showing signs of a breakout.
3. 50d SMA for the PUT/ CALL ratio is at EXTREME...
Here's the trade setup
1. PG is in a supply zone denoted in the red colour
2. Earnings is in a couple days which makes for an easy catalyst to turn this around from all time highs
3. There's a triangle pattern formed over past 4 months (see attached link) and these tend to have aggressive breaks
4. I am bearish the general market so that should further support...