reluctantplumber

reluctantplumber

So when we examine this relationship closely its clear that SPX does not nessisarily follow the dictates of the inverted yield curve (2y / 10y). However, the general adherence to trends has clearly diverged in a big way. We can look back to January of 2023 and see a similar divergence where SPX finaly reacted with a violent move down into March of 2023. I think we...

reluctantplumber

So I think we all understand that the ship has changed course. Fed comments yesterday caused some real margin calls. Lots of folks on the wrong side of that one. Lay either of these charts against the S&P and I think its plain to see we are ready for a pullback soon.

reluctantplumber

It's been a great trade so far, same senario for the miners. Lock in half - move up the stops

reluctantplumber Updated 

Starting to see this image a little more often throughout the media I follow. However if its a real pattern the handle has not been formed yet. Weekly and Quarterly expected moves in orange. Trade Safe!

reluctantplumber Updated 

I'm very wary of the mag 7 as the valuations are still way too high imo, however when I look at the RUT or RSP equal weight I see real value. Here is a quick volume profile measure from the September 22' low, notice how close we came to the 8/1 Gann line also pulled from the 22' low. I think real long term investors are stepping here. Surley the Fed has finished...

reluctantplumber

I know this monthly chart is a bit tough to see the detail, but if you look at the daily SLV chart you will find an inverse H&S which is breaking out. The measured move on the daily IH&S actually takes us through the breakout of the Weekly Inverse H&S that I'm showing on this monthly chart. Get yer pop-corn ready...

reluctantplumber

Maybe we do get one more .25 out of this cycle, but surley the pause follows. The bottom of the markets shall be determined by earnings now...

reluctantplumber

I'm waiting for price to cross over the 5 day ema for gold long entry

reluctantplumber

Going back to the last FOMO flush out in mid September, look at the volume profile from there forward - confluence with the Bear trend line retest and the 2/1 Gann pulled from the October low. Turns me bearish. Lots of support to get through but I think its a strong possibility we see sub 3900 by mid march. Interesting, that purple line resistance extends all the...

reluctantplumber

Fed funds rate crossing above the 2 and 10 year yield(s) can give us a pretty good idea...

reluctantplumber

When we see the Fed funds rate "Green" Surpass both the 2 year and 10 year yield we can expect to see a pause or cutting - when we see the the Fed funds rate being lowered is when the next market downturn happens

reluctantplumber Updated 

It's unloved, forgotten and even berated as a barbaric relic. I like underdogs, however it really all depends on how quickly the Fed can get inflation back in line without destroying the economy. Seems to me Jay has a tough line to walk. I'll be wading in on Gold a little deeper for awhile. Good investing to you!

reluctantplumber

Still playing the NQ, but taking a bit off today. Needs to hold that 2/1 line or further decline is likely.

reluctantplumber

Just looking at the NQ, even in the worst days of the unknown back in the first quarter the selling only lasted for about five weeks. We are in week four of this latest correction. I will begin buying in here, however I think NQ 10K is a distinct possibility.

reluctantplumber

I have never been a fan of shorting Gold, but I do think its going to be a bit boring for awhile, look elsewhere for excitement for now...

reluctantplumber

A horrendous week in the markets to be sure, fear is a powerful driver. Be greedy when others are fearful, buy into weakness and sell into strength. If you are a long term investor this is the time where you start adding to your favorites. It can be very hard to go against this type of momentum, but if you are buying quality then time is on your side. Im adding...

reluctantplumber

I am no PHD, but all limited information I can gather at the moment tells me that the coronavirus could be a bigger player than we are prepared to admit. Let's hope the unprecedented actions taken by China are effective in removing this threat. Watch it closely - if the measures were not successful we will see a doubling of new cases each week. We will know the...

reluctantplumber

The market has become quick to price news events and likely has done the same with the trade deal signing. Q4 earnings may also bring some pressure as the S&P is running hot on multiples. Defense is warranted.