reluctantplumber

reluctantplumber Pro

Maybe we do get one more .25 out of this cycle, but surley the pause follows. The bottom of the markets shall be determined by earnings now...

reluctantplumber Pro

I'm waiting for price to cross over the 5 day ema for gold long entry

reluctantplumber Pro

Going back to the last FOMO flush out in mid September, look at the volume profile from there forward - confluence with the Bear trend line retest and the 2/1 Gann pulled from the October low. Turns me bearish. Lots of support to get through but I think its a strong possibility we see sub 3900 by mid march. Interesting, that purple line resistance extends all the...

reluctantplumber Pro

Fed funds rate crossing above the 2 and 10 year yield(s) can give us a pretty good idea...

reluctantplumber Pro

When we see the Fed funds rate "Green" Surpass both the 2 year and 10 year yield we can expect to see a pause or cutting - when we see the the Fed funds rate being lowered is when the next market downturn happens

reluctantplumber Pro Updated 

It's unloved, forgotten and even berated as a barbaric relic. I like underdogs, however it really all depends on how quickly the Fed can get inflation back in line without destroying the economy. Seems to me Jay has a tough line to walk. I'll be wading in on Gold a little deeper for awhile. Good investing to you!

reluctantplumber Pro

Still playing the NQ, but taking a bit off today. Needs to hold that 2/1 line or further decline is likely.

reluctantplumber Pro

Just looking at the NQ, even in the worst days of the unknown back in the first quarter the selling only lasted for about five weeks. We are in week four of this latest correction. I will begin buying in here, however I think NQ 10K is a distinct possibility.

reluctantplumber Pro

I have never been a fan of shorting Gold, but I do think its going to be a bit boring for awhile, look elsewhere for excitement for now...

reluctantplumber Pro

A horrendous week in the markets to be sure, fear is a powerful driver. Be greedy when others are fearful, buy into weakness and sell into strength. If you are a long term investor this is the time where you start adding to your favorites. It can be very hard to go against this type of momentum, but if you are buying quality then time is on your side. Im adding...

reluctantplumber Pro

I am no PHD, but all limited information I can gather at the moment tells me that the coronavirus could be a bigger player than we are prepared to admit. Let's hope the unprecedented actions taken by China are effective in removing this threat. Watch it closely - if the measures were not successful we will see a doubling of new cases each week. We will know the...

reluctantplumber Pro

The market has become quick to price news events and likely has done the same with the trade deal signing. Q4 earnings may also bring some pressure as the S&P is running hot on multiples. Defense is warranted.

reluctantplumber Pro

LPI has alot of debt but they are in process of moving the maturity out a little further. Any further escalations with Iran could provide some spill over up-side here. This is for your day play high risk monies only. Lets see if price can defeat and hold the current resistance before trying a long...

reluctantplumber Pro

So I know I have been a bit of a killjoy on Gold lately, but the dollar is looking like it may want to fall from grace for at least awhile. I think if dollar loses this channel we could see an extended run for Gold. My only concern, what in the world can crush the dollar right now?

reluctantplumber Pro Updated 

So its been another amazing run for the indexes (I have particularly enjoyed the RUT) but the VIX is not going to zero. Time to start thinking defense, the markets only need an excuse to get bearish. The December 15 Tariff deadline could be just what is needed to send the VIX back to the cloud. Gold might be a good one here with low leverage, its been holding up...

reluctantplumber Pro

So the worst case scenario is that Gold gets beat to death while the yield rises and best case, it holds its ground in the 1300's - Not to say the yield makes it to 3% anytime soon but waiting for Gold to move higher may prove more than most can take.

reluctantplumber Pro

Not much to say about it other than I think DJI will fair better than SPX and NASDAQ. However DJI will sell off further than many think in the first half of October.

reluctantplumber Pro

On October 1st of 2007 the S&P 500 had reached a new all time high. Then began a 518 day plunge that would be known as the great recession of 2008. 3,837 days later in September of 2019, the S&P 500 would reach another all time high. This one over 353% higher than that terrible bottom. Gold had already began a multi year up-trend before the beginning of the great...