ronfkingswanson

ronfkingswanson

After a straight descent from a plateau that can hardly be read as "organic", and breaking through every conceivable historical support, it appears that we are seeing a strong shift in the price action, starting a new movement to break out of this 16-day channel. EMA's that haven't crossed up since the top of the channel are finally crossing. But most notably, the...

ronfkingswanson

Gox has made a race for the bottom, thanks to the halted BTC withdrawals. This has created an enormous stuck arbitrage opportunity, and decoupled the price on Gox from all other exchanges. The upside, however, is that Gox has very likely completed its plunge, as will be confirmed by a third daily candle near 310. In closer periods, you can see the multiple bounces...

ronfkingswanson

***UPDATE*** it check out the chart I posted in the comments we've now gone all the way to touch the 500EMA - something that hasn't happened in exactly two years! ------------ Looking back to the April 2013 rally, we saw the first deep pullback reaching to touch the 100 EMA line, then over months as the bubble corrected more slowly, a final touch of the 300...

ronfkingswanson

The same trajectory from before and after the "flashcrash" is still in effect. Touches, rallies, pullbacks, reversals all happening right along standard pitchfork trendlines. But all patterns must eventually end... A look at the 4H chart showing the long sideways since the peak Jan 6th shows a gentle decline collapsing into a steep one. Yes, a rally is expected,...

ronfkingswanson

So after staying up all night through the Feb. 10th flash crash (thank you Mt. Gox), I've maybe got a few brain cells left. I was charting this same downward pitchfork leading up to the dump, and amazingly we seem to have bounced right back up into it, as if nothing ever happened (like momentary $102 coins). But the trend is still holding perfectly, declining at...

ronfkingswanson

The last deep leg down was the result of strong selling on Gox, which spooked all others when combined with the recent news of BTC withdrawals being stopped over the weekend while some internal accounting with stuck transactions and the like got sorted out. An update on the issue was announced for Monday Feb 10th (Japan), so we could possibly hear something at any...

ronfkingswanson

A sudden torrent of activity on Gox, after weeks of negligible volume, has smash through the sideways supports to new bear territory. But a quick check of RSI going back to October 2013 shows this concerted selloff has resulted in lower RSI values than existed during any of the much larger selloffs through the November rally. We haven't seen RSI this low since the...

ronfkingswanson

A scenario that contains both the short-term bullish upwards wave projection of @DanV and others, as well as the longer-term bearish corrections to follow. Such upper targets would be expected to touch the 50% channel before reversing and likely crossing the mean.

ronfkingswanson

For over two weeks now we've watched the price attempt to breakout from the initial 50% consolidation after the deep selloff, but none of the rallies in either direction have broken decisively away, so the price continues to consolidate around the original mean. I've left the many horizontal support/resistance levels off this chart (you can see them easily on my...

ronfkingswanson

Despite the broad interpretation of the past weeks as nothing more than a descending triangle (understood to be a bearish signal), the price action has clearly left the consolidation phase and a new rally is underway. The old bull channel trend lines from weeks before are still visible in the incline of even the small rallies within this consolidation phase. But...

ronfkingswanson

It can be helpful to zoom out and look at the general bias or "slant" of a consolidation phase (a period immediately following a large/steep spike or selloff. Such dramatic movements are typically followed by the market's attempt to establish the "new normal". This is often charted with the 50% retracement to find that zone of consolidation. But here I just wanted...

ronfkingswanson

Yes, market conditions are different right now than during the bubble selloffs in waves of bad china news, but this matching pattern, in the exact same price range, has got the hairs on the back of my neck standing up. As kooky as it sounds, even the upcoming full moon on Jan. 15th is showing up *exactly* in the same place as the previous triangle -- right at...

ronfkingswanson

Bouncing between the 0.618 and 0.764 fib lines in almost the same period and formation, briefly exploring past 0.764 before bouncing along again. Key moment to notice here is the last breach of 0.618 before the selloff. Doesn't mean we'll see the same vertical drop, as bad china news dominated the bubble selloffs, but we are right on the edge of long-term bear territory.

ronfkingswanson

Fibonacci retracement of the entire bubble, from all time high to lowest bounce, shows a very strong trend along the 0.618 line, both during the bubble and now again during the recent weeks-long bull channel rise. Many declines bounced off it and now rallies have started right from it. Thus it's likely the next fib line at 0.764 might play a part in the upcoming...

ronfkingswanson

Consolidation is proceeding perfectly along the 50% retracement. The next two possible moves are pretty clear - but the bullish one would be a continuation of the trend that has existed since the bubble bottom. If the bear scenario plays out, there is really no way to remain in this trend any longer, which should be seen as a more serious, deep, and longer-term...

ronfkingswanson

In steep selloff movements, once a bottom bounce has been established, an attempt is made to consolidate around the 50% retracement. In a stable pattern, the oscillations should narrow around that range, eventually flattening sideways to indicate consensus about the new floor. A very strong signal of failure to consolidate will be seen if the current oscillations...

ronfkingswanson

After peaking right at the upper wedge trendline, LTC (and BTC) have pulled back for consolidation, with a lot of nervous sentiment from yet another steep rally. Expectations of a final reversal are common, but so are projections of another attempt at the all time high. With no dominant indicator, neutral news period, and no panic sell busting support lines on the...

ronfkingswanson

As BTC continues its rally, LTC has floundered for days since the failed #3 pump, seemingly for lack of sufficient buy volume, despite the bullishness in BTC, which it usually tracks closely. But the divergence has created an apparent buying opportunity as LTC appears to be attempting to snap back to its previous track, closing the gap with BTC. Previous high...