rwoods187

rwoods187

This chart is crude and only correlates most of the time, but it does stand to reason based on the macro outlook we are staring down the barrel of a sizeable market crash. Now the 3 lines were 2 years after the red circles. That means the bottom is likely at the end of 2023 to 2024. The best way to play this is cash, but deflationary bets might also work. Use...

rwoods187 Updated 

I know the inflation trade has been discussed and is possibly over, but CORN has been consolidating with higher lows and lower highs. If the trade is not over we could see a breakout to 780$. This is a hedge trade, corn has a lot of moving parts and the three biggest right now being demand for livestock, ethanol blending, and droughts. If traffic is picking up and...

rwoods187 Updated 

As seen in the past, the crack spread is about to roll over for the summer months until the fall shutdowns start again. How this plays out in the equities like $HFC is yet to be seen.

rwoods187

You can see the TTRE softening and likely to roll over in 2023 to be a buyers market. Charted below is the two major 5-year fixed rate expiring terms. (They are roughly ~2 years apart) Keep this in mind when buying or selling. To better time the market so much as you can?

rwoods187

I used the TTRE/CA05 to show the likely outcome of where we are vs where we are going. Likely a "bear" market for Canada in 2023. As much as there can be one. I would prefer to call it a buyers market more so than the usual sellers market Canucks are so used to. The chart clearly shows the two 5-year fixed-rate cycles roughly 2-3 years apart.

rwoods187

Here is an interesting comparison of the 3 charts. If the history of these charts has taught us anything, there is going to be a rise in rates on a real rate basis more so than actual rates. What is more interesting is how this real rate rise will influence gold prices. Now gold isn't bitcoin, they are the exact opposite things. One is front-loaded with energy and...

rwoods187

Few understand the diminishing returns of artificially created markets. This chart shows why the 60/40 or 70/30 should be replaced with something more contemporary. 50/20/20/10 portfolio Equities/gold/bitcoin&ETH/cash. In a world where more manipulation will create more volatility. People need the option to buy dips, sell rips, and realize the CBs have no way...

rwoods187 Updated 

Looking at the chart, lower highs and lower lows. With that said, hurricane season is around the corner, and the 330k bpd plant in Phili just went up in flames. They lost their Alky unit which produces a boat load of gasoline. I would gamble on this spread in the near term, but have a small position. The reason being the economy is slowing and less gasoline might...

rwoods187

This is the winner of the airline wars for stock picking. Expecting a big hit with earnings this quarter given the US domestic travel this year. Its adding routes back fast and expanding international travel.

rwoods187

It's hard to gauge what 1.9T can do to an index, but I think we roll over here after the stimulus. A fail run to a lower high and a slope down. Institutional will rotate as they have been to lower P/E like "value" energy, high beta, etc. Just a thesis. 1.9T can change a lot of factors.

rwoods187

Just a theory of how BTC will move.

rwoods187

HS building with a good tech macro backdrop. Semis as a whole is an overall hot market.

rwoods187

How many times does gold need to offer a buy the dip moment? Remember it is the contrary play to the money printer. Gold here works fundamentally. Either the US fed prints and gold wins, or we say deflation and gold wins. Gold is a currency, so risk manage accordingly.

rwoods187

A triangle consolidation present. I see a nice break out coming. I would adjust selling puts OTM to NTM or ITM. Also spice up the portfolio with some 31$-40$ Jan monthly call debit spreads.

rwoods187

A great buying day. I do think we may see a limit down in the next few weeks, but that should stop you from buying the dip today to sell tomorrow.

rwoods187

Macro>Micro>TA Macro - Gold and Silver are macro positive right now in the stagflation trade Micro - The company has massive amounts of silver and gold at low grade but at the current gold price and soon to be silver price it is cheap. T/A - a triangle is forming off the last run. lower highs and higher lows. This stock had a pop from sharing a name with...

rwoods187

Gold is trading sideways and the gold volatility has normalized. <15 on the GVZ. Expect a little more consolidation, but the pressure is building. End of the month short contracts will need to be exited.

rwoods187

Another lower high and BTC continues to prove it chases the NASDAQ and underperforms it. Triangle is broken. Expect a sharp move to the downside coming.