Let's start by acknowledging that over the past several years there ALWAYS seemed to be a crash just around the corner. Meanwhile, the SnP500 keeps marching up and everyone who was right about the fundamentals are left with a glass of Disbelief on the FOMO rocks.
Follow the Money
If we compare the recent Commitment of Traders futures report to the historical...
Something inTERe$tiNg is unfolding and you heard it here first. It involves the dollar, gold, and... drum roll...
...the W r e c k i n g B a l l
I'll save that one for last. Like any good thesis, it will evolve as new data comes in.
For now let's look at some data.
We can see from the Commitment of Traders report that both Asset Managers and Leveraged...
Taking a look at the weekly progress of multiple correlated markets and updated price targets: Bitcoin, Gold, Silver, USD, S&P500
Excluding the March mayhem deviation in price, weeks ago there were hints of a parabolic trend starting to develop.
The breakout of a macro downtrend and weekly candle close above it...
Let's dive deep and take another look at what is playing out across the board in the SnP500, Bitcoin, Gold, Silver, and DXY.
No matter how much we think we know, the Market continues to demonstrate it is nothing more than a natural phenomenon bound by Fibonacci patterns. If we start paying attention we find that circumstances that drive the news mean nothing....
Don't get excited just yet. The only certainty in the oil game is it's not for the faint of heart and right now, the bears are getting crushed.
Now that prices are gearing up it looks like it's time to make a new plan. Before I do let's recap the last one.
Previously I had noticed a particular trendline that prices broke out of in early August. As that breakout...
Today I will share something priceless.
As we dig and dig through the multiverse of guesses from speculators and analysts, we uncover the truth. There is always a call, simultaneously, for a bullish and a bearish scenario to play out. To make matters worse, there are also calls for "bull/bear traps" every step of the way. On top of THAT, there are instances...
Old trendline is still in play and might lead to more chop sideways, possibly forming a pennant.
The dark blue 200 week EMA is likely as far as it goes if it breaks out.
Keep in mind this dollar index is more about the Euro and Yen rather than the actual broad dollar index which is still where it was in the beginning of the year....
Natural Gas continues to show a build up of bullish price action.
Linked below is a previous analysis on the winter contracts showing the target hit DEAD on. Being that winter is not here yet, it's very possible this pattern continues to play out to the upside.
The most recent weather outlook now points to December being the coldest month which means...
Time to start looking for another spooky Halloween trade as the latter half of October brings in cold temps.
Prices are now sitting near historically supportive levels and bullishly above the 200 week EMA, with the 50 curling up.
A closer look at the 4hr chart shows prices are coiling up with the RSI in buying territory....
The Euro/Dollar is signaling something significant on the MACRO level. I'll link the YouTube series that explains it in comments.
The recent technical breakout indicates where the next stop is and there are several ways to take advantage outside the FX market.
From a technical standpoint it appears the trajectory of the U.S. Dollar is heading towards 85 at the...
Gold is zooming.
As we can see on the monthly DXY chart, the developing pattern parallels history.
1. It bounced off the 200 EMA
2. It broke trend, retested, and failed
3. It collapsed
The RSI and MACD are weak
What happened to Gold last time DXY collapsed?
The NASDAQ has had quite the run up since March and many investors are looking for the opportunity to buy. This most recent pullback at first appears to be a buying opportunity however, the RSI is flashing warning signals. Patience will pay off.
This RSI divergence on the daily chart indicates the strength of this bullish trend has been...
Oil prices should offer some nice opportunities to create some green days in the near future. Calling the bottom is difficult however, it should be a fairly safe trade once it closes above the macro fib level, 50/200 Day EMA, and this down trend line. Clearing these levels could mean that Bill Gates will have a vaccine for us soon or the Dollar Index is falling...
The big question is what is going on with Nat Gas this year???
The December(Z) contract is still coiling up in a wedge pattern and about to reveal the answer.
A closer look at the bullish scenario...
It's looking technically hopeful with the 200 Week EMA, $3.00 level, and the bottom of the wedge all lining up.
- The Fibonacci Extension from the previous bull run should continue to be the frame for Gold's price action moving forward.
- OBV (On Balance Volume) on the macro level is trending upward indicating that the buying pressure outweighs selling pressure.
- OBV on the 4hr chart shows the recent sell off has corrected back...
Today the November(X) contract for Natural Gas corrected down to the historically significant $2.50 level. Going back a couple years it is clear that prices tend to hangout above $2.75 so right now prices are undervalued.
+1 @ $2.53
Getting ready for some excellent buy opportunities in the coming weeks. It goes without saying that the 50 and 200 Week EMA offer impenetrable support.
V o l u m e, in addition to EMAs, mark the key levels to watch for a bounce. Closing above a high volume level is a buy!
Everything is responding to movement in the DXY so it's a good idea to be watching for a few things to play out.
Nothing has really changed but technically, DXY is oversold so take caution on a breakout.
A false break out and failure at EMA however, would be an excellllllent buying opportunity for all sectors listed.
Target below 91.37 ish happens to be a trend...