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shawnsyx68
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$spy $qqq vs $iwm Sell QQQ
QQQ
, 1D
QQQ: $spy $qqq vs $iwm Sell QQQ

See comments in chart. QQQ is a sell on outright basis and vs IWM long if you want to do a spread trade. Long IWM vs Short QQQ

$spy $tlt What happens over long-term?
MULTPL/SP500_DIV_YIELD_MONTH
, D
MULTPL/SP500_DIV_YIELD_MONTH: $spy $tlt What happens over long-term?

If rates stay competative vs stocks yields, what will investors do with an overvalued market?

$spy $smh $qqq Bear market bounce?
SMH
, 1W
SMH: $spy $smh $qqq Bear market bounce?

Looks like a very critical point for semi's right here. Failure is not an option.

$spy $xlf Failed breakout
XLF
, 1D
XLF: $spy $xlf Failed breakout

From failed moves come fast moves in opposite direction. As financials go, so go the rest of the market....eventually

$spy $dxy Do you stay short?
DXY
, 1W
DXY: $spy $dxy Do you stay short?

Should this be a high conviction short? I don't think so, could see a face ripper pretty soon.

$spy $dxy Could it be like this? Falling wedge
DXY
, 1D
DXY: $spy $dxy Could it be like this? Falling wedge

If so, then dollar is due for some serious mean reversion. STocks are in trouble if that's the case.

$spy $dax too far too fast Ooops moment
DEU40
, 1D
DEU40: $spy $dax too far too fast Ooops moment

STocks rallied on false hopes of easing rates. time for some mean reversion

$spy $tlt What you should fear is the yld curve reverting
DGS30
, 1W
DGS30: $spy $tlt What you should fear is the yld curve reverting

Back to normal. That is the signal that the FED has eff'ed things up and a major earnings recession is coming. Think 200X15 on s&p500

$spy $iwm could it be like this? Bear Market Rally
IWM
, 1W
IWM: $spy $iwm could it be like this? Bear Market Rally

You better hope not. watch out below. Could take a long to to BEAR out LOL

$spy $tlt It's not the inversion that kills the market
DGS10
, 1W
DGS10: $spy $tlt It's not the inversion that kills the market

It's when it normalizes you better watch out. I think we've put in a generational top and we go lower. Can't rule out a continued rally as the state of inversion can last a while.

Long $tlt vs short $lqd or $jnk Seems logical to me
TLT
, 1D
TLT: Long $tlt vs short $lqd or $jnk Seems logical to me

Rates are backing up again on the false presumption that the economy is ok and that FED will keep raising rates to combat inflation. I believe a global recession is all but certain at this point. Plus, if China opens back up and inflation is pushed higher it is more likely priced in on treasuries and the impact not fully priced in for corporate bonds or junk. ...

$spy $qqq The Great Inflation Crisis of 2022 It ain't over yet
QQQ
, 1WShort
QQQ: $spy $qqq The Great Inflation Crisis of 2022 It ain't over yet

More downside coming if this is even close to the GFC of 2008.

$spy $qqq $smh A major artery has been cut
SMH
, 1D
SMH: $spy $qqq $smh A major artery has been cut

Down side target from H&S top is 179 which coincides with the .618 retracement from march 20 low to high. See you there soon.

$spy $tlt $lqd Time to get long Bonds? I think so
TLT
, 1DLong
TLT: $spy $tlt $lqd Time to get long Bonds? I think so

We have a bullish engulfing pattern and a diverging RSI signal. Recession is coming time to be long bonds I think. Contrarian signal as well. Nobody wants bonds

$spy $tlt $fedfunds What do you think breaks the system
TRJEFFCRB
, 1W
TRJEFFCRB: $spy $tlt $fedfunds What do you think breaks the system

What rate breaks the system? 1.5, 2, 2.5 percent? They have to push it to 2.50 or what little credibility they have will be lost.

$spy $tlt I reiterate this call sell stocks on rip buy bonds
SPY
, 1W
SPY: $spy $tlt I reiterate this call sell stocks on rip buy bonds

sell spy on a rip, buy bonds on this dip market has mostly priced the fed's moves in now. Outliers are higher rate rises than expected

$spy $tlt $lqd Time to buy some investment grade bonds
LQD
, 1W
LQD: $spy $tlt $lqd Time to buy some investment grade bonds

They are at their highest relative yield vs stocks in decades @ 2.71% and sitting on huge support. Stocks are still a short on any rally

$spy $tlt $crb Nearing a top
TRJEFFCRB
, 1W
TRJEFFCRB: $spy $tlt $crb Nearing a top

It could get uglier for stocks here if we continue higher on commodities.

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