See comments in chart. QQQ is a sell on outright basis and vs IWM long if you want to do a spread trade. Long IWM vs Short QQQ
If rates stay competative vs stocks yields, what will investors do with an overvalued market?
Looks like a very critical point for semi's right here. Failure is not an option.
From failed moves come fast moves in opposite direction. As financials go, so go the rest of the market....eventually
Should this be a high conviction short? I don't think so, could see a face ripper pretty soon.
If so, then dollar is due for some serious mean reversion. STocks are in trouble if that's the case.
STocks rallied on false hopes of easing rates. time for some mean reversion
Back to normal. That is the signal that the FED has eff'ed things up and a major earnings recession is coming. Think 200X15 on s&p500
You better hope not. watch out below. Could take a long to to BEAR out LOL
It's when it normalizes you better watch out. I think we've put in a generational top and we go lower. Can't rule out a continued rally as the state of inversion can last a while.
Rates are backing up again on the false presumption that the economy is ok and that FED will keep raising rates to combat inflation. I believe a global recession is all but certain at this point. Plus, if China opens back up and inflation is pushed higher it is more likely priced in on treasuries and the impact not fully priced in for corporate bonds or junk. ...
More downside coming if this is even close to the GFC of 2008.
Down side target from H&S top is 179 which coincides with the .618 retracement from march 20 low to high. See you there soon.
We have a bullish engulfing pattern and a diverging RSI signal. Recession is coming time to be long bonds I think. Contrarian signal as well. Nobody wants bonds
What rate breaks the system? 1.5, 2, 2.5 percent? They have to push it to 2.50 or what little credibility they have will be lost.
sell spy on a rip, buy bonds on this dip market has mostly priced the fed's moves in now. Outliers are higher rate rises than expected
They are at their highest relative yield vs stocks in decades @ 2.71% and sitting on huge support. Stocks are still a short on any rally
It could get uglier for stocks here if we continue higher on commodities.