As I eluded to in my past trading ideas, the VIX is currently trading at levels which to me are surreally low. This is great entry for a long position for calls with strikes in the range of $13 to $15. The market (as the vol is currently priced) is taking volatility too casually and therefore ignoring the possibility of potential sharp market moves in a big way....
I am very bearish the SPX. Let me list some of my arguments below:
a. We have seen a massive and rapid run up in recent weeks (on top of an already long and 'hated' bull market).
b. The VIX (at 14 while i am typing this post) is really at a level that shows a level of complacency about this bull run. The highest it has been this year so far is 15! The last...
Not the smoothest cup & handle pattern! But it appears that there is a potential handle forming on the 1 hr USD/JPY. Price target 108.80 intraday (next couple of hrs).
This is not a pattern I use much and I am not sure how well it is going to play out here, but its worth watching.
The DXY daily chart is approaching the last leg of a descending triangle pattern which is a bearish signal. Look out for a shorting opportunity if it breaks below 99.30 which has been a pretty solid support level.
The Turkish referendum appears to have favored Erdogan. While the political implications of this are still to be seen, this appears to be short term bullish for the Turkish Lira. I would go short the USD/TRY with a target of 3.6000 and a stop loss of 3.7500
I expect TSLA to go to 285 range and then ultimately form a H&S pattern (offering up a wide range of trading opportunities in the short to medium term). I am long term bearish on this stock given the well documented execution and valuation issues.
Additionally, it is important to understand that as the Fed begins to tighten and the "free/cheap money" well dries...
I see further upside in BPCL, with immediate resistance at 725.The best way to play this would be to be long slightly OTM call options. Given the sort of move we have seen over the last 2 trading sessions, and the overall trend prior to that, it does appear that the probability of it breaking through 725 are pretty good.
I am expecting a quick move past 30,000 when the market opens on Monday. The correction on Friday was too rapid and I am expecting a pullback which should break through the 30k level. And if this does hold true we are in for a massive up move on the SENSEX as I believe "animal spirits" will take over past the psychologically critical 30k level.
To give you some...
I see an opportunity to go long the US Dollar Index (DXY) at current levels. There has been a steady up tick and with economic data due this week from majors like Japan and Britain, it should make for an interesting week for the USD.
That said, there is an immediate resistance at 102, which has been tested 4 times since the beginning of March, so even a mildly...
NIFTY after a very strong run post breaking 8300 is now in overbought territory. It also has hit significant resistance at 8800. This is a good set up to go short. I would play it by buying 8700 puts. Target 8550.
The NIFTY has had very narrow trading days for the past few days indicating clear uncertainty and lack of direction ahead of the Union Budget on Feb 1. Although the Union Budget is expected to be fairly market friendly, the hesitation in the market (clearly visible on the daily chart) points to a near term shorting opportunity - Target 8300.