simonsays452

simonsays452

what a beauty on the 420min

simonsays452

This was a no-brainer. Kicking myself for not finishing the analysis until last night. Will see how the 10cent news plays out. Still bullish. Maybe 300 need to re-evaluate.

simonsays452

Pissed I didn't finish this analysis until last night and didn't get to put this trade on :(

simonsays452

Breakouts in oil have been very rare over the past year. To that end, I scaled back my bullishness (delta) going into Thursday's NYMEX open by rolling up to 57 calls. Since then, we've seen momentum consolidate, RSI oversold get worked off, and major support levels hold. Boy, does that daily chart look bullish! At the moment, 53.80 is sitting as arbiter for...

simonsays452

I saw my favorite scare mongering headline on Friday: "Institutions and HF are using the rally to sell to retail investors..." Has anyone looked at HF performance over any timeframe, since 2009? Enough said. I'm happy to keep buying SPX futures and options from them! Moving on... Friday's 3:30 ramp (3:27, to be exact) saw a new all-time closing high for the...

simonsays452

For Bryce

simonsays452

Bonds need to catch down to real rates as inflation ought to continue to build. The irrational move higher off of the hotter than expected CPI release has run its course and should swiftly move back < 124'17 (pre-hawkish Yellen surprise) and 124'06 (hot CPI). I'm staying short through new lows and watching for a new high in yields TNX > 2.55%.

simonsays452

For 2017, oil has traded in a very defined $2 range b/w 52 and 54. At the moment, risks are pretty balanced, with a slight short-term downside bias. To that end, I'm long a few 56 APR calls. I'm waiting for directionality @ 53.50ish on a test of wedge resistance. I suspect this directionality will ultimately be a false signal and I plan to trade it accordingly,...

simonsays452

Since Tuesday's US inflation report induced dollar reversal, the Euro has defied interest rate differentials and traded in lock-step with traditional risk assets. After running into ichimoku resistance, momentum stalled, failing to break out higher, and Euro closed the week < 1.062 @ 50% retracement. Price action had moved very very far from monthly VWAP. This has...

simonsays452

Watch 2350 as an arbiter of further momo strength following Friday's 3:30 ramp'd close above 2346. Prior rebounds off of intraday pullbacks point to 2360, while fib extensions add another 2pts, targeting 2362. On the daily view, ES looks toppy and another test of 2338 looks warranted. I'm long Wed 2350 calls. I'll close these on a weak move to/above 2350....

simonsays452

European traders have been dumping bonds all morning, putting an end to yesterday's late day ZN1! bid-fest. The 24m chart has a beautiful short set-up on a beach below rising support at 123'275, which corresponds nicely with a round 2.50% yield. This is a short-term short in a larger bear trend. In the immediate term, I'm targeting 123'140 - 123'090. With...

simonsays452

More complete analysis forthcoming re: Draghi... In short, the "sell the inauguration" trade looks long in the tooth with selling poised to return to treasuries aided by a dovish surprise from Draghi this morning. Front month treasury futures look to have made a head fake breakout on Tuesday AM and have since collapsed through support at 124'070 with a failed...

simonsays452

www.basementmacro.com Draghi doubled down dovishly last week. Key quotes among his presser included: (1) Draghi: "To show that the ECB is going to stay in the markets, to show that it will continue to exert pressure on market prices, though we don't want to distort them, of course." Well, pretty sure they're absolutely trying to distort prices, but...

simonsays452 Updated 

6/1: Bunds still contained below 164.39. Watching for a break in either direction. Short bias.

simonsays452

Bullish bets haven't abated over the last two weeks, despite a 6% decline in the front month contract and a new YTD low in oil volatility. Looking to collect some vol carry and continued downside price drift via Sept puts 45 puts. I see room for a decline down to the 76.4 fib retracement at 41.49. Will look to roll down the 45s to 42s - slightly outside the...

simonsays452

Continue staying short $JPYUSD (Yen strength). The 24min chart has a stupidly perfect setup for a strengthening impulse to 98.787 which coincides with: 100% fib retracement, prior low and a bear pennant breakdown.

simonsays452

With no real support until the 50% fib retracement at 38.76 and consolidation zone support at 37.55, crude looks destined to continue lower. Options markets are pricing August expiry at 36.69 on the downside and crude volatility is breaking out of a quarterly downtrend. Watch price action around psychological support at 40.00 for guidance. I opened AUG 38 PUTS...

simonsays452

Fed Funds futures are predicting a 22.5% probability of a June rate hike. That's 4 points higher than pre ISM data. Dollar continues to strengthen. Unusual for Gold to set new LODs after European close. Speaks to degree and breadth of selling. Futures are beginning for a re-test of 1200.