My contrarian macro trade and overnight H&S on the hourly worked very well. We have a downside target of 1242 based on the H&S, but there's consolidation resistance that coincides with weekly VWAP at 1248. I'll be looking to take some profits at 1248.
Yesterday's strong sell-off in the dollar was a simple re-pricing due to the Fed once again shifting the inflation goalposts, not a signal of a macro trend shift. As US macro data and inflation data continues to roll in stronger than anticipated, expect the market to get concerned about the Fed being too far behind the ball. Gold should resume its descent amidst...
Let's see if that right shoulder forms at 1262ish.
Yes, I'm rather late to the party, but the price action looks great and the chart is screaming 1300. Recently, we've seen consolidation in the 1260 area and the yellow metal has broken out of a symmetrical triangle on the 4hr chart - after a nice fake-out yesterday morning. With uncertainty around ECB stimulus and plenty of momentum behind the metals rally, the...
Wage inflation data came in weak. We saw a test of the recent bullish trend support @ 1250. We'll need confirmation that it will in fact, hold. I was looking for 1240 to enter long. Still sitting and waiting.
If gold is right, we should expect to see rates move higher and in turn, euro to resume its correlation with gold.
Gold's been on a tear - no news there. Prior to last month's Jobs Report, the "macroscape" was one awash in fear of a global recession and deflation - including the US. Markets were taunting the BOJ, equities were tanking, oil couldn't find support and the dollar was being sold. All the while, gold continued its march higher. Why? The headline February Jobs...
With oil being "sold on the news" we're seeing some weakness in both SPX and its funding currencies (JPY and EUR). With futures already trading below support at 1880, watch for a breakdown in SPX below 1883 - the top of monthly consolidation support. I think we are due for a little pullback and wouldn't be surprised to see SPX trade down to support at the 1870...
Since the BOJ announced their NIRP policy, we've seen a massive strengthening in the USD/JPY cross. Yen volatility is highest across major traded currencies and even across most asset classes - oil included! We've seen the bottom TL of the weekly channel hold up as reliable support this week. I ultimately think the market will continue to try to call Kuroda's...
Yesterday's "Goldilocks" API report - not too much larger than expectations, but still a sizable build (>+2mmbb), coupled with crude's overnight price action gives me comfort that short-sellers won't be coming out en mass similar to the prior two reports. We'll still need to wait to see what the EIA reports at 10:30am today, but the moves this morning in crude...
At the moment, we're sitting at important support at 29.60. Below 29.50, we will have confirmation of the H&S pattern and should swiftly move lower. I've been sitting short and will continue to do so. with a target at 27.50.
There's been quite a lot of buzz recently about Gold being on the cusp of a bull run due to global NIRP and the market's pricing out of all but 1 Fed hike through 2017. The technicals support the hype. We've seen two breach solid breaches of bearish trendline resistance extending back to 2012 highs and we've seen a solid base build off of even stronger trendline...
As I predicted, last night's API build served again as a short-covering signal. We're seeing a lot of technical signals pointing towards the 32.50ish level. Keep an eye on this level. One of these signals is the neckline of a possible H&S formation. I'm still a major bear on oil, but don't currently have an open position. Short-covering is fully in force. As I...
This short is both a play on a weaker than expected Chinese Services PMI print this evening and a response to the breakdown in technicals. (I'm also going long EURUSD just for the PMI print.) Today, the market tried to bounce off the bullish trendline support during the second half of the trading day, but failed. In so doing, it breached support and closed below...
Closed this short again today with my target reached at 29.70, this afternoon. The prior two API builds have served as short-covering signals. Typically, we've seen the futures trade down in the immediate after-hours of the build release, followed by short-covering on the European open and later throughout the following day. With support holding at 29.50 and two...
I closed out my prior short this afternoon when we hit the 31.35 target. I waited for directionality on the next leg. AH, we saw bearish and bullish trendline support failures and a breach of the lower range of consolidation support. I've reshorted and targeting 30.30 the 62% retracement with a stop a 31.30
Respect, but don't buy these production cut rumors. In short, nothing has changed on the macro supply/demand front. If anything, the supply glut has worsened this week with Iran, Saudi, and Abu Dhabi having confirmed production increases. Furthermore, the only countries that are actually lobbying for production cuts are the ones who actually can't afford to...
The Chinese currency situation can be boiled down to a few bullets: Concerns about the trajectory of Chinese economic growth Fears of a large scale devaluation waiting in the wings Capital is fleeing from the country at an alarming rate Yuan value is weakening due to all three above PBOC is spending nearly $800bn a year to slow the weakness PBOC can't...