Now that possible recession is on the table, Is the upside limited and possible less then the downside risk? Sp500 on average trades near 15pe and we currently above that near 20-21 pe, with rising rates and inflation risks. $SPY $SPX
SBEB splash seems to be holding and building here. will its expected sales pan out for 2022 and 2023. will this help lead it profitability? or will current high fuel and interest risks slow it down? SBEV
price to sales now around 8. sales growth 144% and 44% expected.
MMTH, The percentage of stocks over their 200 day moving average, is a useful tool for clues of the broad market technical trend. Combined with vix volatility index, which measures option premium of at the money options (implied moves), we can get confirmation of changes prices and sentiment. Vix is also called the 'fear index'.
By looking at the chart made here,...
Nasdaq stocks as measured in gold are discounting quite a lot of bad potential news for the rest of the year. I have outlined possible support zones in the ndx/gold levels. Price to earning and price sales multiples are compressing so far, while some stocks have already seen significant discounts.
Will the market just stall for a decade or 2 as we work through the debt and allow the economy to catch up?
at which debt to gdp and sp500 levels will the debt level be healthy? SPY GLD SPX QQQ TLT IEF DIA VTI AAPL
charting the ratio of dow to gold. dow above, gold below. Look how purchasing power eroded. The dow in nominal dollars went sideways for a decade, while gold rose over 20 times. the dow went from "costing 26 ounces at one point to "costing" only ounce at the peak of golds spike.
Inflation cpi near 7%, future potential rate hikes, FED reducing future purchases. Why would ne money be excited to jump in and buy up riskier paper at rates near 4-5% and stocks in a bear market? At what interest rate and risk premium are junk bonds attractive?
Silver is waiting for the next catalyst. much debate is happening on wether we are facing inflation or risk of deflation next. its hard to say in the short term, as seen in the current directionless trend of silver.
Over the long run, money printing sill be needed to stimulate the economy and dilute the us debt.
In the short run, a decline in asset prices from...
if inflation and interest rates due to debt persist, why wont gold and silver see a bid up?
If gdp and company growth rates slow down, isnt the multiple on stocks a bit enthusiastic?
dow to gold, sp500 to gold, and most traditional measures are on the high side. Why wouldnt I consider the old money, silver for a hold for the next decade?
$silver #silver $gold...
Chart show is ndx over spx. Currently the ndx relative to spx is on the high side of the range over the last 3 decades. With apple, amazon, Microsoft, google at the top of the index market cap list, will they reprice and or get dragged down reflecting some discount in future growth?
Apple specifically has very low growth forecasted for the next 2-3 years. Not to...
Russell2000 has been sideway for most of 2021. is this distribution or the pause before the next launch. the broad market sell off has me thinking bad things for the indices. Price to sales on the biggest names seem to be getting reprices from the lofty growth rates. time will tell, but I dont think this is the bottom.