sobata416

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About me Global macro, psychology, history, politics, fundamentals, technicals, FX, rates, equities, options, R. MFin candidate. Passed L 3 of the CFA program - Jun'15. @sobata416
Joined Canada sobata416
Markets Allocation
79 % stocks 4 % forex 4 % commodities 14 % other
Top Mentioned Symbols
CAT 10% | 3 INTC 7% | 2 DB 7% | 2 JNJ 7% | 2
sobata416 sobata416 DY1!, D,
DY1!: DAX Index - daily chart
28 0 0
DY1!, D
DAX Index - daily chart

The daily W%R is above -20; this indicates positive pressure on the market. Upside levels to watch: 10056.8, ~10350, ~10625, ~10820. Downside levels to watch: ~9820, 9382.9, ~9164, ~8875, 8613.5, 8360.

sobata416 sobata416 USDRUB, D,
USDRUB: $USDRUB - daily chart
112 0 0
USDRUB, D
$USDRUB - daily chart

is it time for a pullback? the daily W%R is now at its lowest level since late August; this indicates that positive momentum is weakening.

sobata416 sobata416 USOIL, 60,
USOIL: the S&P 500 and crude oil - since October 8th, 2014
54 0 0
USOIL, 60
the S&P 500 and crude oil - since October 8th, 2014

the S&P 500 and crude oil were highly correlated between October 8th and October 17th. Since the 17th, their prices have diverged. So who's right? the SPX? (risk on). or oil? (risk off).

sobata416 sobata416 TSLA, D, Short ,
TSLA: $TSLA - daily chart
125 1 1
TSLA, D Short
$TSLA - daily chart

a downwave that's identical in size to the 2014-02-26 to 2014-05-09 fall would take Tesla to ~$203 by 2014-11-14.

sobata416 sobata416 SPX500, D,
SPX500: S&P 500 - daily chart
40 1 0
SPX500, D
S&P 500 - daily chart

the SPX is now testing the August 2014 lows - it's do or die time.

sobata416 sobata416 TD, D,
TD: The Big 6 Canadian Banks - year to date performance.
91 0 0
TD, D
The Big 6 Canadian Banks - year to date performance.

Best performer = National Bank Worst performer = Scotiabank

sobata416 sobata416 CAT, D,
CAT: $CAT - daily chart
27 0 0
CAT, D
$CAT - daily chart

Caterpillar just broke down through its 200 day moving average for the first time since January. Last time was a buying opportunity... ...Is this time different? The daily Williams %R remains below -20; this indicates negative pressure. If $CAT can't hold above ~$98 then it could fall to $92.19 and then ~$90.

sobata416 sobata416 EPI, D, Short ,
EPI: $EPI - daily chart
11 0 1
EPI, D Short
$EPI - daily chart

$EPI: a 50% retracement of the 2014-02-03 to 2014-09-08 up wave would put it @ $19.68.

sobata416 sobata416 HLF, W,
HLF: $HLF - weekly chart
47 0 0
HLF, W
$HLF - weekly chart

a downwave that's identical in size to the 2012-04-23 to 2012-12-24 drop (red arrow #1) would take Herbalife's stock down to ~$36.

sobata416 sobata416 EWZ, D, Short ,
EWZ: $EWZ - daily chart
55 2 1
EWZ, D Short
$EWZ - daily chart

full disclosure: I'm long the Dec19'14 puts @ $50 both the 13 (blue) and 34 (pink) Bollinger Bands have flattened out. the 50 day MA is rising and the 200 day MA is relatively unchanged since late June. the daily Williams %R is at -70; this indicates that pressure might turn negative. based on these observations, $EWZ could see more losses in the near ...

sobata416 sobata416 CHL, D,
CHL: $CHL - daily chart
18 0 1
CHL, D
$CHL - daily chart

both the 13 (blue) and 34 (pink) Bollinger Bands are rising. the 50 day MA (green) crossed up through the 200 day MA (red) in late July (gold vertical line); both MAs are now moving up. the daily Williams %R is above -20 (see bottom panel); this indicates positive pressure. based on these observations, $CHL could see more gains in the near term. upside levels ...

sobata416 sobata416 XAUUSD, W, Long ,
XAUUSD: If you like gold now then you’ll love it at $1434
188 0 1
XAUUSD, W Long
If you like gold now then you’ll love it at $1434

A move up through $1434 (green horizontal line) could take us to $1570, $1790, $1920, and beyond...

sobata416 sobata416 CAT, D, Short ,
CAT: $CAT - daily chart (edited)
91 0 0
CAT, D Short
$CAT - daily chart (edited)

I'm in the November 21, 2014 puts @ $105.

sobata416 sobata416 MCD, M,
MCD: $MCD - monthly chart
40 0 0
MCD, M
$MCD - monthly chart

$MCD has been trading mostly sideways since the beginning of 2012. the monthly W%R appears to be rolling over which could mean negative short-medium term pressure on the stock. since 2008-10-01, McDonald's: price: +108.54% revenues (not shown): +20.8% EBITDA: +41.03% net income: +21.73% but at the same level it was at on 2012-01-02 free cash flow: ...

sobata416 sobata416 JCP, M,
JCP: $JCP - monthly chart
38 2 0
JCP, M
$JCP - monthly chart

J.C. Penney continues to struggle... from 2002-01-01 to the present, revenues fell from ~$32 billion to ~$12 billion... and free cash flow fell from ~$327 million to -$2.15 billion (!!!) furthermore, $JCP is down 90.25% from its peak on 2007-02-01.

sobata416 sobata416 INTC, M,
INTC: Big Tech returns since 1990 - monthly chart
42 0 1
INTC, M
Big Tech returns since 1990 - monthly chart

Apple: +7687% Microsoft: +6893% Intel: +2657% IBM: +691% Hewlett-Packard: -23%

sobata416 sobata416 SPX, W,
SPX: #SPX - weekly chart
150 0 2
SPX, W
#SPX - weekly chart

the S&P 500 is up 197.54% from the bottom in 2009-03-02. what's more is that the average and median sizes of pullbacks have been decreasing. the S&P hasn't had a 10+% correction since early-mid 2012.

sobata416 sobata416 INTC, M,
INTC: $INTC - monthly chart
24 0 1
INTC, M
$INTC - monthly chart

Intel has broken out to the upside... if it continues to run then the next levels to watch are $35.67 and then $38.15 the monthly W%R has been rising since 2012-11-01 - this is indicative of positive pressure. $INTC - now vs then: price: where it was on 2003-12-01 EBITDA: where it was on 2010-06-01 Net Income: where it was on 2000-08-01 Free Cash Flow: ...

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