Fundamentals, OPEC maintaining volume capacity, coupled with technical analysis suggest that the recent rally in Oil is running out of energy. I expect a reversion to the lows expecting a retest of the recent lows throiugh the summer.
Risk to reward ratio looks favourable
EURJPY seems to be occupying a channel which will take it towards 135.00 over the next few weeks.
The rally of the last few days seems to be running out of steam at the upper band of the channel and as sentiment towards relaxation of monetary policy in Eurozone is likely to intensify, Pressure on the Euro is likely to become stronger.
I target is hit I expect...
Gradual short on Euro suggested by deceleration of highs and lows over the past year may suggest gradual correction into 2015. Fundamental weaknesses in Eurozone economies and increasingly desperate monetary policy loosening may also help
Not without risk (what is!) but the balance of probability on this pair is a return towards 1.28. The series of reversals against a declining trend line seems to point towards a continuation of this theme. A negative week ahead would make last week's attempt to break this trend line seem very exposed and bearish candle indeed.
AUD/USD at key support level, fall through this level suggests significant move downwards.
Contraction in Chinese demand fundementally supports bearish technicals.
QE3 may provide complications, but direction of travel for AUD/USD negative.