step_ahead_ofthemarket

step_ahead_ofthemarket Updated 

Commodity and Fixed Income Series : Part 1 Commodities ( Ratios+the most popular and widely traded Commodities ) The Essential note s from this chart are the following( Indicator analysis included in the comments ): {4.5 minute read} To begin with the easiest part of the chart. The supports were identified on the quarterly chart which will be linked in the...

step_ahead_ofthemarket Updated 

Episode 10/11 : US (SPX) Sectors Technical Analysis Series - 31st of July 2019 Brief Explanation of the chart(since everything is labelled on there): (30 seconds read) First and foremost : Similarly to the XLRE Index, the XLC was formed even more recently(2018), so obviously due to the lack of data this analysis should be seen at most as informative . In...

step_ahead_ofthemarket Updated 

SERIES FINALE ; Episode 11/11 : US (SPX) Sectors Technical Analysis Series - 31st of July 2019 (4 Minute Read) Since this is the Series Finale I will try to holistically summarize the whole series of 11 Episodes on all the US sectors. The essential notes from this chart are the following(also included in the comments) : 1 . Compared to the previous...

step_ahead_ofthemarket Updated 

Episode 9/11 : US (SPX) Sectors Technical Analysis Series - 31st of July 2019 Brief Explanation of the chart ( since everything is labelled on the chart ): (1 minute read) First and foremost : The XLRE Index was formed very recently(2016), so obviously due to the lack of data this analysis should be seen at most as informative . Now, let's break down the...

step_ahead_ofthemarket Updated 

This is just a short update (1 minute read) Gold has broken out of the ascending triangle due to the FED's recent dovishness . However, after July how likely would it be for the market to have new expectations ex. rates below 2% ? How long it would it take to get there? Hence, it seems that GOLD is projecting a Bullish CONE in the Long-Term . In the ...

step_ahead_ofthemarket Updated 

Episode 8/11 : US (SPX) Sectors Technical Analysis Series - 18th of July 2019 Brief Explanation of the chart: XLP : Consumer Staples has relatively been one of the worst performing sectors since the last recession. However, recently due to the many uncertainties in the economy(US/CHINA Trade relations), staples have performed quite well (+18.1% for...

step_ahead_ofthemarket Updated 

Episode 7/11: US (SPX) Sectors Technical Analysis Series - 18th of July 2019 Brief Explanation of the chart: XLY- Consumer Discretionary sector index has proven to be one of or if not the best performing sector since 2009. "Rubber-band" theory of recessions does support this bounce in performance based on the negative sentiment in 2009 during which the...

step_ahead_ofthemarket Updated 

Episode 6/11: US (SPX) Sectors Technical Analysis Series - 17th of July 2019 Brief Explanation of the chart : Wave Extension 1.618 target reached 64.34 (based on length of drop from 2009). Sin lines represent the stages of the cycle(it can't always overlap perfectly). Current bullish channel recovery since the drop that happened at the end of 2018 ...

step_ahead_ofthemarket Updated 

Episode 5/11: US (SPX) Sectors Technical Analysis Series - 17th of July 2019 Brief Explanation of the chart: Squares represent past and future structural supports . Since 2009, the bulls have used Monthly MA 50(Weekly 200) support , labelled as the purple line . The latest bullish channel leading to wave 5 can have 3 potential targets : 85$, 94.5$ and...

step_ahead_ofthemarket Updated 

EPISODE 4/11: US HEALTH CARE(XLV) SECTOR Technical Analysis - 16th of July 2019. There is really not much to say. Profits in the health care sector are very reliable on the cycle. Since Trump took office, the cycle extended, and hence it formed a channel as noted in the analysis. One major risk that has always affected the health care sector is regulation and...

step_ahead_ofthemarket Updated 

Episode 3/11: US (SPX) Sectors Technical Analysis - 16th of July 2019 The Tech Sector has indeed outperformed almost all other sectors in the economy, since the 2009 financial collapse( approx. ~520% increase since the troughs of 2009). However, with the new threats to global trade, the tech sector might be the first one to take the worse drop of all the...

step_ahead_ofthemarket Updated 

Safe to say that post 2014 (and even earlier) the renewables have become a serious competition to the traditional part of the XLE sector(coal/gas/oil). Crucial note: Breaking of the black trendline, could symbolize the start of a recession as this would mean that inflation expectation have decreased. In any case, this is just a brief analysis, everything is on...

step_ahead_ofthemarket Updated 

One major detail that stands out is the 30-31$ resistance. In order to continue its bullish run it must close above these levels. Although this might be a tough task since we are in the late stages of the cycle. My focus in the next year will be this exact sector, since most banks will not be able to hit the same profit margins due to the inversion in the T....

step_ahead_ofthemarket Updated 

* Stocks have been on fire the last week since the FED communicated their dovish-ness. Certainly that market confidence is spilling into bitcoin. The correlation between equities and bitcoin has been quite impressive since the bottoms (around 3k). More and more corporate portfolios include bitcoin. For now this looks...

step_ahead_ofthemarket Updated 

Strategy, buy only at breakout.

step_ahead_ofthemarket Updated 

What do we know so far? Wave 3 extended to x4.62 (8400). Wave 4 was pretty violent and it ended up bottoming at 6400 and did not take the traditional ABC path of wave 4's, which has made counting for wave 5 much more difficult. Volume has calmed down somewhat compared to the wave 3 highs. What is BITCOIN currently up to? Momentarily, after hitting the bottom...

step_ahead_ofthemarket Updated 

Can safely say that bitcoin completed Wave 3 (4.62 extension-8400), consequently based on the RSI divergence on 4 hours, we can currently expect a Wave 4. 2 variations for Wave 4 based on Elliott wave consolidation: 7200 (0.236 consolidation level) and 6450 (0.382). Personally I am more inclined towards 7200. Additional structural support levels are 7450 and...

step_ahead_ofthemarket Updated 

On it's way to C(6650). This support might hold, in which case we might have a breakout on D. That will start the wave 5. Other potential supports for BTC are 6500 and 6430. If it doesn't hold above these supports tomorrow, by extension this will lead up to 5950. However by the current structure. This is highly unlikely. It's quite an obvious analysis at this...