What was support is now a strong overhead resistance - December 2016 low uptrend line (see daily chart)
Expect technical sellers to reemerge at $1264 level
Break above will allow buyers to get aggressive again and potentially targets $1295
An AB=CD formation suggest gold to end the year lower
But there are a lot of factors riding at the background - any...
2011 decline has wiped out bullish sentiment from overstretched speculative funds as well as ETF investors.
The gold market found a solid base at $1,046 per oz where the reversal trend has started - which suggest that one cannot be overly bearish towards gold and dips should remain well-supported.
With the trend reversal underway, we see gold price to retrace...
Expect prices to consolidate lower
Watch for a potential converging wedge like pattern
Use Fib as potential rebound level
Sentiment in the complex remain poor
Awaiting for more data to see how gold prices react
Price action converging and a breakout looks imminent
Overall sentiment has turned very bearish as speculative Nymex funds positioned with sizeable short bets
There is value and the risk reward to the upside looks favourable
On a larger scale, it seems that the metal is about to produce a large W correctional move higher
Short term risk is the UTL acting as overhead resistance and potentially forming a bearish head and shoulder formation.
But it may override this if price break free and resume higher to target $1,300.
Daily chart not posted continue to paint that gold is still in an uptrend since December 2016 low so be wary.
- Rather resilient as prices managed to consolidate below psychological barrier at 1100
- Elliott wave count say one more thrust of wave 5
- Wave 5 should equal wave 1 and our estimate is for 1140ish
- This could be a repeat fractal from previous low
- Looking for big resistance then if it plays out
- Next sell off is a big buy but we have to be patient
- Ratio to gold already maxed out with a double top
- The next confirmation is to trade below 1.20 for a breakout
- It could well be the trade for 2017
- Fundamentally, platinum remains in a supply deficit
- Pullback and dip buying is recommended
- Swing trade will take months to complete
- If fractal is of use - go to platinum weekly chart to compare 2002 to...
- Will not be surprise to see gold prices initially break below the neckline before resuming higher for RHS
- Will be invalidated if the sell off took out 1175
- This idea is on the premise that post June or July rate hike gold broke higher and dollar index resumed lower on a wave 5 correction
- Also borrow the idea that a risk off event is coming in the next...
- inverse target hits and 6050 remains a strong support
- only a break below will see more selling pressure
- nearby support comes at 6243 but further weakness may take it lower to 6171
- RSI diverging
- Weekly price level where a swing failure or strong reversal happened are marked in Blue
- Blue prices are areas where I am looking for a swing trade with perhaps wider stop loss
- Some blue prices coincide well with Fib levels - worth using this as further confirmation
- We have trend lines, Fib levels and also weekly swing levels for added confirmation
- uptrend still intact so this is merely a correction
- next wave lower may produce a fake low but until price confirms I shall shut up (and never assume!)
- Watch for 100 DMA as potential rebound zone then the 200 DMA
- Wait for RSI to confirm the move but channel line is pretty clear
- Grey box is potential scale in to buy zone for an inverse play
- A fake break below the bullish channel?
- RSI is away from oversold territory - might bounce if the pattern holds
- Overall, daily chart says bullish momentum remained - upside remain constructive
- a bounce off 1016 level maybe all it needs before another trade higher
- Trade according to the large channel but AB=CD pattern is also confirming the move
- Failed and rejected off the UTL of February low
- Price converging in a triangle wedge
- RSI is oversold but not diverging to support a strong rebound
- Target for 2840 seems possible if it broke out of the wedge
- Was on the watch list for weeks but learnt the very mistake of not setting an alert
- Will not chase this now but wait
- The fork continue to dictate good entry and exit point with high risk reward
- Awaiting for the next setup - trend is still in a bullish channel