We're almost exactly where we were a month ago. Unless half of America decides to spontaneously enter a cross-country road race as stay-at-home orders are lifted, the June contract is going to become a hot potato as expiry nears, just like May. Technicals mean almost nothing in commodity markets (a lesson I've come to learn recently), and are basically worthless...
Figured it would shake out this way despite still being bearish. Profit-taking doesn't last long if the "buy every dip" strategy continues to yield results in the face of dire news (today it's a revision doubling the official projection of US deaths). And it will continue to draw FOMO-money in from the sidelines—until it doesn't. At which point the move down will...
Caveat: here's a very a speculative prediction with very little data to back it up.
After the break oil failed to push above the level that set the very bottom of the bullish bat—ie, the level after which it previously edged up before falling off a cliff.
We could be headed back toward the longterm trend line tomorrow or next week. Conversely, I'd consider a...
Would you have any reason to feel bullish if you had nothing but this redacted chart? The recent pop only gets us back on the road to the true bottom of a balanced market.
There will not magically be more crude storage in 3 weeks when the June contract expires, nor will the demand have risen enough to have called the bottom. Smart money is shorting the hell out...
CD approximates the .618 retrace of DE
AB is the .618 retrace of CD
the blue-green retracement shows the coincidence of CD's fib ratios with key levels:
0.618 is 0.5 of the corona crash
0.5 approximates the top of the s/r
0.382 approximates the bottom of the s/r
a retest of 22426 (0.382 of the corona crash) looks likely
i'll look for a move from 23018, or 23287...
Still unconvinced? Your faith shaken? Here are the time ratios for the moves outlined in my last idea. I've hidden the price retracement ratios for clarity. As before, follow the dotted lines. The smallest fractal dimension at the center of the spiral is off by 10 hours.
This give us DOW 19671 on April 28th.
SLP broke out of an extremely reliable horizontal range today. This stock is less than a year old and trades in small volumes so it may move unpredictably, ie it could be testing out the top of a new range. Any pullback to the top of the old channel looks like an excellent buy though.
Since the reversal on the 16th, two dominant chart patterns—symmetrical triangle and continuation channel—have been playing out. I didn't spot the latter until the price action smashed out of the triangle, but there are some notable fibonacci pivots. Price is currently sitting at the crucial .618 level which it has bounced off of at least four times (depending on...
GDX tested a historic longitudinal trendline on weakening volumes today as equities soared, closing just north of the slowest VAMA band. Next two days critical for GDX and GDXJ . I'm short both ETFs and hope to see a repeat of March 25th.
(Caveat: not only does this post not constitute financial/trading advise, it is the opinion of a rank amateur.)