USD FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: BULLISH BASELINE With headline CPI above 8% and Core CPI seeing another acceleration in the SEP CPI data, the Fed is under pressure to continue hiking rates and ramping up QT. Markets expect another 75bsp hike in NOV and currently prices the terminal rate at 4.89%. The Fed is on a data-dependent (meeting-by-meeting) policy stance,...
Hi there. Price is forming a possible reversal pattern to change its direction. Wait for the price to complete the pattern and watch strong price action for buy.
EUR FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: WEAK BEARISH BASELINE HICP >9% saw another 75bsp hike this past week. ECB sources noted the bank is planning to discuss QT at their Dec meeting. On spread fragmentation, the bank didn’t provide any new info or clarity on how the eligibility might impact countries like Italy and Spain. Until the BTP/ Bund spread breaches 2.55%,...
USD FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: BULLISH BASELINE With headline CPI above 8% and Core CPI seeing another acceleration in the SEP CPI data, the Fed is under pressure to continue hiking rates and ramping up QT. Markets expect another 75bsp hike in NOV and currently prices the terminal rate at 4.89%. The Fed is on a data-dependent (meeting-by-meeting) policy stance,...
USD FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: BULLISH BASELINE With headline CPI above 8% and Core CPI seeing another acceleration in the SEP CPI data, the Fed is under pressure to continue hiking rates and ramping up QT. Markets expect another 75bsp hike in NOV and currently prices the terminal rate at 4.89%. The Fed is on a data-dependent (meeting-by-meeting) policy stance,...
USD FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: BULLISH BASELINE With headline CPI above 8% and Core CPI seeing another acceleration in the SEP CPI data, the Fed is under pressure to continue hiking rates and ramping up QT. Markets expect another 75bsp hike in NOV and currently prices the terminal rate at 4.89%. The Fed is on a data-dependent (meeting-by-meeting) policy stance,...
Hi there. Price is forming a possible reversal pattern to change its direction. Wait for the price to complete the pattern and watch strong price action for buy.
EUR FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: WEAK BEARISH BASELINE HICP >9% saw another 75bsp hike this past week. ECB sources noted the bank is planning to discuss QT at their Dec meeting. On spread fragmentation, the bank didn’t provide any new info or clarity on how the eligibility might impact countries like Italy and Spain. Until the BTP/Bund spread breaches 2.55%,...
USD FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: BULLISH BASELINE With headline CPI above 8% and Core CPI seeing another acceleration in the SEP CPI data, the Fed is under pressure to continue hiking rates and ramping up QT. Markets expect another 75bsp hike in NOV and currently prices the terminal rate at 4.89%. The Fed is on a data-dependent (meeting-by-meeting) policy stance,...
EUR FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: WEAK BEARISH BASELINE Inflation >9% saw a 75bsp ECB hike in September. Post-meeting sources noted the bank is planning to discuss QT at their October meeting. The President showed more communication tact by not giving any clues on estimates for the terminal rate. On spread fragmentation, the bank didn’t provide any new info or...
GBP FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: WEAK BEARISH BASELINE A looming recession has been a key source of Pound weakness and has kept pressure on Sterling despite ongoing BoE hikes. But there is a new threat in focus. It seems the PM’s new fiscal plan, even though putting downside pressure on inflation and lowering growth risks, has drastically increased debt concerns....
EUR – The euro dropped back below parity against the dollar on Thursday after the European Central Bank raised rates by 75 basis points, as expected, but hinted at a slower pace of future increases. Commenting after the announcement, Vanda Research noted: “The ECB is living on the edge of a dovish pivot. It’s clear that this is a central bank that wants to front...
Hi there. Price is forming a possible reversal pattern to change its direction. Wait for the price to complete the pattern and watch strong price action for buy.
USD – The dollar sank more than 1% against a basket of peers on Wednesday as weakening economic data firmed views that the Federal Reserve will slow the pace of its hiking cycle, sending the euro back above parity with the greenback for the first time in a month. CAD – The Canadian dollar weakened on Wednesday after the Bank of Canada raised interest rates...
GBP – Sterling rallied to a six week high on Tuesday on improved risk sentiment as Rishi Sunak became Britain’s latest prime minister. Nevertheless, risks for GBP remain tilted to the downside, as the UK’s bleak economic outlook is ultimately likely to dominate the currency’s long term performance. Indeed, Convera succinctly argues: “Beyond a brief honeymoon...
AUD FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL BASELINE Ongoing issues with China’s economy remain a question mark for the AUD. As long as China’s potential for recovery remains uncertain, the path for the AUD remains the same. The RBA surprised this past week with a 25bsp hike, sparking some speculation that the bank could be finalizing their hiking cycle sooner than...
GBP FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: WEAK BEARISH BASELINE A looming recession has been a key source of Pound weakness and has kept pressure on Sterling despite ongoing BoE hikes. But there is a new threat in focus. It seems the PM’s new fiscal plan, even though putting downside pressure on inflation and lowering growth risks, has drastically increased debt concerns....
EUR FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: WEAK BEARISH BASELINE Inflation >9% saw a 75bsp ECB hike in September. Post-meeting sources noted the bank is planning to discuss QT at their October meeting. The President showed more communication tact by not giving any clues on estimates for the terminal rate. On spread fragmentation, the bank didn’t provide any new info or...