CPCE put/call ratio, SPX/VIX ratio and CNN fear/greed index all close to previous highs. Watching to see if the high-low-high time equality marks a significant top.
34 weeks for the double top. Looking for 21 weeks down for current wave completion. Right now, watching to see if a triangle forms before the 5th wave down to 2300, and then a larger 10 week rally goes back to the 2600 area. If the current wave 4 is a zig-zag now and not a triangle, then will re-evaluate.
While everyone was paying attention to the SPX NDX and DJI, the NYA was showing the early divergence. Following a parallel pattern, the 13th month would be FEB 2019, which corresponds to NOV 2008. Almost every indicator I follow confirms a 3rd wave down. A 5 week average of the advance/decline line which I have been doing by hand for decades is even below the...
Updated DJI chart. Projecting this wave's rise to be equal to Wave 1 (73.38%). The b wave of Wave 1 was 26 months from the 2009 low. Wave 3 was 43 months (1.6 x Wave 1). Wave 5 is closing in on 26 months. Even if this up move is only finishing wave 3 (the alternate count that is super bullish), there still should be a nasty correction once target is reached....
Any new high should create a 3rd Monthly RSI diversion peak. Should be a struggle to break through. There was a reversal spike on the Daily chart for blowout earnings. Also, see a monthly chart of SOX and TXN for similarities.
Original DJI target of low to low = low to high was reached earlier than expected. Next target I am looking at is 26700 (.382 to .618 ratio from 2009 low), but I am also keeping a close eye on the NASDAQ since last Friday it finally reached its inflation-adjusted 2000 high. Long term charts that are inflation-adjusted can be very helpful.
Low to Low (2009-2016) and Low to High (2016-2018) is a valid pattern. Appears that we may be in wave 3 of final wave 5. After the next pullback, a rise to the 24000-24200 area would also provide a .382 to .618 ratio from the 2016 low.
