Fib Trace A isn't finished yet
* HSI support found at 22,265 (76.4% support)
* Temporary peak at 24,313 but i) it hasn't reached 23.6% resistance (24,493) and ii) RSI hasn't reached 70 yet
So scale down. and look at Fib Trace B
* Fib Trace B support found YESTERDAY at 23,252 (61.8% support)
* Next resistance should be at 23,900-23,956 (Fib B 23.6% resistance, ...
China A share
* Weekly chart: already very overbought.
* Daily chart: negative divergence
* Catalyst: stock connect with HK, long term positive. But lack of inflow (lots of unused quota) on second day proves that even in the presence of stock connect it's not necessarily a one way street in the short-term
Since breakout from triangle / descending wedge (see weekly chart), China A shares has gained ~20%
Long term bull probable, but short term overbought
Over last three month's highs, MACD and RSI both showed marked divergence
Correction likely coming, which could last over a month
HSI has been trading in range but still an overall bull the past few years.
HSI is likely to continue to rise but in ranges. Those who understand China and Hong Kong will know there're a number of very compelling bull and bear factors on the horizon.
HSI P/E at historic low of ~10x only -- historically always a long-term win when entered at this valuation
Most straightforward way to foretell an S&P 500 top will be by observing massive divergence in MACD and RSI.
Use weekly chart for better visibility.
This happened in the 2000 peak and the 2007 peak.
My prediction is that we have quite some time to go before S&P 500 turns bear. We will need to see a lot more obvious divergence (and volatility) before this ...